Deep dives + asymmetric bets | AI infra | Small caps | Building $10k → $1M.
Sharing early-stage ideas
Joined May 2025
- Tweets1.3K
- Following480
- Followers2.1K
- Likes7K
$NAUT reported Q3 this morning.
The science keeps getting better. The tau work made it into Nature Methods, and the early AKT1 data hints the platform can go well beyond one protein.
The cash is the problem:
$192.8M six quarters ago, $114.3M now, and they are losing between $14 and 16M a quarter.
Voyager doesnt ship until mid 2027.
I like what they are building but I don't know if revenue shows up before they have to raise again.
Staying on my watchlist.
$NAUT
Elon is right, but this isnt really news.
We have known for months that securing GPUs is only one part of the AI buildout
Apollo shows lead times of up to 26 months for transformers and 23 for generators.
The risk is that companies end up with billions of dollars in GPUs they cant use because their data centers arent ready yet. $SPCX $NBIS $IREN $CRWV
People are focusing too much on humanoid robots but the earliest commercially measurable returns from Physical AI will emerge through industrial simulation, machine vision and factory optimization.
Siemens announced new AI applications developed with $NVDA at its electronics factor
The company reported:
- Up to 85% reduction in engineering effort for virtual production ramp up.
- Potential production planning cost savings of up to 20%
$CGNX $ROK $KGX.DE 6506.T
Great chart from Serenity showing the potential revenue ramp for $AAOI
Now lets see if management delivers on its Q3 guidance of $255-290M in revenue, up from $192M in Q2 (+42% QoQ)
Earnings on Nov.5
I'll let this revenue projection graph I made for $AAOI do the talking. Price at $70 I find genuinely riduclous if they deliver on their projections.
Rate hikes/macro trims a lot of forward valuations. But the selloff way overshot, which I'd argue is amplified by hedge fund risk/forced deleveraging before month end reporting.
Rather than something individually wrong with the company.
$CARR Carrier announced plans to invest more than $600 million over three years in a new manufacturing and engineering facility in Fort Worth, Texas.
The facility will exceed one million square feet.
It will expand manufacturing capacity for air cooled and water cooled commercial chillers.
Operations are expected to begin in 2027.
Carrier explicitly cited record backlog levels and strong demand across data centers and other industrial markets.
$VRT $MOD $NVT
About a month ago, I remember someone saying cybersecurity stocks could have significant upside yet
A lot of people replied that it was already priced in.
Im not so sure.
I think cybersecurity still has a very long runway ahead of it, especially as AI agents become more widely adopted.
We are still in the early innings
Sharing this article on X after the brutal selloff we have seen across the optical sector
Hope you enjoy it and that it helps you ignore the noise and get through this volatility.
Im still very bullish on the sector and remain invested.
I think 2027 is going to be a great year for optical companies. $LITE $AAOI $COHR $IQE $CRDO
What a week.
When I see my portfolio down 30% (or more) in such a short period of time, I'd be lying if I said I wasnt freaking out.
One thing that helps me is looking back at everything we've been through and remembering that, despite all of it, the SP500 and $QQQ are still near all time highs.
Hopefully this helps some of you as much as it helps me.
Just over the past year and a half, we have had:
- DeepSeek
- Trump Liberation Day tariffs
- The war with Iran
- China rare earth restrictions and tariff threats
- Anthropic and the software-mageddon
- And now the AI doomers
Every single time, there was a new reason to believe the market was about to fall apart.
Im coming back to this post in a year.
Lets see how well all those "AI bubble" predictions age.
Bringing back this post from July.
Right now, Im doing the same, absolutely nothing.
Is that a bad idea? Maybe.
I havent trimmed a single position, and I literally have zero cash left.
Lets see how this post ages
The past month has been tough. I have barely been following the market, but every time I check, it seems like there is another piece of bad news.
As always, I am doing absolutely NOTHING. $QQQ
$SHMD is seeing a significant acceleration in orders.
Q3 2026:
- Order intake: €67.8M (+121% QoQ)
- Backlog: €96.8M (+77% QoQ)
- Book to bill: 2.8x
- FY26 order guidance raised to +€150M
The company also announced a €25M equipment order to expand advanced HDI manufacturing capacity in Malaysia.
AI infrastructure spending is translating into equipment orders for increasingly complex PCB and interconnect manufacturing
Nicolas retweeted
A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN.
First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.
Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs.
That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right.
The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics.
There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway.
Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.