Data driven research: Evaluating protocols & navigating trends.
Eindhoven, NL
Joined December 2014
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Gameplan for 2026 and onwards:
If we compare 2023 (early bull part) to 2026 (since july) we notice that we might visit STH cost basis and Q25 (indicates that 25% of short term investors are in profit).
For 2023; prices were $34k (Q75), $30k (Q50), $28k (STH cost basis), $25k (Q25). BTC price reach Q75 and then dropped around Q25 to gain fuel for the next leg. I will share the plot in the comments.
For 2026; prices are $90k (Q75), $78k (Q50), $75k (STH cost basis), $68k (Q25).
BTC price does not have to go $75k or $68k, but if history is an indicator then btc might visit STH cost basis and Q25 zone in the future (these are moving prices and will change every day).
I believe short term holder behaviors drive the market in alignment with macro factors.
I'm 80% in position and keeping 20% dry powder for this zone to buy strong alts and then wait for the main bull run.
Which alts: my podcast/article research model shows around 40-50 alts (allocated for 9 so far): near, eth, hype, lit, aero, grass, peaq, cards, geod. Some of them are for mid to long term; and some of them are to wait until narrative to play out (peaq, geod, cards). I plan to keep the number of alts I hold below 12.
Remaining alts in my scope (not in order): ai inference and data projects such as vvv, pod, pha, orbio, data, vana, reppo; options platforms such as drv dime syn; main defi platforms such as uni aave kmno ena morpho ethfi syrup jup ray pendle; tao subnets sn4, sn44, sn50, sn61, sn64; trending projects (privacy, tokenization or similar) such as zro, rail, bp, sui, zama, prl, ondo, pump, etc.
I'll do deep dives for most of these (and additional tokens) in the near future. I feed all podcasts and articles every sunday to my model and re-run to find a meaningful alpha.
Onchain data indicate $150k - $200k for the next cycle top if everything plays out as expected (nobody will say no to $250k btc of course). I believe we are in preparation of beatiful days. So, it's better to search for good projects to outperform btc (I'm still 50% in btc but plan to reduce that soon to buy alts). That's the game we play in the end.
Samet Ulucay retweeted
Bitcoin ve altcoinlerle ilgilenen herkesi bekliyoruz ⏳
Kripto psikolojini mi bozdu? Üzülme. Overlockçu ayağına geldi. Gel vatandaş...
@sametulutea ve @cihan0xeth
1 Kasım Pazar 21:30'da twitter üzerinde yayında olacağız.⏰
⚠️Yok kayınvalidem👹misafirliğe gelecek, yok oğlan duvara tırmanıyor, yok hanımın halleri var trip atıyor vs.. bahanelerin varsa üzgünüz... 😭
Teknik sebeplerle tekrar yok. Kayıt yok.
Bildirimleri açın kaçırmayın. 🤬
Bitcoin ve altcoinlerle ilgilenen herkesi bekliyoruz ⏳
Kripto psikolojini mi bozdu? Üzülme. Overlockçu ayağına geldi. Gel vatandaş...
@sametulutea ve @cihan0xeth
1 Kasım Pazar 21:30'da twitter üzerinde yayında olacağız.⏰
⚠️Yok kayınvalidem👹misafirliğe gelecek, yok oğlan duvara tırmanıyor, yok hanımın halleri var trip atıyor vs.. bahanelerin varsa üzgünüz... 😭
Teknik sebeplerle tekrar yok. Kayıt yok.
Bildirimleri açın kaçırmayın. 🤬
Similar pattern to 2020 and 2023. $BTC and strong alts are close enough to value zone.
True market mean: $78k
50W MA: $76k
Short term holders cost basis: $76k
200D MA: $73k
No matter the news is, crypto market finds its way if you have a strategy & patience.
Pretty good alignment with Citrini, Blockworks, Delphi teams. Worth to check. I plan to add a few more to this list with details this weekend.
Tokens you should at least consider in the top 300:
$VVV - Focused mission, usage is very strong, looking to own their own hardware. Think the split-entity structure discussion has run its course.
