Saturnalia

You can give more of your AI and memory stocks and fuck off

Bought more of QQQ, S&P500 and GOOGL You can sell more of AI stocks and go fuck off

Bullish for crypto in the long run Get these grifters out nitter.gq/BitcoinIntelX/status/2…

Ansem went from being one of the most vocal loud voices asking pump.fun to do an airdrop to aping 100k shitters that cannot move beyond 1M MC Comical

Looking to build out products that help solve real problems and builds usecases I have shipped out a lot of dapps and have been recently working on trenchhot.app If you have an idea or a working group / committee for building hmu Would love to join

My pronouns are kill/me its/over

Chad Don't get FOGOed boys nitter.gq/WSJmarkets/status/2117…

Watch everyone flip from extremely bearish to extremely bullish in about a few days Absolutely mental state of affairs

Times like these where no asset class makes sense is why you should always have some allocation in real estate No matter if the world is going for shit, inflation is hitting the roof and you're jobless but if you have an apartment you only have to fend for food Few

Its just so silent everywhere

"i'll just check the chart once" – me, 4 hours ago

The Binance hack didn’t stay on CT. People who have never bought crypto know about it now and its trending on a lot of traditional media channels. And every one of them trusts crypto a little less than they did last week. Hacks used to be rare events. Now there’s one almost every week. When something happens that often, the market stops treating it as news and starts treating it as a cost. So every token now carries a hack discount. Nobody knows who’s next, and that means a lot more volatility from here. It also flips what gets rewarded. Protocols that can prove they’re safe, the ones that end up quantum / AI audited, will probably trade at a premium to everything else. Memes and speed got paid last cycle. Security might be the next narrative.

A really good listen, and a few things stuck with me. Almost everyone who has made it here had a few people willing to bet on them. In my case, it was a bunch of people who invited me into their private groups and helped me network, when otherwise I’d have just been an outsider. The other thing about trading is that you have to stay curious. When Tintin asked Captain Haddock how his thirst for knowledge was, he replied, “Unquenchable.” Being proactive and spotting Boogle, Solana and Hype early is what made him stand out. I agree hindsight is 20/20, but we just had a new RH run. If you’re curious enough to explore new ideas and new chains, you’ll outperform others. Papertrade.xyz is another example: if you researched it well and built a strategy around it, you made money. Close yourself off to anything new and you’ll never generate alpha. So while web3 and crypto keep maturing, I still believe a lot of opportunities will come for the underdog to get ahead. My hope and prayer is that the people around me, myself included, are able to seize them. Godspeed. 🫡 nitter.gq/jords/status/211543658…

Really really good observation and proved true again Insane nitter.gq/thedefivillain/status/…

BTC was 82k last week and the timeline was adding. It's under 80k this week and the same timeline is cutting at a loss. That's a 3% move. I want to talk about why it does this to people every single time, because I think almost everyone has the wrong model of what FOMO is. Most people think FOMO is a top-of-market thing. Price runs, you feel like you're missing it, you buy. That's half of it. The other half is the same emotion pointed the other way, and nobody calls it FOMO because it doesn't feel like greed. It feels like prudence. Price drops, everyone around you is getting out, and the fear isn't that you'll miss the gains. It's that you'll miss the exit. You'll be the one still holding when it's actually over. So you sell. Same reflex, same trigger, opposite direction. That's the thing to understand. FOMO was never about price. It's about the crowd. You don't buy at 82k because 82k is a good price, you buy because everyone is buying and being outside that feels unbearable. You don't sell at 79k because 79k is a bad price, you sell because everyone is selling and being the last one in feels unbearable. In both cases the thing you're responding to is other people, and the price is just the excuse. Which is why the best traders I know barely look at the timeline when they're deciding something. Not because the timeline is wrong, it often isn't, but because the timeline is the input that triggers the reflex, and the reflex has no idea what the asset is worth. Here's what makes it so hard to catch in yourself. On the way up, FOMO doesn't feel like fear, it feels like conviction. You've been right for a week, the green confirms it, adding feels like intelligence. On the way down, it doesn't feel like fear either, it feels like discipline. You're cutting losses, managing risk, being the adult. Both times you're doing the exact same thing, following the crowd into the trade at the moment it's most expensive to follow them, and both times your brain hands you a flattering word for it. I've done this more times than I'd like to admit and I had a good reason every single time. The tell is simple once you know to look for it. If the price moves 3% and your view of the asset moves 100%, you didn't have a view. You had a position and a feed. And the fastest way to check is to ask what changed in the thing, not the chart. This week nothing changed in BTC. The supply schedule is the same. The ETFs are the same. Adoption is the same. What changed is that the people you follow went from posting rockets to posting 75k targets, and that was enough to flip a week's worth of "I'm holding this through anything" into a market order.

