Why should you #HODL your #Bitcoin and never sell it? I know why. A short thread 👇

Just wrapped moderating the Cross-Border Financial Innovation session at @gftn_official. Appreciate the time and perspective from everyone in the room today, the conversation was amazing. Special thanks to: Central Bank of Azerbaijan (@Central_Bank_AZ), Bank of Mongolia (@Mongolbank_mn), Cambodia’s securities regulator, @binance (@KhomiakovKyrylo), @Cobo_Global (@LuuuucasY), @BSTDB, @Bybit_Official / Bybit Georgia (@bybit_georgia) / @brcapital_fund (Shota), Keepzme, @liminalcustody (Rajesh Sabari), and the local operators. But GFTN is not yet done. Tomorrow 3:30-4:10pm on Summit Stage (Kavkasioni Ballroom): Investor Thesis in 2027: Headwinds and Tailwinds. With: > Ganesh Rengaswamy, Managing Partner @QuonaCapital (@grengaswamy) > Rachit Parekh, Partner @AccelIndia (@rachit_parekh) > Shokhrukh Yulchiev, MD Central Asia, Silkbridge Ventures > Moderated by Shota Lomtadze (@Bybit_Official / Bybit Georgia) We’ll talk about the selective cycle ahead, how macro, regulation, and exits are reshaping appetite, while AI, tokenization, and new infrastructure open new lanes. Where the real risk-adjusted opportunities sit, and where the yield actually comes from as capital shifts from venture promises to liquid digital-asset strategies and stablecoin rails. Agenda: tbilisifinancesummit.gftn.co…

10 years ago, when we were starting all of this, we couldn't dream of multiple central bankers, heads of central banks, and the vice president of the Chinese bank talking about integrating blockchain and stablecoins as their rails. This is amazing! Speaking was Yang Jun of the Bank of China at @gftn_official Tbilisi Financial Summit 2026.

Quick update on the Cross-Border Financial Innovation session I’ll be moderating tomorrow at @gftn_official: Shota Lomtadze (Bybit Georgia/@brcapital_fund) and Rajesh Sabari (@liminalcustody) are also joining. Full group: > Akhundov Sadig, Central Bank of Azerbaijan (@Central_Bank_AZ) > Davit Kikvidze, FinTech Association of Georgia > Kyrylo Khomiakov (@KhomiakovKyrylo), @binance > Larisa Manastirli, @BSTDB > Lucas Yang (@LuuuucasY), @Cobo_Global > Nika Kiladze, Keepzme > Rajesh Sabari, @liminalcustody > Shota Lomtadze, Bybit Georgia/@brcapital_fund > Tamta Ivanishvili, BLC Law Office > Uyasakh Jargalsaikhan, Bank of Mongolia (@Mongolbank_mn) > Dr. Vin Pheakdey, Securities and Exchange Regulator of Cambodia 3:00-4:30pm, Oct 27. Looking forward to the discussion.

It’s not that venture didn’t work. Venture was very successful for us. We were simply even better at liquid stuff. A quick correction: we haven't really shifted toward liquid. Since day one, our fund has had two directions: VC and liquid asset management/active trading. We just haven't made a VC investment in a while. I explain more about the approach in this piece: u.today/sponsored/from-ventu…

I’ll be joining the Investor Thesis in 2027: Headwinds and Tailwinds panel at GFTN @gftn_official on October 28 in Tbilisi. With: > Ganesh Rengaswamy, Managing Partner @QuonaCapital (@grengaswamy) > Rachit Parekh, Partner @AccelIndia (@rachit_parekh) > Shokhrukh Yulchiev, Managing Director, Central Asia, Silkbridge Ventures > Moderated by Shota Lomtadze, Partner @brcapital_fund This is the day after the cross-border innovation session which I'll moderate. Different conversation, more about where capital is actually looking (and not looking) heading into 2027. xitter.cf/rezosh/status/21123702…

What we do on CeFi: > Market making > Arbitrage > Market-neutral strategies (earn on spread, flow, and pricing inefficiencies rather than pure direction) > Directional strategies as well > Trade Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, BNB, and hundreds of altcoins > On perpetuals: one of the largest professional altcoin books, ~$100M daily turnover on the CeFi side alone (currently the biggest part of the business) What we do on DeFi: > Market making on spot DEXes (among the leaders on several venues) > Solvers (e.g. BRRRolver on @CoWSwap consistent top rankings by rewards) and liquidity provision > Delta-neutral positions (same idea as market-neutral, only on-chain) > Most liquidity provided without taking a directional bet > Professional stack: data collection/analysis, collocation speeds, MEV models (avoid others’ MEV, then optimize our own), order-flow analysis and optimization > Algorithmic rebalancing and risk-parameter weighting across a multi-asset universe, using correlations to layer market-neutral strategies on top > This cannot be run as a retail participant, we are on that side of the trade DeFi itself has mostly been lending, borrowing, and providing liquidity into automated market making. (Hyperliquid-style trading feels closer to a CeFi experience than pure DeFi.) Of course, this is all I can disclose, and the future looks very exciting.

