❌🌾As you may have seen, last week I bought wheat because I thought the market was in for a very aggressive downtrend, even though there was no strong catalyst. The market had already priced in a deal that never materialized. Today, however, it continued to move lower amid new rumors that Moscow might accept a deal in the Black Sea. With support levels broken, I cut my losses because my outlook was no longer valid. As I said, this is part of the game, which is why I kept my risk under control. I still think the market’s reaction is extreme, but I’m waiting for another opportunity to get in. Never think you’re smarter than the market. The house always wins.

Some predicting Brazilian wheat exports could hit another record this season at 9mmt…

Moody's France review comes out around 5 p.m. NY tonight. Four scenarios: •Affirm Aa3, negative outlook: Bullish EUR. The market is short euros, so this would squeeze into Monday. Low probability. EUR up 60 pips. •Cut to A1, stable outlook: The base case and mostly priced, given where spreads are. Could even trigger a small relief rally in OATs. Mildly bullish EUR, if anything. No impact on EURUSD. •Cut to A1 with a negative outlook, slightly more bearish than stable outlook. EUR down 30 pips. •Cut two notches to A2: Bearish EUR. Two notches would be a barnburner and would probably take EURUSD through 1.1150 support at the open and down to 1.1065 by European open Monday.

In Oslo and St. Petersburg, @JaredKushner and I met with Russian, Ukrainian, and European leaders to advance President Trump’s mission to end the war. In St. Petersburg, we met with President Putin to build on the progress made in Oslo with President Zelenskyy, discuss a peace framework, and thank President Putin for releasing American citizen Stephen Hubbard to return home to his family. These discussions were constructive, and will continue with trilateral talks between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine at the technical level. While there is still important work left to do, President Trump remains committed to seeing this war end and achieving a comprehensive, durable peace that will provide security and prosperity for generations to come.

Putin agreed to resume trilateral talks on a settlement in Ukraine. This is so far the main outcome of Steve Witkoff’s trip to St. Petersburg. The last meeting between Russian, Ukrainian and American representatives took place in February, and even then, Moscow viewed the process less as a genuine attempt to resolve the conflict than as a tactical exercise, albeit one accompanied by substantive technical discussions on the modalities of a ceasefire. The talks were supposed to resume following Witkoff and Kushner’s visits to Moscow and Kyiv in September. However, Zelensky’s decision to focus on pressuring Moscow into concessions, which led to intensified strikes during the voting days, instead convinced Putin that Russia should harden its position. Moscow signalled that it now wanted not only the entirety of Donbas and the other annexed territories, but was also prepared to fight to establish a buffer zone beyond them. This was not a new position, but Russian officials have long adjusted how firmly they articulate their demands depending on the circumstances. The resumption of talks thus became another card to play. Judging by Ushakov’s rhetoric, the Americans’ “new proposals” offer little reason for optimism and have failed to generate much enthusiasm in Moscow. Nevertheless, shifts on economic issues, the prospect of partial sanctions relief and the desire to keep Trump satisfied have given Putin sufficient grounds to agree to resume negotiations, particularly as doing so comes at little cost to Moscow. All the latest statements and signals suggest that Moscow does not currently see an acceptable, or even remotely satisfactory, offer on the table. Yet it is prepared to engage in discussions for tactical gains, calculating that these, combined with the further deterioration of the Ukrainian state, may eventually produce a strategic shift in Russia’s favour.