AI has an insane rate of progress when we observe what it does for jobs that take place on screens. Progress is slower for jobs in the world of atoms. Since the intellectual class spend all their time on screens, it's easy to think "AI will do all the jobs!" We are like 15th century farmers thinking about mechanization. If you mechanized agriculture, what other jobs could there even be? Perhaps employment in the on-screen sector will shrink to a small percentage. Of course stuff on screens affects things in the real world too. But the rate of progress is different. On screens (i.e. in simulation), the self-driving car problem has been solved for many years. IRL, we are still years and years away from replacement of human drivers. I think one reason for divergent predictions on how much AI will matter is that the "6% growth" AI experts are extrapolating from stuff on screens to stuff with atoms, while the "3% growth" economists are not.