Senior Political Scientist, @RANDCorporation. Co-Author, Everyone Loses https://xitter.cf/t.co/y8cHhiDh0w

Washington, DC
Joined June 2010
Samuel Charap retweeted
This would have limited effect on Ukraine's capabilities. Ukraine doesn't rely on weapons it gets thru PURL for deep strikes. PURL orders often arrive w/ long delays & what the U.S. is willing to sell through the program increasingly isn't what Ukraine needs (air defense).
SCOOP @FT: The Trump administration is threatening to stop the PURL procurement system that provides Ukraine with weapons in order to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, according to officials in Europe. The officials, who received calls from American officials on Saturday and Sunday or were briefed on them, said the US was lobbying European capitals and Kyiv in an attempt to end the attacks on Russian oil refineries. The White House declined to confirm or comment on the calls. w/ @HenryJFoy @ahauslohner ft.com/content/68fd8c4f-6f34…
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Samuel Charap retweeted
I've been horrified by the malicious attacks on @jekavanagh. One can disagree with her profoundly on the substance--and I do. But she is seeking policies that, in her mind, benefit US security. We need a public debate based on clear argument, not groundless accusations
So, I wrote a report, and it got a lot of feedback. I hoped the report would open a wider debate on posture and strategy in Asia. It did that, so in that spirit, I will respond to some of the common criticisms. They are grouped into four categories: security, economics, questions about American decline, and questions about my personal motivations/loyalties. 🧵 (1) Security. One area of disagreement is over what kind of U.S. military presence is required to maintain a balance of power in Asia that protects U.S. interests. In part, this depends on how those interests are defined. I define them narrowly. People can disagree with that, but the military requirements I specify are based on that narrow definition. Critics of my paper argue that the only way to maintain the necessary balance of power is to protect the status quo, preserve U.S. security guarantees and keep posture unchanged. I disagree. Countries like Japan and South Korea are strong and wealthy. There is no reason to believe that they cannot build the capabilities to deter aggression against them over the timeline outlined in my report, which is 5-10 years. They benefit from favorable geography and access to advanced technology. They can choose to spend the required resources and generate the necessary industrial production.
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Samuel Charap retweeted
Every successive peace deal on the table is worse than the one before, which was rejected
Ukrainian media report new Trump peace plan brought by Kushner & Witkoff: • complete ceasefire •withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas & part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast with possible deployment of UN contingent there •Ukraine's non-aligned status and renouncing NATO accession •referendum and elections •constitutional amendments •Kyiv renouncing the forcible return of territories that would come under Russian control •:imitations on the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces •agreements on language issues •and the signing of a full-fledged peace treaty by the new Ukrainian government, followed by ratification through a special procedure at the UN.
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Samuel Charap retweeted
“Leaders pursue negotiations not only when they are struggling to achieve their military objectives but also when they see a credible alternative to war.” Read Matt Waldman and @scharap on what it will take to broker peace in Ukraine: foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/h…
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Samuel Charap retweeted
.@scharap and @HiskiHaukkala warn that the relationship between NATO and Russia will remain “extremely volatile” no matter how the war in Ukraine ends—and consider what it will take to avoid a direct clash. foreignaffairs.com/russia/eu…
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Samuel Charap retweeted
In Ukraine, the United States “has taken on the role of mediator: it should draw on hard-won lessons about what helps talks succeed,” write Matt Waldman and @scharap. foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/h…
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Samuel Charap retweeted
“Leaders pursue negotiations not only when they are struggling to achieve their military objectives but also when they see a credible alternative to war.” Read Matt Waldman and @scharap on what it will take to broker peace in Ukraine: foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/h…
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With some practical suggestions for next steps...
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Samuel Charap retweeted
“Washington and its partners can do much more to strengthen personal ties between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators,” write Matt Waldman and @scharap. “To that end, mediators could carefully frame discussions and calibrate their pace.” foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/h…
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Samuel Charap retweeted
“To make real progress toward peace in Ukraine, Washington should apply lessons from decades of international mediation experience,” write Matt Waldman and @scharap. foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/h…
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New piece out today @ForeignAffairs with Matt Waldman, distilling his expertise on mediation into lessons for Russia-Ukraine talks: foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/h…
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Excellent discussion with @MySoldatenko and Eric Ciaramella on Ukraine-Russia negotiations: where they stand today and where they might go.
On Lawfare Daily, @MySoldatenko sat down with Eric Ciaramella and @scharap to take stock of the U.S.-led negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the improvements in Ukraine's position, and territorial questions, and security commitments to Ukraine.
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Samuel Charap retweeted
Very much looking forward to this discussion with @scharap of the @RANDCorporation on the origins of the war in Ukraine, focusing on the intersecting strategic positions of Russia, Ukraine and the United States. June 23rd at 11 AM. Details below. kennaninstitute.org/events/s…
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