Editor at Large, Barron's. Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted. West coast jazz. East coast rap.

New York, USA
Joined December 2008
andy serwer retweeted
tweet of the day
Bonds waiting for “the most important CPI print”
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I was 26 years old when Peter Lynch handed me this. April 28, 1983. I was the auto and retail analyst at Fidelity. Peter was in his prime, on his way to building the greatest mutual fund track record in history: 29.2% annual returns for 13 YEARS STRAIGHT, growing Magellan from $18 million to $14 billion. The Babe Ruth of investing. I'm looking at the principles he had typed up on a single sheet of paper that I've kept in my files for 42 years and I believe now is the perfect time to revisit them again. Let me walk you through a few: Rule 1B: "You need an edge to make money. Do not rely on a combination of hope and good luck." Today's retail investor has no edge. He has Reddit, Robinhood, zero-DTE options and a TikTok algorithm pushing him into whatever stock just ripped 200% the day before. That's hope and good luck wearing a fancy costume. Rule 1E: "Purchase stocks like one would purchase a business." Tesla trades at over 360 times earnings on a business deteriorating in real time, Oracle has $206 billion in liabilities against $39 billion in equity, MicroStrategy is a leveraged Bitcoin holding company priced like a software firm, and don't even get me started on SpaceX, that piece of garbage you'll be able to trade tomorrow... Nobody in their right mind would buy these as actual businesses. They buy them as stories, narratives, and lottery tickets. Peter would have called it the same way I do - these are not investments. They are speculations. GAMBLING. Rule 1G: "Study the balance sheet and cash flow statement." The hyperscalers spent over $380 billion on AI capex in 2025. Goldman says the measurable productivity payoff does not arrive until 2027 at the earliest. Oracle just reported NEGATIVE $23.7 billion in free cash flow for fiscal 2026 while borrowing at a pace that would make a leveraged buyout firm nervous. The cash flow statements are screaming but nobody is reading them. Rule 1I: "Avoid the long shot." This one cuts the deepest. The entire market has become a long shot. OpenAI is projected to post roughly $74 billion in operating losses in 2028 ALONE while priced for transformation tomorrow. Bitcoin treasury companies are multiplying off thin air. The retail investor of 2026 is making one long-shot bet after another and calling it a portfolio. Rule 3A: "When the fundamentals change, sell your mistakes." Tesla's fundamentals have changed. California registrations are down 24% year over year and inventory days went from 10 to 27. Musk himself admitted on the last earnings call that Hardware 3 cannot achieve unsupervised FSD, breaking a promise made to 4 million customers. The fundamentals have screamed change. But the stock is still at $385. The mistakes are not being sold. They are literally being doubled down on with leverage. Rule 3I: "A 30-50% profit in 12 months is great. Mediocre in three years." Today's retail crowd expects 30-50% in a WEEK. Then they wonder why they get wiped out the second the hype stops. And my favorite - Rule 3J: "Develop your own style and stick to it." That is the entire game right there. I developed mine sitting across the hall from Peter Lynch in 1983, watching him work, reading his notes, getting my own research handed back to me covered in his pencil marks. Then in 1984, my first full year managing money, I ran the #1 mutual fund in America. The Fidelity Overseas Fund was top 2 for the next six years running. I did not get there by chasing narratives. I got there by following the sheet of paper you are looking at right now. 42 years later, this single page contains more wisdom than every Fintwit thread, CNBC segment, and Wall Street price target combined. Peter retired in 1990 with the greatest mutual fund record in history. Then he sat down and wrote books explaining exactly how he did it. Only a few "investors" these days read them. And almost nobody is reading the balance sheets, the cash flow statements, or studying actual businesses today either. They are chasing AI, crypto, and whatever pumped yesterday. The wisdom on this page is timeless and it's more important than ever.
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andy serwer retweeted
Idk who she is but I know Paul Tudor Jones when I see him!
