Humans are fungible compute. I write about economics and AI. Fix the money, fix the world. #Bitcoin
Joined September 2011
- Tweets44K
- Following7.6K
- Followers37.6K
- Likes429K
Pinned Tweet
There is going to be mass unemployment of white collar workers by 2028 and it will collapse the entire debt based Ponzi scheme western governments have relied on for decades to paper over the cracks of a fake economy.
The bubble will burst, they will try print again and hand out UBI, but this time they'll get either hyperinflation or social revolution, or both.
Bitcoin hits $1m USD by end of 2028 as the world grapples with the biggest sovereign debt crisis in the history of mankind.
We are very close to the End Game now.
There is no stopping this.
"AI will create more jobs than it destroys"
BREAKING: Microsoft, $MSFT, is offering buyouts to 60,000 workers as part of the company’s efforts to cut costs amid AI adoption, per Bloomberg.
Personnel on select teams in the US, Canada, India, and the UK at a vice president level and below will be eligible.
This reflects ~27% of Microsoft's total workforce.
This is exactly what is happening across most companies right now.
They may not all be firing staff, but many are simply not backfilling roles because AI is enabling existing staff to operate with much more leverage than before.
Doing a design project for a company in Asia atm. A $500k USD fee. Normally, id have 2-3 staff and visualization contractors helping out. This project has mostly been completed via chatgtp Astra modelling by itself in Blender.
Within last 3-4 months, AI has removed the need for 3-4 staff. I am not firing anyone yet, but i have no need to employ new people.
I dont think people understand what is coming.
Bill Gates is one of the only tech guys actually telling the truth about what a world with superintelligence will look like.
It very obviously leads to human economic obsolescence.
We can debate the timelines, but it's clear that on the current trajectory, for the vast majority of jobs, humans will not remain in the loop.
Why would you hire a human at the cost of labour when you can hire an AI or humanoid thousands of times faster, smarter and cheaper at the cost of compute instead?
Running 24/7, no sick days, no annual leave, no complaints... It's an employer's dream. The individual incentives all lead this way.
At a macro level it's like a snake eating its own tail because aggregate demand across the economy will be nuked which means demand for goods and services sold by companies will decline with it in sectors where AI's are not net buyers.
I don't think this will take 20 years. It's closer to 10 years. The world in 2035 will look nothing like the world today.
ビル・ゲイツ「これから20年間、世界は大混乱に陥る」
AIが全員を豊かにする前に訪れる「地獄の20年」――人間の仕事は完全に消滅する（2026年10月22日のインタビュー）
「豊かな未来が来る前に、人類は『20年間の大パニック』を生き残らなければならない」
世界を裏から見通す男ビル・ゲイツが、AIとロボットが完成する直前に訪れる「最も危険な20年間の過渡期」について明かした警告をわかりやすく👇
・「今後20年間」は勝者と敗者に分かれて社会が大荒れになる
AIが全人類を豊かにする天国が来る前に、これから約20年間は「猛烈な混乱の時代」が続くと断言。これまでの常識がガラガラと崩れ去り、仕事を奪われる負け組と、莫大な富を握る勝ち組に社会が真っ二つに引き裂かれます。
・家づくりも農業も手術も「激安ロボット」が全部やる
特に中国などが莫大なお金を突っ込んで、器用に手足を動かす人間そっくりのロボットを猛スピードで開発しています。あと数年から10年もすれば、家を建てる大工仕事も、野菜を育てる農業も、医者の外科手術もすべてロボットがタダ同然のコストでこなすようになります。
・人間の労働は「完全に不要」になり、誰も働けなくなる
この開発を今すぐ世界中でストップさせない限り、人間が生活やお金のために働く仕組みそのものが完全に消滅します。問題は、全員が働かずに暮らせるゴールにたどり着くまでの「これからの20年間」、世界が耐えきれずに崩壊するリスクだとゲイツは冷徹に警告しています。
要するに、「『いずれAIとロボットが何でもタダ同然で作ってくれる時代が来るが、それまでの20年間は仕事が消滅して格差と大混乱で世界中が地獄のサバイバルになる。人間が働く必要が完全になくなるまでの大パニックをどう生き残るのか』とビル・ゲイツが衝撃の予告をしている」ということです。
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
この投稿はビル・ゲイツのThe Verge「Decoder」ポッドキャスト発言を大幅に誇張しています。ゲイツはAI移行期の混乱を懸念しつつ豊かさへの到達と管理・選択の重要性を述べており、「地獄の20年」や即時停止・崩壊の直接警告はありません。
theverge.com/podcast/101540…
businessinsider.com/bill-gates-ai-…
observer.co.uk/news/technolog…
All this and yet the sun is still shining and the grass is still green
So let me get this straight over the last two weeks we have:
-major cyber attacks almost constantly
- US bases prepping to be completely cut off for 90 days
- UK telling its citizens to prep for 90 days without and outside assistance or supplies
- mass sell off of stocks to the point it’s looking like tomorrow will be black Monday
- Threats of a major false flag to push the US deeper into conflict with Iran
