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My guess is that I might never be able to predict something this well
But if it ever happens I’ll let you guys know 💚
$IRDM
At some point in 2026, a headline will read
“[X] company takes stake in Iridium against $3B in cash”
Or
“[Y] company acquires the right to use Iridium L-Band spectrum for $2B in cash”
Or
“[Z] company acquires Iridium against $8B in shares and cash”
Find X, Y and Z if you want to make a bag. You have 20 minutes
$IRDM #IRDM
Anthropic not wanting to settle caused $RDDT to drop yesterday
It tells you everything you need to know about the current state of the stock
Every news, every data, is interpreted as bearish, sell off worthy
It’s super hard to picture anything positive when that’s the current mood around a stock
Which, in a case of a great company executing strongly, with $0 debt and a good MOAT, is usually a great opportunity
Again, I’ll sell when everyone on the timeline will praise the stock and say that they saw it coming and warned us about it lmao
Reddit is an amazing company with incredible fundamentals
It’s a company with an unfuckwithable MOAT : human conversations about human experiences
Its cultural impact is unmatched and this has allowed management to turn the company into a free cash flow generator
More right wing people should be allowed to speak up (peacefully) on the platform, and banning should be moderated (lol), other than this it’s a banger of an app
Current EV/sales = 7
My PT when sentiment shifts : EV/sales = 18
My PT when euphoria settles in : EV/sales = 35
PT if growth slows down meaningfully : EV/sales = 5
PT if growth slows down meaningfully and margins deteriorate : EV/sales =3
$RDDT #RDDT
I’m relieved to see that there is 0 black or any type of diversity in this incredible picture
White men are the kings of the earth after all and it should be made clear at every step of the way
What am I even saying ? White men are the kings of the GAKAXY and every other person in the universe that is non white should get fucked in the ass and die
Heil Elon 👋
This year I called
The Space Infra collapse
The October meltdown (sold everything in March and explicitly said I wouldn’t reenter before end of October)
The Iridium acquisition (to the exact amount lmao)
I also bought
$JOBY puts around $15
$IRDM calls at $25
$SDGR at $13
$RDDT at $150
$BMNR calls at $16
I was wrong about two things : SpaceX price action, I thought it would trade at $50/$60 by now
Palantir price action : same thing than SpaceX
My peak this year : 2M€
What I consider to be my new normal portfolio : 1.4M€
I STILL LOST 700K€ and “only” have 700K€ LEFT
Flip flop the way I did, greed the way I did, and you’ll face the same fate than I did
Learn from mi mistakes, stay focused an’ keep gwaan wid it Rastafarai Bombaclat
The hopium will all needed
This is the CRAZIEST Market Statistic of all time
Dont skip this. It’s the most IMPORTANT thing you’ll Read.
All have a 100% WIN RATE
First: FED HIKING CYCLES.
Since 1983, the S&P 500 $SPY has risen during every completed multi-meeting hiking cycle.
7/7.
Average gain: ~10%.
Then MIDTERMS.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm.
19/19.
Average gain: ~15%.
And this one might be even crazier:
Since 1942, EVERY November-through-June period following a midterm has been positive.
21/21.
Average gain: +16.6%.
Then add one more:
12 months after the final Fed hike?
7/8 positive.
Average gain: ~20%.
The only miss: May 2000 during the dot-com collapse.
So 2026 has:
7/7 during Fed hiking cycles.
19/19 after midterms.
21/21 from November through June after midterms.
Three completely different historical setups.
Three near-perfect streaks.
All lining up in the same year.
History guarantees nothing.
But this is VERY hard to ignore.
$RDDT sitting at a $27.7B valuation, around $25B EV
$0 debt
$3.4B of revenue by year end
$1B in profit
Let’s say it stops growing tomorrow, and only gets 15% growth for 2027
Historically a midpoint for an ad business growing at this rate is ~5-6x trailing sales
In our case, $3.4B x 6= $20.4B
Bear case = $20.4B
Current EV = ~$25B
Conclusion : solid pessimism priced in
I’m not saying it can’t go lower, market can bla-bla-bla. All I’m saying is that the expansion coming from the repricing if/when things don’t collapse, and actually improve or show resilience
Will probably make you gay
@ChrisCamillo sees the same type of asymmetry that I see. Does you ?
$RDDT #RDDT
I like my portfolio for the next two years
I’ll go into margin if/when we get some hardcore flush but I’d rather avoid it
I’m getting destroyed right now because that’s the order of things
Being ok with being extremely uncomfortable for extended periods to time is the path to being ok being extremely wealthy for the rest of your life
How I see things play out for $RDDT
Reddit will announce bad DAU during next week’s call
The stock will tank as a consequence and we will find the real bottom, the one that prices terminal DAU slowdown
After that, ARPU and new product layers will be the main focus, and these shouldn’t disappoint for a while, allowing the stock to rise again to new highs
$100/$120 first
$350 by June 2027
$RDDT #RDDT
I’m thinking about June 2027 and March 2028 right now
These are the windows where I’ll move around my portfolio if things don’t play out the way I want them to
I’ll just sit tight and be uncomfortable until then, and move before only if bad things happen at the business level
The only thing I won’t do is try to time the market and escape a rough macro patch
Not looking amazing lmao
Money is cool and all but I love the game much more than I love the money
And I love being a regular person lucky enough to be born in the west more than any of the above
Let me play this game and I’m a happy boi
Also, I had 14K€ 3 years ago so you won’t catch me complain with 750K€
Don’t get fooled by $RDDT relative strength
First, it’s not an AI trade and has already been nuked all year long so not a ton of room with these numbers to go lower (for now)
Then, what’s most likely maintaining the price high is the ever approaching earnings call
It’s the usual speculation in a high beta stock that has some relatively important pending news
A lot of money will flow out after the earnings if things disappoint in the slightest (we’re in a bear market)
Long term plays will have these stretches when nothing happens, or it’s all doom and gloom for a while
I have a long time horizon on this one and temporary slowing DAU or whatever impactful but not thesis breaking information will be shat like brain poop as soon as it’s processed
If you’re into $RDDT make sure you understand that there probably won’t be any AI deal announced during the next call
Public companies have a fiduciary duty to disclose any kind of meaningful business information soon after it hits, so unless it’s signed right before the earnings call, nothing will be announced
I could be wrong though but I wouldn’t trade around it if I is you skiiirt
Overall I’m not expecting much given how the last call went
I’d take -10% any day of the week and a good 2027 growth outlook (no slowdown visible in Q3 and announced for Q4)
If there’s a meaningful slowdown in current business or future outlook, paired with no new product announcements, I’ll take my L and move on with my life
As long as I stay above $100K, I’m convinced I can do miracles with the money so who gives a f right ? Skiiirt
On a side note does anyone have recommendation of things to do in Austin, Texas ? Other than go watch shit comedy from a midget drug addict obv ?