I watch markets, create content about them, and build top trading & investing tech with @merchantseven
NYC 🏃♂️SF
Joined January 2010
- Tweets36.5K
- Following1.2K
- Followers17.9K
- Likes75.1K
Stef retweeted
you can just raise tens of millions of dollars and
>build factories
>write code
>supply america's industrial base
with your absolute boys
Everybody is a SaaS engineer thanks to the emergence of the leading AI platforms
That means everyone builds their own apps, front ends, and services for all their business needs
That means only three things matter:
1. The small businesses that build incredible custom solutions for their unique offerings
2. The AI platforms that make it possible
3. The hardware and hardware services that empower the entire stack from GPUs to memory, networking, storage, and more
Everything else has been commoditized 🫡
Reading this is the super bowl for traders
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec
Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
Stef retweeted
Anthropic S-1:
--over 11,900 customers pay $100K+ a year, up from about 950 a year earlier.
--over $130B cash. (likely over $200B post IPO)
SpaceX the new front runner for all things compute
SpaceX closes $40 billion debt deal for AI chips, Elon Musk says cnbc.com/2026/10/26/spacex-c…
Stef retweeted
elon popping the AI bubble after front running the Anthropic and OpenAI IPO is like watching an episode of billions and succession lol
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Stef retweeted
Neoclouds that are able to lock in forward compute prices in derivatives markets will be able to get financing as long as they have a credible track record of execution.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
It’s fascinating to think the sheer cost of buying X/Twitter for $40b wasn’t actually the net income it would provide, but the narratives it would drive for $SPCX potentially worth multiples more than the purchase price
Elon has every incentive to talk shit and worsen access to capital for his primary competitors (neoclouds) while pumping his own roadmap to improve his purchase power when TSLA is merged into SPCX.
Luckily none of this works if he’s wrong about GPU rental rates and given the rock-bottom rate assumptions and multiples embedded in public neocloud names I’m not worried despite his incentive to spread FUD.
Long compute 🫡
Stef retweeted
The iPhone Duo has a chance to bring back the 2010s-era non-functional creativity that made Apple great.
▶️🔊
Stef retweeted
This might be the greatest Who he play for of all time lmao
a must watch!
please don't retire Chuck!
This is actually brilliant from a perspective of keeping shares really tightly locked
This quoted post is unavailable.