$ZEC - Arguably the most reflexive asset of the year. Strong narratives surrounding SoV and privacy. Shielded pool usage is a strong feedback loop.
$ZRO - Still misunderstood as overpriced middleware, now transforming into full financial infrastructure via the Zero L1 and lzAtlas. Strong institutional traction and deflationary tokenomics (all while fundamentals-mogging the LINK Marines).
$SKY - Profitable, scaled, and yield-bearing stablecoin that is the closest thing to a “DeFi Federal Bank” we have. Tokenomics improving and barring Tether equity going live, it’s the cleanest expression of being long stables (no, I don't want to buy CRCL).
$LIT - Strong “HYPE-beta” while differentiating itself on the zero-fee/retail zone. Strong tokenomics, only issue is living in Hyperliquid’s shadow. Will likely have similar thoughts around $VAR though the RFQ angle opens up some fun ideas.
$GRASS - Getting real usage from their customers, but still want more transparency (onchain would be even better).
ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47 - Shedding their baggage and focusing on a key privacy primitive in Covenants. Focused on real-world use cases both on- and off-chain.
$DRV - Team has been singularly-focused for years and finally getting the recognition they deserve. A bet that options can in fact survive and thrive onchain - some Hyperliquid risk.
$AERO - Strong metrics and sticky users. Downside is that it’s chain-dependent to a certain extent and ve(3,3) doesn’t have the best track record (AERO could be the exception).
solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp - Undeniably strong business model and nice team/ops moat make this a tough king to topple in its vertical. Only open question is token alignment, but team has acknowledged/has made it a priority.
hyperliquid:native - Perpify the world. Don’t think I have to sell you on Hyperliquid.
solana:METAwkXcqyXKy1AtsSgJ8JiUHwGCafnZL38n3vYmeta - A bet on the fat longtail of medium-scale businesses as well as a memetic play against token-doomerism.
pearl-2:native - SoV coin that can grow alongside AI compute (and not compete against it). Bit hyped right now, Coinbase listing soon - which will be interesting to watch.
When people say there aren’t enough investible coins, just send them this. If all else fails, just buy $BTC.
Back here with less pressure. Not seeking perfection every time I write about something.
Just sharing what sticks with me from podcasts, good research papers, and the occasional rabbit hole.
No daily posting target. No polishing every thought to death. Just writing when I feel it + when I have something worth to share.
I have this layout (GPT+LM), been following many people & research houses in silence, feeding all the content to AI to make better sizing/picking for months.
E.g. Delphi Digital podcast helped me to position myself in aero (expansion in EVM ecosystem) & grass (data for ai agents and better revenue story) about 2 months ago.
Allocated 80% in BTC and alts, keeping 20% dry powder for dips (mainly short term holder cost basis). Feeling positive for the next 12-18 months.
Samet Ulucay retweeted
I've seen folks adjusting goalposts, claiming the 4yr cycle still works because 3 months over 4yrs is a small delta.
Missing prior tops by a quarter missed a median of 80% of the cycle upside.
Missing prior lows by a quarter missed a median of +50% moves off the low.
Let it go
Value Zone
As you know, Bitcoin risk metric takes into account short term holder cost basis, MVRV, short and long term SOPR and mayer multiple.
Currently it’s at ~3 and seems like it will stay low for a couple months (considering macro & technical as well).
▪️ Bitcoin risk metric: 3/100.
▪️ Ethereum risk metric: 23/100.
▪️ Solana risk metric: 12/100.
In this week's newsletter, you will find bear market levels for Bitcoin & curation of ideas from big accounts.
Please share your ideas (what you want to see in the newsletter). I'm trying to create a template and I will consider your suggestions.
sametulucay.substack.com/p/v…
Navigating the Market
As you know, this metric takes into account short term holder cost basis, MVRV, short and long term SOPR and mayer multiple.
Currently it’s at ~10 and seems like it will stay low for a couple months (considering macro & technical as well).
▪️ Bitcoin risk metric: 10/100.
▪️ Ethereum risk metric: 24/100.