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andy serwer retweeted
There have been many amazing posts about the incredible sacrifice of so many on D-Day. Andy Rooney’s 5 minute’s says so much in his own, inimitable way. Profound and worth your time.
D-Day was one of the most monumental days in the history of mankind. Don’t take my word for it, watch this video from Andy Rooney, who saw it with his own eyes. Share it with everyone you know, especially your kids.
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andy serwer retweeted
Incredible headline @serwer @barrons
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andy serwer retweeted
tweet of the day
“If you spend 14 minutes a year on economics, you just wasted 12 minutes.” — Peter Lynch
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andy serwer retweeted
‘Now, economics is lucky to be in the back seat. Decisions are being made according to national security, geopolitics, and domestic politics. What investors have to realize is that economic outcomes will have less to do with economic logic and commercial logic.’ read of the @Ravens weekend. barrons.com/articles/bull-… @serwer @elerianm
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Per these @CNBC charts and further to the earlier post: Gold is trading above $3,900, poised to set yet another record high; and Bitcoin is within 1% of its all time high. #economy #markets #gold #crypto #bitcoin #investing #investors
Per this CNBC reporting, the strategy favoring gold and Bitcoin now has a name: JP Morgan analysts are calling it "the debasement trade." #economy #gold #bitcoin @jpmorgan @CNBC
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𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁'𝘀 𝙍𝙖𝙨𝙥𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙣 𝙍𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 In this weekend's @barronsonline, in a humorous but apt observation @serwer compared the current stock market to Rasputin, the Russian mystic who exercised significant influence on the imperial family of Nicholas II, the last Emperor of Russia. In 1914 Rasputin was stabbed but survived. Two years later, he was fed cakes poisoned with cyanide but survived, then given Madeira wine poisoned with cyanide but survived, then shot but survived, and finally shot again and thrown into a river - at which point he died. What's giving this bull market its Rasputin-like resilience as it charges higher despite numerous formidable headwinds, including historically high valuations? What happened to reversion to the mean - has financial gravity been repealed? Some argue that passive investing - which now accounts for 53.4% of all mutual funds and exchange-traded funds - tends to make the market continually rise. Before he passed, Jack Bogle - the Patron Saint of Passive Investing - said that “If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe….The markets would fail.” 𝗪𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟱𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗘𝗧𝗙𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀, 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆'𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸? 𝗢𝗿 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗰: 𝗔𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 (𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗿 𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀) 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝘂𝗽 - 𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵 - 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗳𝘁? Here's the link to Serwer's very interesting article: barrons.com/articles/stock-m… #investing #stocks #bonds #ETFs #StockMarkets #stockmarketcrash #interestrates
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One of the coolest humans ever, and one of the last of the great bluesmen. I got play with Buddy a couple of times, and it was a treat. #BuddyGuy
Nothing cooler than an 89-year-old Buddy Guy drinking cognac with one hand and playing "Sunshine of Your Love" with the other
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"I'm a big believer in US technology for the world. I think we have a great innovation engine in this country. And I think of the great innovative companies, I look at @Qualcomm as probably one of one in America, in our ability to provide technology to all the world." @cristianoamon. Good conversation with @serwer @barronsonline, listen in full ! barrons.com/podcasts/at-barr…
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andy serwer retweeted
Thrilled to share that I'll be contributing to @CNBC on a regular basis, helping with their stellar coverage & analysis on tech (but of course!) from the Bay Area.
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Jeff Bezos waiting on Trump to give Blue Origin Elon’s SpaceX subsidies.
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Let’s bring this franchise back to DC
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andy serwer retweeted
The White Potus is the funniest thing Saturday Night Live has done in years. #SNL
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The market roller coaster does not surprise me. Indeed, it is to be widely expected. This does surprise me. A recession call -- on or off -- should not be this volatile or this dependent on a single policy issue, even if it's tariffs. #economy #markets
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