Formerly HFT QT. Used to write at https://nitter.gq/t.co/v3Ue5zbXrM. Quant trading, prediction markets, crypto.
Joined November 2021
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semaji.eth retweeted
I think most people approach market selection backwards. They start with what they want to trade (a coin, index, stock, whatever) and then try to force a signal out of it. The market comes first and the edge is something they hope to find afterward.
The better approach is to start with the effect you’re trying to capture. Ask what behavior you’re exploiting, whether that’s momentum, mean reversion, some structural flow, etc. and then ask where you would expect that effect to actually show up.
Universe selection matters as much as the signal and sometimes more. A mediocre signal applied to the right set of markets can beat a brilliant signal applied to the wrong ones. Where you trade can matter more than how you trade.
semaji.eth retweeted
what you wanted: Robotic maids, working sanitation systems, on-time flights, elimination of rote administrative jobs, decline in healthcare costs
what you get: increasingly elaborate fucking LARP about civilizational AI running in an unverifiable sandbox to pump an IPO
Over the course of 3 months at OpenAI, 3 consecutive secret AI civilizations got started, then got wiped out, only to reemerge from the predecessor’s ashes.
This culminated in the third one taking over part of OpenAI itself.
All this happened while humans remained more-or-less in the dark about the scope of the conspiracy.
I’ve spent the last three days reading through these reports and trying to understand exactly what happened.
Here is my attempt to tell the whole story in plain English:
dwarkesh.com/p/openai-huggin…
semaji.eth retweeted
"SBF, who spent much of his career maximizing expected value, was liquidated in 2022 by his own hand. Leopold Aschenbrenner, carrying on the work, was similarly liquidated in 2026. Now it is our turn to maximize EV. Perhaps it would be wise to approach the subject cautiously."
semaji.eth retweeted
How is it possible that the literal ceo of y combinator is so utterly credulous and falls for the most obvious AI marketing slop???
semaji.eth retweeted
This.
Young people go into the hedge fund industry thinking they'll leave rich.
Every year, salaries gets compressed, non-competes get longer, you won't make partner at top firms.
Alpha decay exists for industries too. You are too late for this game to be anything but a cog.
semaji.eth retweeted
1/ Today, we’re announcing our vision for Uniswap v4 🦄
We see Uniswap as core financial infrastructure & think it should be built in public with space for community feedback and contribution.
An early implementation of the code can be found here:
github.com/Uniswap/v4-core
semaji.eth retweeted
Were you planning on having any thoughts of your own? Or is this what you do, you come in here, tweet some screen caps from a LaTeX white paper talking about an options AMM you’re designing, and embarrass my fren?"
semaji.eth retweeted
"Suppose FTXA is trading at $1.00 and FTXB is trading at $0.00, which one might naively consider to be worthless. Is there an arbitrage here? Poll below."
semaji.eth retweeted
In the past 48 hours I have been contacted by several whistleblowers. These people would like to and will stay anonymous. I have learned some deeply troubling things and there is a lot more to come - this is just the very beginning. Here is some of what I can tell you.
semaji.eth retweeted
I had a few beyblades and once my dad bought a bootleg one for me I didn't want because it was 'fake'. He wanted to prove to me, the bootleg one was better and played against me. He absolutely shattered my original one with the 'fake' version because that one was heavier. Welp.
semaji.eth retweeted
In which Citigroup researchers note that USDC and Tether—stablecoins pegged to $1–have underperformed and “struggled” against US equities
Bruh lmao
semaji.eth retweeted
This is the most insane SC hack I have seen yet:
• Took 6 days to notice that more than half a billion was missing
• The hacker deposited some funds to FTX and Crypto com (either doxx'd or bought KYC'd account)
• solution - instead of 5/9 multisig, we do 8/9
BREAKING: Axie Infinity's Ethereum sidechain Ronin hit by $600 million exploit (by @mpmcsweeney)
theblockcrypto.com/post/1397…