▪️ Solana risk metric: 16/100.
I started a Substack newsletter and added my thoughts with more details, please take a look and subscribe.
I will continue writing weekly content on X, but more detailed version of my content (more graphs and tables) will be on Substack because it is easier & better.
In this week's newsletter, you will find bear market levels for Bitcoin & curation of ideas from big accounts & potential new FED chair's perspective on markets.
Please share your ideas (what you want to see in the newsletter). I'm trying to create a template and I will consider your suggestions.
sametulutea.substack.com/p/n…
It's been 2 months since I last shared my thoughts here. In this post, you’ll find what I’ve been up to during that time and my plans for what comes next.
Finance
Most of people follow me for my thoughts on the market, that's why I start with it:
▪️ Bitcoin risk metric: 15/100
▪️ Ethereum risk metric: 28/100
▪️ Solana risk metric: 22/100
Technical & onchain & macro analyses show that it will be a difficult year for Bitcoin & crypto (even though risk metrics are low, they can stay low for a couple of months). For those who are interested: my crypto portfolio 44% USD - 36% BTC - 18% ETH - 2% SOL.
Meanwhile, metals are on a big uptrend. I can say a few things about it:
🖊️ I wish I had listened Lyn Alden more carefully when she mentioned in a podcast in 2022/2023 that 2020s will be multipolar world (US & China & Russia & EU) and metals will be in a big uptrend.
🖊️ Most of big influencers (Mostly I refer to Ben Cowen & Bob Loukas in my content) are right about 6/10 for their short to mid-term analyses. However, I noticed that even they amplify their rights 10 times and they admit their wrongs once and move on.
▪️ 6 rights becomes 60.
▪️ 4 wrongs stays at 4.
▪️ Now they are right about 60/64 (>90%).
🖊️ Everybody feels that they are right more than 90% but it's not correct (I know that but I will not spend time to prove my point).
🖊️ That's why I felt the need to focus on my own analysis & sources of income & work & education & health & family.
Sources of Income
I focus on my savings (mainly salary & yield from my investments).
✏️ I try to minimize my expenses, and I use DeFi for ~10% yield for my stablecoins. Sometimes I get airdrops here and there (last one was Lighter), and I use it for compounding or for my expenses.
✏️ My intention is to be able to buy as much BTC & ETH & SOL as I can when I feel like the bottom is close. If I feel there is a trend I can trade it, but I don't have time for that nowadays.
✏️ My future plans are to create more sources of income (a digital product, social media, co-ops, etc.) but product should be good that people would buy/subscribe.
Education
I feel like I need to understand the start-ups and big companies (how they run their businesses, how they manage the team/resources), so I decided to go for an MBA program.
🖌️ Actually I'm halfway there, and I intend to finish the program in June. That was one of the reasons I could not find enough time to create content (due to lots of assignments & homework).
🖌️ Lectures like marketing & entrepreneurship helped me to understand how companies are managed, and how I can run a business when the time comes.
Health & Family
I'm 36 now, and I can't work 15 hours per day. I need find a new balance for my mind & body & soul.
🖊️ I listened to people like David Goggins or Alex Hormozi for many years to suffer, hustle, rush, grind whatever. If you don't, then you are "mediocre/lazy".
🖊️ This is just a marketing tool to make people feel anxious. I noticed that even though you can do that grinding for a while, it is not sustainable for the long run.
🖊️ Also, you have limited resources which means if you work 15 hours per day; you are not spending from your family & sleep & health. You will see the effects after becoming 50 or 60.
🖊️ Life is a marathon and everybody needs to find their own pace.
What's Next
My priority is my family & health & work & finance & education. That's why I plan to keep a low profile on social media until I feel the time is right.
I intend to write my thoughts about the market on a weekly basis (including risk metrics and my findings from different books, videos, podcasts).
Inner Thoughts #12
Bitcoin risk metric: 9/100
Ethereum risk metric: 29/100
Solana risk metric: 23/100
This is one of the lowest values in BTC risk metric's history.
STH cost basis risk at 0 (STH CB/BTC price: 0.82).