- former USAID workers actively planning and implementing a color revolution
- major vulnerabilities found in the US power grid (how would of thought after buy critical components from people who want us dead for decades)
- crash of the AI bubble
- fuel stockpiles critically low across the globe
- millions of foreign combatants flooding into western countries
- probably 15 more I’m forgetting
I don’t know about you but I’m going to be working remote next week so I can be with my family IF something big kicks off
Rational Aussie retweeted
Peter Thiel gets a lot right, but boy did he nail it when he said the wordcels would actually be better off than the math and science bros due to AI.
The underlying reason for this is the structure of language reveals and amplifies human preferences, whereas science and maths are verifiable domains searching for the truth.
It really doesn't matter what GPT-10 can do, I will still shitpost because I like to post, and if you enjoy my worldview you will still enjoy reading it.
Sure, GPT-10 will be capable of superpersuasion and genuinely insane insights, but it will not have the weights of my own neural network, so it doesn't matter.
It's the same reason that I don't like asking an AI to summarise anything... To summarise something you need to know what my personal mental model of the world would think of the text/video being consumed.
And since uploaded intelligence doesn't exist yet you can only do a very crude approximation of that. Even when continual learning comes online it will still be but a blunt simulation of my mind rather than my mind itself.
Worth remembering this. Anything that relates to human preferences will be amplified due to AI as people seek the compliment.
Peter Thiel gets a lot right, but boy did he nail it when he said the wordcels would actually be better off than the math and science bros due to AI.
The underlying reason for this is the structure of language reveals and amplifies human preferences, whereas science and maths are verifiable domains searching for the truth.
It really doesn't matter what GPT-10 can do, I will still shitpost because I like to post, and if you enjoy my worldview you will still enjoy reading it.
Sure, GPT-10 will be capable of superpersuasion and genuinely insane insights, but it will not have the weights of my own neural network, so it doesn't matter.
It's the same reason that I don't like asking an AI to summarise anything... To summarise something you need to know what my personal mental model of the world would think of the text/video being consumed.
And since uploaded intelligence doesn't exist yet you can only do a very crude approximation of that. Even when continual learning comes online it will still be but a blunt simulation of my mind rather than my mind itself.
Worth remembering this. Anything that relates to human preferences will be amplified due to AI as people seek the compliment.
Rational Aussie retweeted
The people who thrive over the next decade will be those who mentally abandon the idea of 'work as life' and start thinking more like a billionaire does:
You are already rich, now what do you want to do with your time? What side quests actually interest you? What is worth exploring regardless of any associated economic utility?
You will literally have an AI that can solve basically any problem you have if given enough compute, or help you explore anything you are interested in, including optimising your own life for what gives you personal fulfilment.
The people that do best will be like water. Everywhere and nowhere. Not tied down to any specific career or idea per se - doing it for the love of the game.
And some of you might say 'RA, that makes no sense, I've got bills to pay.'
Yeah, you need a plan to make it for about another decade, then that's really not gonna matter too much.
And if you start thinking like a billionaire you're just not gonna care that much. Go follow the side quest in your spare time then convince a venture capitalist to give you money for it. Pay yourself a salary with that and go exploring.
In short:
- Careers are dead
- Side quests are an infinite game
- Health-maxx, get jacked
- Be a good person. Reputation is also an infinite game.
