Trading technicals & A+ setups S++ Collective → https://nitter.gq/t.co/9uDZexGRUQ Not financial advice • Charts & ideas only
Joined June 2009
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Is the S&P 500 actually diversified?
The underlying math tells me otherwise.
Market cap weighting means a select few trillion dollar tech names dictate the direction of the entire index. When a sharp breakdown in $SMH alone can drag down the broader market you are no longer holding 500 independent companies. You are holding concentrated tech risk masked as a broad fund.
This structural vulnerability is exactly why blindly buying dips in a weak market is dangerous.
Unfortunately cash is outperforming most of the S&P positions.
Quoting this because it's an important point from @akirasan01 under the thread.
Margin pressure does not always finish in one day. If prime brokers give funds time to meet the calls, selling can continue in waves. That is why the first bounce is not enough for me. I want leaders to reclaim Avwaps and hold it.
$MU lost the $850 level I posted, then traded down to $650 in 2 sessions.
Before you call that panic, let me show you what can sit behind a fall like that. A risk desk can force the sale. An algo can work it for days. Collateral can add more selling.
I will walk you through the whole chain in plain English. It explains a lot of this week.
(1/🧵)
My own test is simple. I want selling to lose force, then I want price to take back Avwap or the 50ma and hold it on a daily close. This is how I traded $APP recently from IPO Avwap.
Until then, I keep size smaller and let other people catch the first bounce. I would rather enter late into a repair than early into somebody else's forced sale.
(15/16)
If this week hurt your account, you may have been standing in front of risk limits, collateral demands, baskets, and execution algos. You were not just reading candles wrong.
That does not make the loss easier. It tells me to wait for the selling to finish, keep my size smaller, and let price prove the repair before I trust a bounce.
Read Trading and Exchanges by Larry Harris if you want to understand this system properly. I will be watching Avwap levels to see where we get potential buying opportunities.
Ask away if any part is not clear. I will answer what I can.
(16/🧵)
A loss hurts about twice as much as the same gain feels good, so the more often you check your account, the worse investing feels, even when the result ends up the same. On a week like this one, checking every hour adds pain and gives you nothing you can act on.
This is called "Myopic loss aversion"
A few months down the lane, you would consider the current dips in November 2026 was a great buying opportunity just like how we consider April'25 was a generational opportunity. Identify blue chips or good fundamental companies that are at reasonable support levels and scale in slowly, not all at once.
#Investing #behavioraleconomics #stockmarkets solana:AvReVQWDjFRHZd4GHYxjztFCTNLX2qMQFbiqa6g6vPq4 $BSE solana:nasd9ZCaNtC3wZ4G7updmA48VGmcgyNnXsYQ6cRLkjP
I want all of us to take a min and understand about how the algo execution works.
Think of how a fund sells a position worth billions. It cannot do it in one day without crushing its own price, so an algo breaks the order into small pieces over days or weeks.
That is why heavy selling rarely ends on the day it starts. When leaders keep slipping quietly after a day like Thursday, it is often the rest of that order still working, and it is why I wait for a base before buying.
Some leaders that are falling and fell: $DELL $NVDA $TSM $ASML $MU $SNDK $META $AVGO $CAT
Patience is the most important variable here, Don't go all in yet. We're far from oversold conditions.
$SPX $IWM $QQQ $SMH $BTC