Mayer multiple risk at 0 (value: 0.77).
Very low risk for LTH SOPR & MVRV.
STH SOPR risk at 0 (look at 3D avg).
However, I commented quite similar when BTC was at $95k: "Risk metric is at extremely low levels ~18".
So, it can be costly to fight with the trend. I use risk metric and that's ok, I can stay patient if needed. I partially bought at $101k and $95k, and I'm underwater. I bought more at $85k.
Probably we are in a bear market, but I'd like to take advantage of oversold zones like these. I consider selling most of I bought around $95-105k if we see those prices.
There will be a mean reversion in a couple of weeks or months. 200D mov. avg. (now at $110k) historically is a good zone to sell, but if everyone wants to sell at the same level... That's why $95-105k seem good enough.
Everyone sold their BTC (ETFs & long term holders) and that's why BTC dominance did not increase recently. Also there is this privacy/quantum trend (Shift from BTC to ZEC)...
Long term holders sold a lot (seems like sell pressure has slowed down). Now, short term holders are capitulating. Look how fast STH cost basis dropped in the last 2-3 days.
My assumption is that BTC will recover better compared to other assets. Then eventually drops to find a bottom again. I guess we'll have enough time to buy and hold in 2026 for later profits.
Probably everyone is aligned by now that altcoins are only for short term trades. Maybe just a few coins if you know the team & their strategy...
In the bear markets, it's important to be patient & monitor the opportunities & generate cash flow (by working, saving, social media, etc.) & buy for the long term.
Inner Thoughts #11
Bitcoin risk metric: 18/100
Ethereum risk metric: 31/100
Solana risk metric: 24/100
Risk metric is at extremely low levels (it is calculated by MVRV, SOPR, mayer multiple, STH cost basis values).
Let's look at details today and try to understand if it's over for this cycle.
🖊️ Mayer Multiple (BTC / BTC 200D MA) is at 0.86 (2024 September & 2025 April levels). Historical average is 1.3.
🖊️ Bear market lows can reach 0.5-0.6 (with Luna & FTX crash in 2022) but BTC is more institutional now. Definitely it can go lower but 0.5-0.6 is a very extreme scenario.
✏️ Short term holder cost basis is at $111k and BTC/STH CB is at 0.86. Average is 1.06 (since early 2024).
✏️ It is possible that BTC price can go to true market mean ($82k) or even lower, but it's definitely better to stack sats at lower values rather than higher (if your time horizon is long enough).
🖌️ If this cycle is over, then bear market low can be around $70-75k (40-45% drop) due to institutional interest and even retail investors can buy at those prices who has long term vision.
🖌️ If BTC can recover from this heavy sell pressure, I think this price region is a value zone. That's why I bought some more BTC at $96k (previous one was at $101k).
cc for chart: @_Checkmatey_
✨ I don't want to complicate things for myself. If risk metric is low enough - then I partially buy, if it's high - then I partially sell. My time horizon is long enough to deal with the drawdowns.
✨ I still have ~32% USD, so I can use my cash if we see lower prices (I utilize most my USD in blue chip DeFi protocols to get some yield). Nothing is black or white, so no need to go all in or sell everything.
✨ Just wanted to share my perspective. If you're too emotional nowadays, please consider to step back and come up with a clear & easy plan.
✨ I didn't mention ETH & SOL details. We can consider the details after BTC makes the path clear for all crypto assets.
Inner Thoughts #10
Bitcoin risk metric: 25/100
Ethereum risk metric: 32/100
Solana risk metric: 28/100
✏️ If we're not in a bear market, then it should be the end phase of a big correction. I bought some BTC & ETH just to have skin in the game.
▪️ 200D moving average: $110.2k
▪️ Short term holder cost basis: $111.8k
▪️ 50W moving average: $103k
🔹 It will be great if this & next weekly close prices will be above $103k. I think lots of people react according to Bob's & Ben's ideas (Loukas & Cowen).
