Rajendra Akerkar | राजेंद्र आकेरकर

The next three months will be decisive for climate change. It's because most climate scientists expect the global average temperature to decrease. If that doesn't happen, that makes it likely that the existing projections are underestimating future warming. The past year has been in an above-average temperature phase partly because of a natural quasi-periodic climate cycle called the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). You might also have heard of it as the El Nino-La Nina years. According to a recent report (June 17) from NOAA, we are just out of the warmer El Nino phase and now in a neutral, intermediate phase, that is expected to turn to the colder La Nina towards the end of the year. Report here: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a… One of the consequences of this transition will probably be a very active hurricane season. That 2023 was so hot on the global average might have been a statistical outlier. My impression is that most climate scientists at the moment think it was. Or maybe it's just what they hope. Some are worried there is more to it and that the models have gotten something wrong, that the climate sensitivity has been estimated to be too low or that the impact of declining aerosol levels has been underestimated. The scary truth is that no one really knows.