Durham, NC
Joined March 2009
- Tweets4.1K
- Following432
- Followers317
- Likes20.4K
Robert Olinger retweeted
This is a dire warning. Trump and the federal government will interfere in the election. They have already started.
A small group of U.S. national security officials has been discreetly advising state and congressional lawmakers on how to prepare for the possibility that the Trump administration will attempt to interfere in the midterms, according to people involved. wapo.st/3WjVke5
Robert Olinger retweeted
Mr. Vice President, if you’re going to insult me at least have the guts to tag my account.
Robert Olinger retweeted
Strong bipartisan, well-attended, bicameral call this morning with President @ZelenskyyUa expressing our support for Ukraine against Russia’s crimes and savagery, and dismay that Trump has taken the side of the evildoer. (Again.)
Robert Olinger retweeted
I will be speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team this week to discuss Starshield, sanctions, and other matters pertaining to the defense of our strong ally, Ukraine. I will be assuring President Zelenskyy that anyone who attempts to limit the use of Starshield for Ukraine will be fully investigated and will be held fully accountable, to include public congressional oversight hearings, and immediate harsh and punitive budget cuts to any responsible agency or agency head.
Congress will unequivocally reaffirm that Ukraine is an indispensable ally to the United States, that Russia is a self-declared enemy of the United States, and that the United States will 100% support and defend the people of Ukraine in their fight for their own freedom against this brutal, illegal, and unprovoked Russian invasion.
The United States must provide any and all defensive equipment that Ukraine needs to defend itself. The United States must not import a single drop of Russian oil. Sanctions against the Russian regime must be harsher and stronger than they’ve ever been before. Each and every one of these items will be brought to the House Floor—and each and every one of these items will pass on the House Floor by an overwhelming margin.
This is, after all, what Ronald Reagan would do. And this is what we will do now. Ukraine can, and will, defeat Russia. #PeaceThroughStrength
Robert Olinger retweeted
To Russia With Love, Signed Donald @WSJopinion
Trump Waives Sanctions and Tariffs Under the Lindsey Graham Law | The Editorial Board, WSJ wsj.com/opinion/to-russia-wi…
Robert Olinger retweeted
Vladimir Putin appears to have concluded that he cannot win the war in Ukraine on the battlefield. His strategy now is to grind Ukraine down. How scandalous that Donald Trump has become his best weapon economist.com/leaders/2026/1…
Robert Olinger retweeted
Sanctions relief will continue. I think the diesel deal and the move regarding the Lindsey Graham Act are not the end of it. Unfortunately.
It’s unfortunate because we all had great respect for Lindsey. He devoted his life to America. We had an excellent relationship with him. And shortly before the tragedy, Lindsey was in Ukraine. He always supported us very strongly and pushed for as much assistance to Ukraine as possible.
It’s difficult without him, I’ll be honest. I want to thank both Democrats and Republicans who supported his bill. That was a major victory: this truly bipartisan support. And now, the decision to undo all of this, to block all of it, seems wrong to me. And it definitely helps only the Russians. It only fuels their satisfaction and their desire to keep killing people. This certainly does not stop the war.
From answers to journalists’ questions. (1/3)
Robert Olinger retweeted
“we will pay any price….to assure the success and survival of liberty.” Is this still true? Do we prize liberty or do we prize power and purse? No more clear test than the choice between Ukraine and Russia. Abandon Ukraine and we abandon liberty. Eventually even our own.
Robert Olinger retweeted
We don’t use Starlink for our responses inside Russia. We use Starlink to intercept jet-powered “shaheds” that attack our civilians and kill families.
Starlink wasn’t turned off – its speed was reduced. And when the speed was reduced, we were unable to intercept a certain number of jet-powered “shaheds.” We couldn’t use a tool that helps protect people. That’s very painful and frustrating.
We also use Starlink for mid-range strikes against enemy military targets in our temporarily occupied territories. We couldn’t do that when the restrictions were in place. And third, what matters most is people. Our warriors, who spend weeks and months on the front line, receive food and water delivered by drones using Starlink.
Has the speed been fully restored to what it was before? No. Is it being restored now? Yes.
From a conversation with media representatives in Brussels. (2/3)
Robert Olinger retweeted
After reading Rubio's speech in Athens about the greatness of Western Christian civilization, I wonder if he knew that Ukraine is also a Western Christian nation? Ukraine is also a democracy.
Robert Olinger retweeted
Emergency services are still providing assistance in dozens of our cities and communities. Repair crews and rescuers are working to deal with the aftermath of Russian attacks. For practically all of yesterday and throughout last night, a massive “shahed” attack was underway. The drones kept coming in waves, and there was not a single hour when our skies were clear of them. From midnight yesterday through 9 a.m. today, there had already been more than 850 “shaheds” – and this comes precisely at a time when the speed of our defensive capabilities is being artificially restricted. We managed to shoot down some of the “shaheds.” But unfortunately, there were also dozens of hits. One of the largest attacks was carried out against our Kirovohrad region. There were also strikes in Kyiv and the surrounding region, the Dnipro, Odesa, Rivne, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. Three people were killed in Kropyvnytskyi and three more in the Dnipro region. My condolences to their families and loved ones.