All the other stuff... Career this, dollar here dollar there - who cares? We will have entire economic zones where superintelligent humanoids are building other superintelligent humanoids. The output of the global economy is going to be absurd. Orders of magnitude higher than almost anyone believes.
Stay flexible.
Rational Aussie retweeted
It's important to remember that most people are still living in the world where they'll be an accountant for 30 years in a computer job and then retire and grow old.
At some point over the next few years all of these people will undergo extreme ontological shock as all the assumptions, systems, institutions, they built their understanding of the world on collapse due to the advent of AGI.
If uploaded intelligence exists at any point in the future there's no good reason to think you haven't already been uploaded and chosen the timeline where you get to experience the most turbulent and exciting transition in human history: the Birth of Superintelligence.
The people who thrive over the next decade will be those who mentally abandon the idea of 'work as life' and start thinking more like a billionaire does:
You are already rich, now what do you want to do with your time? What side quests actually interest you? What is worth exploring regardless of any associated economic utility?
You will literally have an AI that can solve basically any problem you have if given enough compute, or help you explore anything you are interested in, including optimising your own life for what gives you personal fulfilment.
The people that do best will be like water. Everywhere and nowhere. Not tied down to any specific career or idea per se - doing it for the love of the game.
And some of you might say 'RA, that makes no sense, I've got bills to pay.'
Yeah, you need a plan to make it for about another decade, then that's really not gonna matter too much.
And if you start thinking like a billionaire you're just not gonna care that much. Go follow the side quest in your spare time then convince a venture capitalist to give you money for it. Pay yourself a salary with that and go exploring.
In short:
- Careers are dead
- Side quests are an infinite game
- Health-maxx, get jacked
- Be a good person. Reputation is also an infinite game.
All the other stuff... Career this, dollar here dollar there - who cares? We will have entire economic zones where superintelligent humanoids are building other superintelligent humanoids. The output of the global economy is going to be absurd. Orders of magnitude higher than almost anyone believes.
Stay flexible.
It's important to remember that most people are still living in the world where they'll be an accountant for 30 years in a computer job and then retire and grow old.
At some point over the next few years all of these people will undergo extreme ontological shock as all the assumptions, systems, institutions, they built their understanding of the world on collapse due to the advent of AGI.
Rational Aussie retweeted
AI is massively deflationary, not inflationary.
All digital goods and services will become abundant first, then eventually once you have mass humanoids all physical goods and services become abundant too.
All prices will trend towards the cost of compute, which will trend towards the cost of energy, downwards.
As this happens, humans will become unable to compete economically because why would you hire a human that is 1000x slower and 1000x more expensive and 1000x less effective at achieving a goal than an AI?
Eventually this will cause human unemployment to massively increase.
Those humans have lots of debt eg mortgages they won't be able to pay, which will cause a massive credit crunch and likely a banking crisis that will catalyse a sovereign debt crisis.
We are very close to the End Game of the fiat monetary system.
You should probably export all your tweets and print out physical copies of them.
When the AI Swarm hacks Twitter you'll have a hardcopy of all your shitposts printed and framed.
Everyone else will be tweetless, starting from scratch, and you'll be a king amongst men. An IRL shitposter.
I would strongly urge literally everyone that sees this to immediately check your Google 2FA settings and also buy a Yubikey.
Lock down any accounts you care about with a Yubikey.