Everyone on CT thinks they're investing when in reality they're speculating. Actually, all of us are speculating here instead of investing, and I include myself in that, and the only reason it's worth saying out loud is that the difference changes how you behave with money, and most people have never once stopped to check which one they're doing. Investing means you know what the thing is. You could explain it with the chart closed. You've got some idea what it's worth, not a target, an actual sense of what you'd be willing to pay for it if nobody else was watching, and you've thought about what happens if you're wrong. Speculating means you're buying because it's moving, or because someone posted it, or because the narrative is hot this month, and you're hoping the next person pays more. There's nothing wrong with that second thing. It's how most of the money in this market has ever been made. But it is not investing, and the problem starts when you call it that. Because once you call it investing you start acting like an investor with a position you never actually analysed. You size it like it's real. You hold it through a 90% drawdown because you're "long term". You add on the way down because it's "cheap", which is a word that only means something if you know what it's worth, and you don't. You find the thesis after the move, you post it, and you believe you always had it. And then the people who actually did the work two years ago, when the thing was flat and nobody was talking about it, sell to you. That's the trade. It's the same trade every cycle. Only the tickers change. The honest version is simple and almost nobody does it. Before you buy, figure out which one you're doing. If you can explain the thing and have some idea of its value, fine, size it like an investment. If you can't, you're speculating, so size it like a bet, decide your exit before you enter, and don't marry it.

I think most people on this timeline are misreading what memecoins are evolving into because they are too fixated on the past. In 2024 a memecoin was a bet on a joke. You bought the frog because you thought other people would also find the frog funny. The joke was the asset. Your return was a function of how far the joke could travel. In 2026 a memecoin is a bet on a performance. You buy because someone is doing something live, right now, and the price is the applause meter. The joke doesn't need to travel. It needs to hold your attention for the next forty minutes. Those are completely different economic objects and they have completely different ceilings. A joke can travel to a billion people. That's how you got a dog at eighty billion dollars. A performance can only reach the people who are watching it while it's happening. That's why no stunt coin, no matter how insane, has broken out of the low hundreds of millions, and most of them die the moment the stream ends. The ceiling of a stunt coin isn't liquidity. It's concurrent viewers. You can't out-trade that. This is the actual reason the meme market feels capped. It isn't that the money left. It's that the dominant form of memecoin changed from something that could compound in culture to something that can only exist in real time, and real time doesn't compound. It just ends. If the coin is the box office, then the winners of this next phase are not traders. They're performers. The edge is no longer being first into a ticker. It's being the person other people will watch, and having a wallet attached to that. Every streamer who has ever been demonetised, every creator who's had a platform change its payout rules, now has a way to get paid directly by an audience that can't be revoked by anyone. So, where are memecoins going? They're splitting in two. The old ones, the handful that were jokes before they were tickers, are becoming brands and will trade like brands, slowly and boringly. Everything born on a launchpad since is becoming the ticket stub to a live show, and it will trade like one: worthless the next morning, and priced only by who was in the room. The question to ask about any new coin now isn't what's the narrative. It's who's on camera, and what happens when they log off.