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Luke Benz (@recspecs730) profile picture

Luke Benz

@recspecs730

Statistician @EliLillyandCo | PhD @HarvardBiostats | @Yale ('19) Interests: Sports/Stats/Health

 Indianapolis, IN
lukebenz.com
Joined March 2016
  • Tweets4.8K
  • Following810
  • Followers4.9K
1.5KMedia
Photo by Luke Benz (@recspecs730)Photo by Luke Benz (@recspecs730)Photo by Luke Benz (@recspecs730)Photo by Luke Benz (@recspecs730)Photo by Luke Benz (@recspecs730)Photo by Luke Benz (@recspecs730)Photo by Luke Benz (@recspecs730)Photo by Luke Benz (@recspecs730)Photo by Luke Benz (@recspecs730)Photo by Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
2026 FIFA World Cup Simulations Top 5: 🇧🇷🇪🇸🇦🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇫🇷
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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Each and every morning, CT boys and girls high school soccer are updating playoff seeds/power rankings based on our formula. It's been fun to follow along @DataWithBliss @recspecs730 nitter.gq/GametimeCT/status/2098…
GametimeCT (@GametimeCT) profile pictureGametimeCT@GametimeCTSep 11
NFL analytics executive helped create Connecticut's new CIAC soccer tournament formula ift.tt/sDBla3o #ctbsoc
NFL analytics executive helped create Connecticut's new CIAC soccer tournament formula

NFL analytics executive helped create Connecticut's new CIAC soccer tournament formula

NFL data analyst, whose daughter plays high school soccer, helped the CIAC develop a new tournament formula.

ctinsider.com
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Luke Benz retweeted
Red Sox (@RedSox) profile picture
Red Sox
@RedSoxSep 20
YOUR 2026 RED SOX ARE POSTSEASON BOUND!
TEXT: "TICKET PUNCHED Postseason 2026 Punch Back" IMAGE: Red Sox Postseason Clinch graphic featuring 35 cutouts of the 2026 roster on top of a textured grey background with black baseball elements. Images of the pitching staff are seen in the top section in black and white while position players are underneath wearing the home white uniforms. Red text reading “Ticket Punched” and a white MLB Postseason 2026 logo are in the center of the graphic. A white logo reading punch back is seen in the lower right corner.

ALT TEXT: "TICKET PUNCHED Postseason 2026 Punch Back" IMAGE: Red Sox Postseason Clinch graphic featuring 35 cutouts of the 2026 roster on top of a textured grey background with black baseball elements. Images of the pitching staff are seen in the top section in black and white while position players are underneath wearing the home white uniforms. Red text reading “Ticket Punched” and a white MLB Postseason 2026 logo are in the center of the graphic. A white logo reading punch back is seen in the lower right corner.

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So @DataWithBliss @recspecs730 and I have been in the lab
GametimeCT (@GametimeCT) profile pictureGametimeCT@GametimeCTSep 11
NFL analytics executive helped create Connecticut's new CIAC soccer tournament formula ift.tt/sDBla3o #ctbsoc
NFL analytics executive helped create Connecticut's new CIAC soccer tournament formula

NFL analytics executive helped create Connecticut's new CIAC soccer tournament formula

NFL data analyst, whose daughter plays high school soccer, helped the CIAC develop a new tournament formula.

ctinsider.com
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Luke Benz retweeted
Ron Yurko (@Stat_Ron) profile picture
Ron Yurko@Stat_RonAug 11
Uncertainty around a team w/ transfers is far greater than those without, this Indiana vs Clemson comparison from 2024 hits at this (based on work I've presented this past year) - and we see accounting for transfers helps with preseason forecasts #collegefootball #sportsanalytics
Image from Ron Yurko (@Stat_Ron)
Image from Ron Yurko (@Stat_Ron)
Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) profile pictureAwful Announcing
@awfulannouncingAug 11
Scott Van Pelt made his case why preseason college football rankings are less useful than ever in the transfer portal era. awfulannouncing.com/college-…
Scott Van Pelt decries college football preseason rankings in transfer era: 'You're selling stories'

Scott Van Pelt decries college football preseason rankings in transfer era: 'You're selling stories'

ESPN's Scott Van Pelt offered a rant about why preseason college football rankings are less useful than ever in the transfer portal era.

awfulannouncing.com
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Luke Benz retweeted
Red Sox (@RedSox) profile picture
Red Sox
@RedSoxJul 22
WWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
TEXT: “Longest Franchise Win Streak Since 1946” IMAGE: Cutout of Jarren Duran with Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela in their white home Red Sox City uniform overlaid on the number “15”

ALT TEXT: “Longest Franchise Win Streak Since 1946” IMAGE: Cutout of Jarren Duran with Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela in their white home Red Sox City uniform overlaid on the number “15”

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Luke Benz retweeted
Red Sox (@RedSox) profile picture
Red Sox
@RedSoxJul 19
XII
TEXT: "12 Straight" IMAGE: Cutouts of Ceddanne Rafaela in green Red Sox City Connect uniform celebrating overlaid on the number "12" with Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu jumping in celebration in yellow Red Sox City Connect uniforms."

ALT TEXT: "12 Straight" IMAGE: Cutouts of Ceddanne Rafaela in green Red Sox City Connect uniform celebrating overlaid on the number "12" with Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu jumping in celebration in yellow Red Sox City Connect uniforms."

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World Cup Final
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
James Dalton (@DTownsDogs) profile pictureJames Dalton@DTownsDogsJul 9
Replying to @recspecs730
Will you have the R8 Predictions available today? ⚽️
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Silver Bulletin (@NateSilver538) cleans up in R32 to take the lead over me and @Polymarket. Nate 2nd of 46 in @Futbolmetrix1 contest PM 3/46 Me = 15/46
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
Futbolmetrix (@Futbolmetrix1) profile pictureFutbolmetrix@Futbolmetrix1Jul 4
WC2026 Sophisticated Prediction Contest, standings after the Round of 32. Positions 1-15 (plus Perfect Foresight - explanations of the scores below).
Image from Futbolmetrix (@Futbolmetrix1)
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Brazil/Morrocco runs help me most relative to PM/SB.
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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R16 Predictions
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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R32 predictions
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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Remaining odds for knockout stage
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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Luke Benz retweeted
Luke Benz (@recspecs730) profile picture
Luke Benz@recspecs730Jun 28
How teams knockout round odds changed over the course of the group stage. You can visually see how 🇰🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 tumble over the days of waiting.
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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After group stage, Polymarket leads w/ me and Silver Bulliten tied. For about 90s in 🇩🇿🇦🇹 game it looked like I might take it. On to the knockouts!
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
Luke Benz (@recspecs730) profile pictureLuke Benz@recspecs730Jun 23
Comparison of WC models: me, @NateSilver538, and @Polymarket Applying log-scoring, which is used in @Futbolmetrix1 contest. Silver Bulletin has most "wins" but majority are small wins on teams very likely to advance. I lead in log-score and brier score (next tweet)
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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How teams knockout round odds changed over the course of the group stage. You can visually see how 🇰🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 tumble over the days of waiting.
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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Group J/K/L Most Likely R32 Outcomes
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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Most likely knockout round games
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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Ecuador win bad for other 3rd place teams. Scotland on life support
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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Most likely R32 Outcomes for Groups G/H/I
Image from Luke Benz (@recspecs730)
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