Simon Mitchell

Anthropic just released the most IMPORTANT chart in the AI labor debate. This comes from the company that builds Claude using data from 2 million real conversations. Here’s what it shows. The blue area is every task AI could theoretically do right now. The red area is what people are actually using it for. The gap between them is enormous and that gap is your career runway. Computer programmers are already 75% covered. Customer service reps, data entry workers, financial analysts, they’re next. But here’s what no one is talking about. The mass layoffs haven’t really started. Unemployment for exposed workers hasn’t budged. So what’s actually happening? Companies are closing the front door, hiring for workers aged 22 to 25 in AI exposed jobs has dropped 14%. The most exposed workers aren’t factory workers, they’re college educated, higher earning. 49% of US jobs now have at least a quarter of their tasks inside AI’s reach. That’s up from 36% just one year ago. And the red area on that chart, the real world usage is still a fraction of what’s possible. Every month, it grows a bit. Anthropic built the scoreboard and most people haven’t looked at it yet.