Dad. Hired gun political&party strategist. Traveler. Man is fully responsible for his nature and his choices - Sartre.
Zemun
Joined June 2009
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One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
I ovo treba znati o novoj situaciji u USA 👇
Trump will REMAIN President, but what he CAN'T do now:
1. *Can't pass any law:*
Needs Parliament. With Democrats at 90, all his bills will be blocked.
2. *Can't get money:*
Parliament controls the budget. No funding for his MAGA projects, Wall etc.
3. *Faces Impeachment Risk:* Democrats can start investigations and even move impeachment.
4. *Can't appoint Judges/Officials freely:* Senate will block his picks.
5. *Can't do big foreign deals:*
Trade deals, war funding needs Parliament nod.
In short: He will stay in the White House, sign Executive Orders, but Parliament and Courts can overturn them.
He becomes a *Lame Duck President* - President in name, powerless in reality.
#USMidterms
Sve sto treba da znate o izborima u USA 👇
🚨🇺🇸 This may be the GOP's WORST election night since Watergate in 1974.
Republicans are facing major setbacks as Democrats flip North Carolina's U.S. Senate seat and secure victories in key races nationwide.
The GOP lost 48 House seats, 4 Senate seats, and 4 governorships following Nixon's resignation in 1974.
Today, several races remain undecided; it’s too early to determine whether 2026 will rival that historic defeat.
Nixon wasn't on the ballot in 1974, but his party paid the price...
Sound familiar?
Source: AP, Reuters, WaPo / Writer: Marie
Često se setim @DenisKolundzija ali ovo je jedan od onih dana kada mnogo fali jer je izborni dan u USA.
Koliko ima da pričamo kada se ponovo sretnemo jednom...
Znam da malo vas ovo interesuje ali bili su i predsednicki izbori u Brazilu.
Evo i sa izlaznošću u 18.00...
Čak i najniži scenario (68,5%) je iznad II kruga predsedničkih 2008. (68,4%). Ako se poslednja dva sata ponašaju kao na bilo kojim izborima od 2006, ovo će biti najviša izlaznost od svih izbora bez izbora 2000.
Evo sada projekcije kada se unese i izlaznost od 17.00
Tempo usporava. Od 16h do 17h je novih 3,6 p.p., a 2023. u istom satu 5,1 p.p. Ovo je prvi sat u kome je 2026. sporija od 2023. Ako se to nastavi, konačna izlaznost ide ka donjem delu raspona. Međutim ako nastavi ovaj trend može da bude još niža.
Prvi put za 25 godina se ne usuđujem da prognoziram konačnu izlaznost na izborima. Zato sam odgovornost prebacio na AI. Uneo sam mu izlanost po satima od izbora 2006 godine pa na ovamo. I evo šta je napravio:
Pravi Zemunac ode prvo da glasa pa stoji u redu. Onda ode kod Petrovića na burek gde opet čeka u redu.
Iz knjige: Kako se to zapravo radi, poglavlje 27: The Longest day.
Postoji jedna rečenica koju izgovorite verovatno hiljadu puta i svaki put vas neko pogleda kao da ste rekli nešto jako glupo.
Izbori se ne dobijaju na izborni dan, ali se tada najlakše gube.
U Srbiji ima oko 8.300 biračkih mesta, a to znači da vam treba najmanje toliko kontrolora. Idealno i toliko zamenika, jer ljudi se razboljevaju, ljudi ne dođu, ljudi u sedam ujutru jave da ipak ne mogu. Dakle, najbolje po vaš rezultat, oko 16.600 imena.
To nije spisak koji sastavljate između dva posla, kad stignete. Predaja imena je jasno propisana zakonom, a to je petnaest dana pre izbora. Posle toga je gotovo, nema dodatnih rokova i nemate kontrolore.