@ryanbedwards

dep director @devpolicy + econ assoc prof @ouranu. priors @dartmouthecon @stanford @ouranu @pmc_gov_au @uq_news. very personal account. šŸ§‘ā€šŸ§’ā€šŸ§’+šŸŒ»+šŸ¦‹

 Canberra
ryanbedwards.com
Joined May 2011
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1.4KMedia
Some "overdue" news: my first paper on palm oil, started over a decade ago, was accepted for Christmas and is in print open access at the @JIntlEcon today. It's quite different from earlier versions, and the (excellent) review process improved it a lot. sciencedirect.com/science/arā€¦
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This is so cool, and I think it shows the right attitude/direction of work from two leaders in the field. It is very reaffirming to consider these faculty members as two of my intellectual role models :)
Econometrics Papers@eBlogs9h
AI in Econometric Theory: An Example Isaiah Andrews, Anna Mikusheva arxiv.org/abs/2610.35831 [ššŽššŒšš˜šš—.š™“š™¼]
This note contains a story and a paper. The paper is about the admissibility of two-stage least squares with weak instruments, a topic we have worked on together since 2019. The story is about how we (or, rather, our LLMs) wrote the paper, and some thoughts on what this may mean for our field.

ALT This note contains a story and a paper. The paper is about the admissibility of two-stage least squares with weak instruments, a topic we have worked on together since 2019. The story is about how we (or, rather, our LLMs) wrote the paper, and some thoughts on what this may mean for our field.

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Worth reading the preamble in full. (as for the rest of the paper, good luck to you) Econometrics is about as close to math as you get in econ, so this doesn't shift my priors much about what models can do in our field in the near futureā€”the authors themselves say "we were not surprised that AI could do this." Very interesting nevertheless. They call for "a serious and ongoing re-evaluation of how our field assesses research outputs and allocates resources going forward" ā€” fair enough, but one challenge will be that AI capabilities will have a ton of heterogeneity across subfields. I also noted the extremely clear and transparent description of how and where AI was used, which couldn't be further from the wild west that we're seeing on the applied side.
Econometrics Papers@eBlogs9h
AI in Econometric Theory: An Example Isaiah Andrews, Anna Mikusheva arxiv.org/abs/2610.35831 [ššŽššŒšš˜šš—.š™“š™¼]
This note contains a story and a paper. The paper is about the admissibility of two-stage least squares with weak instruments, a topic we have worked on together since 2019. The story is about how we (or, rather, our LLMs) wrote the paper, and some thoughts on what this may mean for our field.

ALT This note contains a story and a paper. The paper is about the admissibility of two-stage least squares with weak instruments, a topic we have worked on together since 2019. The story is about how we (or, rather, our LLMs) wrote the paper, and some thoughts on what this may mean for our field.

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Replying to @paulnovosad @writes__code
Friendly amendment, theyā€™re slop merchantsā€”they donā€™t even produce their own slop
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Replying to @writes__code @jt_kerwin
Youā€™re over-thinking it. 95% of these are posted by slop-producers who are suddenly afraid of being outed.
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Why have autism diagnoses in Australia tripled in just a decade? A new study published in the Journal of Health Economics reveals the NDIS itself accounts for 47% of all new autism diagnoses since 2013. Read more on Austaxpolicy: austaxpolicy.com/nearly-halfā€¦ #AusPol #NDIS #Health

Nearly half of Australia's autism diagnoses caused by the NDIS - Austaxpolicy: The Tax and Transfer...

In our recent study, we examine whether the introduction of the NDIS itself has driven the surge in formal autism diagnoses.

austaxpolicy.com
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what a millennia this last decade has been
Hillary Clinton
@HillaryClinton26 Oct 2016
Happy birthday to this future president.
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New at JIE: "Trade shocks and human capital: Evidence from Brazilā€™s trade liberalization" by Marcos Y. Nakaguma, Arthur A. Viaro doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.20ā€¦
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Big news. Woodside walks away from Greater Sunrise. Sells its 33% stake to Timor's state-owned oil and gas company Timor Gap for around $280 million AUD. Timor Gap will have full control of the asset after the sale. Some big questions looming now for Dili (and for Canberra)
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Media Watch takes aim at the FM over Australia's silence on the Samoan PM's campaign against the Observer and the "fundamental" importance of a free press: "so fundamental, sheā€™s clearly decided to give a free pass to the Samoan PM" abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodā€¦

