Imagine what would happen if they kept stats on their own predictions.
The effort to build up opinion polling as a prestigious, reliable instrument of social knowledge went on throughout my youth. On the news, you would see a poll and it would be called a "scientific" poll or the product of "scientific polling." That word scientific was abused all over the place for a lot of things in mid-century America, but seldom so often as with polling. Later, of course, we were given to understand that polling was also an art form (the Nate Silver years), not necessarily accurate, certainly not infallible, and infused throughout with subjectivity – but it was all we had nonetheless if we were to understand our neighbors' thoughts and feelings and opinions.
That metaphor has all but broken down now. We've seen far too many examples of the pollsters not only getting things wrong, but getting things wrong in the same way, for the same purposes, and in service to the same interests.
Still, polling is an industry, and like all industries, it has a certain inertia around it. It wants to live. It wants to soak up resources. Many of those resources would be better spent on astrology, I think, but the pollsters carry on -- aggressively. And they still insist that their mission is understanding reality, not getting things done for their clients.
The truth is that there may be no sky-god public; it's a mythical entity that the priestly pollsters founded their industry on examining and guiding and propitiating. We all used to believe it existed, this mythical creature whose alleged "mind" Gallup could read and predict using statistical tools, but it's gone the way of Santa for a lot of us. Or that dubious substance once called "the ether."
The public mind was a god the pollsters had to invent if they were to be its priestly interpreters. But I look around and I don't see it. I see institutions, I see pools of money, I see individuals, I see hopes and dreams, and I see 1000s of different information operations aimed at all kinds of subsets of this proverbial aggregate of humanity. I do not see some collective social overbrain that has thoughts and beliefs and intentions, let alone ones that can be usefully "probed."
Quoth:
really? what a narrow view! Anderson did in fact write sympathetically & convincingly about girls & women; even Hemingway has a story from an adolescent girl's perspective, "Up in Michigan," that is a knockout; not to mention D.H. Lawrence, Scott Fitzgerald, Thomas Hardy & (not least) Shakespeare.
if men can't write about women, women presumably can't write about men.
educated people can't write about lesser-educated people, Black writers can't write about brown people, people from Maine can't write about people from Vermont, no one can write about anyone except the sickly face in the mirror.
John Twain retweeted
Filmmaking can never be ethical. You are stealing light and sound and putting it inside a little box. That is not nice
Could it be that people actually want to watch tv when they watch tv?
For the streamers, the implications of such counter-revolutionary logic are humbling.
This seems credible.
If you’re surprised you haven’t been paying attention. If you think this is ok, you have some serious explaining to do.
Meta’s cuddly spy called Muse has exposed private conversations by making links to shared chats publicly searchable. Predictable.
When someone shared a conversation, Meta created a web link with the title of that conversation. Those links ended up in publicly accessible records where strangers could find them.
Security firm Claroc discovered more than 6,800 shared conversations with a single search. Some contained sensitive personal and business information, including a loan application, a bank fraud alert and confidential company documents.
Anyone who found these links could open the conversations without a password or permission from the person who shared them.
Meta says it has suspended the sharing feature, but records of the exposed links remain publicly accessible.
💡 Meta should shut down this service. It’s riddled with security vulnerabilities and poses serious risks to everyone’s privacy, including people who don’t use it.
It doesn’t matter if you don’t use any of Meta’s products. If someone gives Muse access to their emails, messages or other private accounts, highly sensitive information about you could end up in Meta’s hands without your knowledge or consent.
If someone shares conversations you’ve had with them, or talks about you in messages Muse can access, Meta will learn who you know, what you’ve said, what you’re thinking, your emotional state and your personal vulnerabilities.
That kind of information is being used to build detailed profiles and social graphs about people who’ve never used Muse or agreed to share anything with Meta. You’d have no way of knowing what information had been collected about you or how it was being used.
And because Meta is a US company, information it holds is subject to demands from US authorities.
This is an extraordinary invasion of privacy, including the privacy of people who’ve never used the service.
Context.
A very interesting long read in @FT
Could China be going the way of Japan - which once looked as if it was going to overtake the US, but then hit decades of decline?
China is not there yet, even after the bursting of the property bubble - it is still growing at 3-4% and it's export engine is powering along, for now. But the @FT shows that there are some clear signs of concern for Chinese policy makers.
John Twain retweeted
Serve Robotics, which runs most of LA’s sidewalk delivery robots, lost $101.4 million in 2025,
($371,286 annual net loss for every robot it had out making deliveries.)
The first advantage its investor deck lists for the robots is “No driver wages.”
This is a slide from that presentation
John Twain retweeted
I was wrong. Netflix did make a reference to video games today: It said a trailer for someone else's game was a hit.
Other than that, nothing to say about games or podcasts - two categories it used to tell investors were promising.
businessinsider.com/netflix-…
John Twain retweeted
Brilliantly explains the awful process by which social media tricks the worried well into believing they're mentally ill.
Should be read by everyone tempted to self diagnose psych disorders.
Replying to @AllenFrancesMD
Here’s how TikTok convinces people they have mental illness without any prompting from the user:
psych-partners.com/how-dr-ti…
Send a rat 🐀 to catch a rat. 🐀
John Twain retweeted
Meta’s Muse is blocked at Schwab. Its CEO asks who’s liable if an agent moves money. When an AI agent makes a mistake, causes financial harm, exposes private information or breaks the law, who's responsible?
The answer isn't complicated. AI agents aren't legal persons. They're software created, configured, authorised and deployed by people and companies.
US law has recognised autonomous software since 2000. The federal E-SIGN Act explicitly defines an "electronic agent" as software capable of acting without human approval at the time of each action. The law recognises transactions conducted through automated systems.
If a company gives an AI agent access to confidential information, financial accounts or computer systems, that company remains responsible for the decisions it made about access, permissions, security controls and supervision. Whether it must compensate someone depends on the applicable law, contracts and circumstances.
If an agent transfers money without authorisation, accesses confidential records or attacks another company's infrastructure, investigators should examine who configured it, what instructions it received, what permissions it had, who authorised those permissions and what its activity logs show.
Schwab can't blame an agent for acting independently, any more than they can blame an Excel macro.
The difference between an AI agent making a mistake and a company being legally liable for that mistake is important. But neither changes who's responsible for deploying the software.
Even Meta’s Muse gets blocked at Schwab. Its CEO asks who’s liable if an agent moves money. JPMorgan is drawing the same line. thenextweb.com/news/schwab-b…
John Twain retweeted
Chris Rock just nailed one of the biggest problems with wokeness.
Helping people who feel marginalized is good. He says so himself. The trouble starts when a good cause becomes an institution.
The first few witches were real. Then you open a witch office. Now there are salaries, budgets and pensions to justify, and the office needs a steady supply of witches to keep existing.
That’s the trap. Once a cause becomes a career, solving the problem means losing your job. So the problem never gets solved. It just keeps getting redefined.
A system built to find wrongdoing will keep finding it, whether it’s there or not.
This thread and gem from business school professor @davidclowery
"Instead of just declaring you don't give as fuck, maybe you should figure out how to give a fuck?"






