So basically, today PHP got two critical bugs that let anyone run code on your server without even logging in, which is bad, and then the details leaked before the patch was even out, which is worse, and it works on WordPress and MediaWiki and Magento and Joomla and Laravel, and Censys says like 1.5 million servers are running a version with no fix, so the NSA was like "take your system offline," and the FBI was like "take your system offline," and CISA and the UK and CERT-EU were all like "take your system offline," and then the Prime Minister of Japan, the actual Prime Minister, posted at 5:55 in the morning telling 48.8 million people to take their system offline, so everyone took their system offline, like the Dutch cybersecurity agency took its own website offline, and the Dutch parliament went offline, and the Port of Rotterdam went offline, and Finland and France and Denmark started pulling government sites, and Wikipedia went down, and Archive.org went down, and Asana and GOG and Something Awful went down, and the University of Vienna's webmail went down for some reason, and that's just PHP. Because GitLab also dropped a CVSS 10.0, which is the highest score they give out, for a bug that's been there since 2014, so that's every self-hosted GitLab for twelve years, and then LiteLLM 1.107.0 got hijacked and shipped a credential stealer and a remote access trojan in every single wheel and the Docker images, including latest, and you didn't even have to import it, just installing it was enough, and it's the second time this year, and then Railway paused every deployment on the entire platform because someone got into the environment variables, so now everyone has to rotate every secret they've ever stored there, and TiDB Cloud said someone was walking around inside with stolen credentials for basically a month and an extortion group says they took 10.6 terabytes, and Zeabur got breached for the second time in two months and is just shutting down, like the whole company, and Node.js patched remote code execution and a TLS bypass, and CISA says Plex is being actively exploited, and someone took over 300 Tor exit relays to steal SSH passwords, and SafePay ransomware has hit over 600 critical infrastructure orgs, and India's biggest bank filed a data loss incident, and Japan has been in an official state of emergency in cyberspace since October 9, which honestly explains the 5:55 AM post. Oh, and eMudhra, a certificate authority that's issued over 60 million certificates, whose entire job is proving websites are who they say they are, was supposed to be using private keys that are random numbers over a hundred digits long, and one of them was 4. Just 4. And the others were like 66 and 237. Anyway, it's Wednesday.
What you are supposed to do is pivot into health-maxxing. Just get jacked. It's still scarce.
If you like working hard you're now better off pursuing difficult physical pursuits than intellectual ones.
I'm an optimistic person, and I believe in making the best out of the world I live in. I generally hate lamenting about the woes of the times. I believed in the value of hard work and work itself. I believe that if the work you want to do is not profitable, it is on you find ways to get that work done. But I find myself in a world of diminishing returns, where there are already no incentives for learning, and soon no reward for any work at all. What am I supposed to do? If all I know is to work, and to learn?
AI is massively deflationary, not inflationary.
All digital goods and services will become abundant first, then eventually once you have mass humanoids all physical goods and services become abundant too.
All prices will trend towards the cost of compute, which will trend towards the cost of energy, downwards.
As this happens, humans will become unable to compete economically because why would you hire a human that is 1000x slower and 1000x more expensive and 1000x less effective at achieving a goal than an AI?
Eventually this will cause human unemployment to massively increase.
Those humans have lots of debt eg mortgages they won't be able to pay, which will cause a massive credit crunch and likely a banking crisis that will catalyse a sovereign debt crisis.
We are very close to the End Game of the fiat monetary system.
This is the battle that will determine the next century and so few even understand it's coming.
Pro-AI versus anti-AI.
It will heat up enormously by the time humanoids exist at scale, and in the early 2030s when brain computer interface tech becomes viable.
To merge or not to merge, that is the question.
Rational Aussie retweeted
I think a lot of people have this massive misconception that in an AI agent-agent economy humans will remain in the loop.
Yet if you think about this for more than two minutes it does not make any sense.
Anyone who thinks in terms of systems and incentives already understands this.
It's like, if you're running a business, the human has to go home at 5pm and you don't see them the next morning until 9am.
Do you want that guy, who is sometimes grumpy, sometimes stupid, sometimes emotional, and mostly uni-dimensional and incredibly slow, making decisions, or do you want the 'orchestrator AI swarm' that is 500IQ and works 24/7 making decisions?
Which one gives you a better chance of beating your competitors, making more money, and delivering a higher value good/service?
I think you've gotta be batshit insane to answer 'the human'.
A continuation of the status quo leads to the human inevitably being removed from the loop at every layer through sheer survival of the fittest.
And some of you might reason 'well the government won't let that happen'...
Brother, look around you. The government is asleep at the wheel. They still haven't worked out how to turn on a laptop, let alone understand AI, let alone understand that this is a species-altering evolution not just a new technology 'tool'.
They don't get it. And even if they did they are almost powerless to stop it because if they implement 'human in the loop' regulations, then capitalism plus game theory ensures the entrepreneurial humans just pack up and set up their company in the one country that doesn't have those laws.
Humans probably need to accept we will become economically useless over the next few years, and a discussion needs to be had at the highest levels as to what that means and what world we are heading towards.