Ep 38 - Trouble in paradise - Media Watch

TheĀ Samoa Observer's tough reporting has led to an undemocratic deep freeze of the country's only daily newspaper.

abc.net.au
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šŸšØNew paper and (the usual) excellent @paulnovosad summary alert!
Paul Novosad
@paulnovosadOct 26
New paper: Cities in South Asia are hotbeds of upward mobility for everyone, but especially for women. This is the urban-minus-rural difference in the adult education rank of a child growing up in a bottom-half household. šŸ§µ 1/
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PhD students sometimes ask me what I mean by "big question" My answer: first *you* should be convinced that the Q is interesting and important. Then tell me why *you* think it's interesting and important. If you can't do that, you're toast, regardless of data & methods.
Cheryl Wu
@cherylwooooOct 26
The best lesson I learned from Uchicago Econ during my undergrad was: ā€œFind an interesting and important question first, then find methods to study it.ā€ Not the other way around.
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The opportunity to migrate even temporarily/seasonally is *really good* for migrant workers and their families. Families of migrant workers see lower poverty, greater food security, invest in assets & reduce debts Paper by @melaniemorten @BMagaloni Cubillos & @AliceYiqianWang
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Teaching Intro to Econ is fun because itā€™s the easiest class your science students will ever take and the hardest one ever for some of the humanities students.
Entoma@Entoma2657Oct 25
Taking a break from my quantum mechanics homework so I ask my girlfriend what she's working on and she says "A problem set for econ. We have to graph the equation P = 36 - 3x" and ngl I actually lost it.
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Bottom line: there's a big female urban mobility advantage in South Asia. Exactly why this is and how long it has been so are open questions. We also don't yet know how much this holds elsewhere in the world. To be continued! 21/
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"I Just Ran 2 Million Regressions" pt. 2
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Orban as Secretary-General, this is good scriptwriting honestly
Elliot Kaufman
@ElliotKaufman6Oct 25
New: Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor OrbĆ”n for UN Secretary-General. The US has encouraged OrbĆ”n to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea of a joint U.S.-Russia-China candidacy. WSJ: wsj.com/opinion/viktor-orbanā€¦

Opinion | Viktor OrbƔn, U.N. Secretary-General?

Trump officials push the idea of a U.S.-Russia-China joint candidate.

wsj.com
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Universities do this during every fiscal crisis they face. UMN did it back in 2020 and iiuc in 2008 as well. UW did it last year. This is just encouraging early retirement for people who are close to retiring anyway.
Anthony Bradley
@drantbradleyOct 23
It's over. The higher ed dam has broken: Clemson is offering a voluntary separation program (VSP) to 452 eligible faculty and staff. Eligible employees who accept the offer will receive a lump-sum payment equal to nine months of their base pay.
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If only there were a journal dedicated to political economy that is ranked similarly to other top economic journals.
Jostein Hauge
@haugejosteinOct 23
Economics is fundamentally political. We cannot escape this fact. The so-called ā€œfree marketā€ is constructed by laws, maintained by institutions, and enforced by states. The choice between austerity and stimulus reflects deeper beliefs about responsibility, fairness, and social obligation. The mandates of central banks are products of political decisions. The emphasis placed on price stability in Western central banks rather than, say, regulating private finance reflects value judgments as well as political lobbying. One of the biggest differences between mainstream economics and heterodox economics is that the former often disguises political choices as technical ones. Economics has never been, and never will be, a value-free science, no matter how much today's mainstream economics tries to present it that way. At its core, economics is shaped by ideologies, human morality, competing interests, social norms, and political priorities. Pretending otherwise does not make economics more rigorous. It just makes it more dangerous.
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This is dead right, and not just with respect housing. Itā€™s the whole increasingly provincial/parochial mindset that seems to be so loud and visible (though im deeply suspicious these are actual informed preferences of most Australians). Utterly unambitious, uninspiring
Chris Richardson
@ChrisEconomistOct 23
This is a terrific and terrifying read from @insteconomics Australia truly is the anti-Abundance nation It's self-inflicted damage We keep shooting ourselves in the foot and then wondering why we can't sprint anymore
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*respect to
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