It is obvious that Russia deliberately chose to escalate its attacks after receiving sanctions relief and seeing attempts to pressure Ukraine. Russia exploits every such opportunity and must be held accountable for what it does. Strong decisions are needed to end this war. Ukraine needs steady support, above all in defending our skies. We need HONESTY from our partners about this war: It is important that everyone in America stand not with the aggressor, but with our efforts to protect lives, end this war, and guarantee security.
Robert Olinger retweeted
Still outraged by the "diesel deal", so reposting:
Trump Has Shamelessly Abandoned Ukrainians, michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p…
Robert Olinger retweeted
“In under two years, we’ve gone from ‘you’ve got no cards’ to ‘don’t play your cards’.”
Ukraine FM Andrii Sybiha at the Warsaw Security Forum.
Possibly the line of the conference.
Robert Olinger retweeted
It is clear that Putin does not read Truth Social, and his “shahed” drones follow a different set of instructions. But we in Ukraine immediately supported the idea of an energy ceasefire, as we did more than once for months when we ourselves put forward this idea. We agreed to an energy ceasefire. The American team knows very well what this means for us.
We do not have major oil reserves, large oil export capacity, or dozens of oil refineries. In Ukraine, we have just one oil refinery, and it was badly damaged by Russian strikes long ago. We import large amounts of diesel and other oil products. And I am grateful to all our neighbors, especially Poland, for helping us with our energy needs. For us, the key issue is electricity. Russia started its campaign of strikes against our power generation and power grid years ago. And every winter, including this one, Russians try to make these attacks even more intense – we have power cuts every single day.
For Russia, of course, gasoline shortages and burning oil refineries – because of our strikes in response – are painful. And these are not the same volumes that could be lost because of the crisis in Hormuz. But if Russia wants us to stop our long-range strikes against its oil refineries and oil exports, then Russia must stop its strikes against our energy system and critical infrastructure. This is only fair.
From a speech at the Warsaw Security Forum. (1/3)
Robert Olinger retweeted
We currently see no signs from Russia that it wants to end the war. We see no basic steps toward de-escalation. Everyone is talking about diesel and forgetting about grain. In a month or two, everyone will start talking about an agricultural crisis. There won’t be enough food for countries across Africa, some Asian countries, and the Middle East, because we export millions of tons of grain to these very markets. And now Russia is blocking the sea.
The United States isn’t feeling the effects of this, which is why the focus is only on energy. This is another challenge. It’s hunger. And it can affect many countries. And we need to think about everything and everyone, because we all live on this planet. We can prevent many different crises before they even begin and avert the challenges they bring.
From remarks at the Warsaw Security Forum. (2)
Robert Olinger retweeted
Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.
- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.
The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.
So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability.
The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is a group of reactions laughing at various quirks of the models, hallucinations, etc. Yes I also saw the viral videos of OpenAI's Advanced Voice mode fumbling simple queries like "should I drive or walk to the carwash". The thing is that these free and old/deprecated models don't reflect the capability in the latest round of state of the art agentic models of this year, especially OpenAI Codex and Claude Code.
But that brings me to the second issue. Even if people paid $200/month to use the state of the art models, a lot of the capabilities are relatively "peaky" in highly technical areas. Typical queries around search, writing, advice, etc. are *not* the domain that has made the most noticeable and dramatic strides in capability. Partly, this is due to the technical details of reinforcement learning and its use of verifiable rewards. But partly, it's also because these use cases are not sufficiently prioritized by the companies in their hillclimbing because they don't lead to as much $$$ value. The goldmines are elsewhere, and the focus comes along.
So that brings me to the second group of people, who *both* 1) pay for and use the state of the art frontier agentic models (OpenAI Codex / Claude Code) and 2) do so professionally in technical domains like programming, math and research. This group of people is subject to the highest amount of "AI Psychosis" because the recent improvements in these domains as of this year have been nothing short of staggering. When you hand a computer terminal to one of these models, you can now watch them melt programming problems that you'd normally expect to take days/weeks of work. It's this second group of people that assigns a much greater gravity to the capabilities, their slope, and various cyber-related repercussions.
TLDR the people in these two groups are speaking past each other. It really is simultaneously the case that OpenAI's free and I think slightly orphaned (?) "Advanced Voice Mode" will fumble the dumbest questions in your Instagram's reels and *at the same time*, OpenAI's highest-tier and paid Codex model will go off for 1 hour to coherently restructure an entire code base, or find and exploit vulnerabilities in computer systems. This part really works and has made dramatic strides because 2 properties: 1) these domains offer explicit reward functions that are verifiable meaning they are easily amenable to reinforcement learning training (e.g. unit tests passed yes or no, in contrast to writing, which is much harder to explicitly judge), but also 2) they are a lot more valuable in b2b settings, meaning that the biggest fraction of the team is focused on improving them. So here we are.