🔹 If Ben (and his followers) sell after 2 weekly closes below 50W mov. avg. & Bob (and his followers) sell due to failed weekly cycle (if no clear separation back higher), then lots of new people will join the bear side.
How risk metrics are calculated?
✨ I use long-term and short-term SOPR & MVRV & STH cost basis & mayer multiple for BTC risk metric.
✨ BTC.D & ETH/BTC & 200D mov. avg. & (TOTAL3-USD)/BTC for ETH risk metric. SOL/BTC & 200D mov. avg. for SOL risk metric.
Not everything is negative
✏️ There are minor trends such as privacy, intents, perps, prediction markets, Bittensor halving, etc. Mercenaries will find their way to make money in all conditions.
🖊️ DXY might have a swing failure pattern as @TomasOnMarkets mentioned in his last article (hopefully DXY will not break above 101).
🖌️ TOTAL & TOTAL2 & TOTAL3 & ETH are all at 50W moving average support. Short term onchain metrics such as STH MVRV, STH SOPR are close to negative 1 standard deviation zone.
✨ This structure hopefully brings (at least) a relief rally. Then we should check the macro news & market structure & global liquidity & etc. again.
AI & DeFi
🖊️ I bought some Pendle YTs for @almanak and @solsticefi to rank up in the points ladder. If market allows and these projects TGE in the right time (hopefully December), momentum can bring good valuations.
✏️ I also use 10+ projects as I mentioned in my recent article. Even though recent DeFi exploits hurt the investor confidence, I believe good diversification & safe plays will bring good passive yields.
InfoFi & Opportunities
🖌️ I can't keep up with all the content flow. That's why I prefer to stick to a few projects that I believe. If I can find some time, I want to focus on more projects. Also, I'm preparing a list to stay up to date about all the yield opportunities.
Side Notes
🖊️ My crypto portfolio is ~36% BTC ~36% USD ~22% ETH ~6% mostly HYPE and SOL (this section is just to answer potential questions). Most of my USD & alts are utilized in DeFi.
✏️ I'm optimistic (as seen from my recent actions). Risk metrics are too low & encouraging. I can buy a little bit more if we see prices around $97k. However, all scenarios should be considered to stay in the game.
🖌️ BTC price / BTC short term holder cost basis was at 0.82 (BTC was ~$76k) back in 2025 April. Now it is 0.91 and close to lows. 0.82 value might be reached if BTC drops to $92k.
🔹 BTC price / BTC 200D mov. avg. was at 0.88 back in 2025 April. Now it is 0.92 and close to lows. 0.88 value might be reached if BTC drops to $97k.
🔸 If we are in early bear market then true mean value might be considered (around $82k). I would use most of my stables if we see these prices again.
Pyrrhic Victory
This is a win that comes at such a high cost that it is almost as bad as a defeat. The term originates from King Pyrrhus of Epirus, whose army suffered such heavy casualties in defeating the Romans.
▪️ You get an airdrop, then it falls 90%.
▪️ You use DeFi, then read about hacks.
▪️ You trade, then big players manipulate.
▪️ You hold, then you're a prey for macro news.
🖊️ Look how boring this market has become since 2022; not reaching bottoms & tops anymore, following the fair value. Gold traders have more adrenaline...
✏️ One of the easiest ways to navigate is just using whichever strategy works for you. You just need to stick to it, not changing it every week.
🖌️ Considering how late we're in this cycle, I don't buy BTC & ETH & alts anymore even though risk metric <40 (setup looks like April 2025). Just waiting >60 to take profits.
I feel like it's necessary to list bearish & bullish parameters to find a way. cc: @DefiIgnas
🖊️ This list makes me hold on to my portfolio 60% in BTC & ETH & SOL & HYPE and 40% in stables to find yields & airdrops here and there.
✏️ My wins in this cycle: my network, portfolio up okay, learnt a lot about DeFi & AI, got better at writing.
🖌️ My losses in this cycle: time & effort (could be used differently) and round tripping AI agent trend gains.
✨ I hope our fight with this market will not turn into a pyrrhic victory in the end. Considering the low risk metric values, I'm rooting for a positive November & December (still).