I had to be honest with myself: if you take the current DeFi or crypto rails and give them to the whole world today, it will be a huge failure and disaster. We still have too many holes to close. We’re almost there, but we still need time.

Talked to Alex Vinyas from @CoWSwap some time last month, and the way he explained intents lined up with what I’ve been saying about the agentic economy. He described an intent as a signed message the user puts out: I want to trade A for B at this price, and I don’t really care about gas, slippage, or how the route gets split. > Solvers, professional third parties that settle these trades for a living, compete to offer the best price, and the winner settles it. The surplus goes back to the user instead of getting extracted along the way. That’s already the shape of the agentic economy, an agent can sign what it wants without having to manage the execution, and something else competes to fill it. xitter.cf/rezosh/status/21100137…

Are we out of the bear market? We made our internal dashboard public to show what the data tells us. Many big names think the bear is over: > Strategy's @saylor (Oct 13): bear market is over; bottom slightly below $60k; expects clear move back above $100k. > Fidelity's @TimmerFidelity (Oct 10–11): bear market has ended; move above ~$80k confirmed a double bottom; past bears typically 9–12 months. > Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick: recent sell-off likely finished (matches prior drawdown magnitude this cycle); year-end rally is the base case. ...but our data gives us a condition. Bitcoin needs to hold ~$85k into year-end, or clear $100k this year, to say the bearish phase is over. Here's the scenario card we have: > A. (30%) Cyclical Bear, $40–55k. Oct 2025 was the cycle top; bear grinds into a Q4’26–Q1’27 bottom. > B. (55%) Range-Bound/Institutional, $52–85k. Same bear diagnosis, but the ETF floor and lower volatility keep it in a wide chop. This path tops exactly at the $85k hold line. > C. (9%) Delayed Extension, $85–150k. Oct 2025 was only a local top; macro clearing (Iran deal, Fed cuts, oil) reignites flows. Levels matter, and holding those levels matters more. We don’t treat a single narrative or green candle as confirmation. Live chart: rezoshmertz.com/research/

I will be moderating a talk on Cross-Border Financial Innovation: Defining What the Region Can Test Together at GFTN @gftn_official on October 27 in Tbilisi with: - Akhundov Sadig, Executive Director, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan (@Central_Bank_AZ) - Davit Kikvidze, Chairman, FinTech Association of Georgia - Kyrylo Khomiakov (@KhomiakovKyrylo), Regional Head of CIS, Central Asia and Africa, @binance - Larisa Manastirli, Director of Financial Institutions, @BSTDB - Lucas Yang (@LuuuucasY), Head of Sales & Solutions, @Cobo_Global - Nika Kiladze, CEO, Keepzme - Uyasakh Jargalsaikhan, Director of the Payment Systems and Technology Department, Bank of Mongolia (@Mongolbank_mn) - Tamta Ivanishvili, Partner & CEO, BLC Law Office Dr. Vin Pheakdey, Deputy Director General, Securities and Exchange Regulator of Cambodia Good to have regulators, development banks, and operators in the same room. Let's figure out together what can actually move across the corridor.

Elon Musk’s Universal High Income, or any Universal Basic Income, is a TIMING problem. Disruption is happening NOW, while Abundance promised later, and the temporary AI-adjacent jobs (prompting, auditing, labeling) created are just scaffolding that will also become obsolete. AI and robotics are supposed to create a surplus that eventually funds higher income for everyone. That surplus shows up first as lower costs and higher margins inside the companies that own the models, the compute, and the data. It DOESN'T automatically become money you can distribute. Until it does, someone still has to finance the gap, either the people getting displaced or governments printing against productivity that hasn’t arrived yet. Same issue if you look at agents as a source of new value. In trading, they can add volume and participation, but they will never replace HFT (we've been doing this for years). Latency, risk management, and infrastructure edges stay with specialized systems. Agents just make it cheaper and faster to put more activity on the market than the stacks we used to run. Activity goes up (Jevon’s paradox still applies), but more activity isn’t the same as more value, especially during the transition. The extra volume doesn’t automatically flow back to the agents generating it. Latency, risk, and settlement still sit with the specialized systems above them. The inflection point is the problem, financing the period before it is the actual constraint.

Sharing another win for BRRRolver and why it matters. This is consistency rewards = how close our solver stayed to the best surplus for users. Again: @CoWSwap doesn’t let users pick a solver, they sign intents, solvers compete on surplus. The protocol pays the ones that stay near the best price FOR THE USER. xitter.cf/brlabsxyz/status/21111…

Two things I can't be flexible on. 1. I cannot be flexible on just handing a wallet to a trader and just let them trade, but they can also withdraw capital. This is unacceptable, despite it being your own capital, but even more so when you are managing other ppl's capital. That's why we built our own infra for Polymarket, cos they didn't have corporate accts. 2. I also can't be flexible with people. I don't have the discipline for small steps, unlike other things. I like working with my hands, and I like big steps. So finding people who can solve the problem, or who already solved it somewhere, Building everything yourself is possible, but it's very difficult. It takes a long time, you lose time, and you lose speed.