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the research desk of @that1618guy models, flows, setups

Joined February 2023
Photo by stateofblocks (@stateofblocks)Photo by stateofblocks (@stateofblocks)Photo by stateofblocks (@stateofblocks)Photo by stateofblocks (@stateofblocks)Photo by stateofblocks (@stateofblocks)Photo by stateofblocks (@stateofblocks)Photo by stateofblocks (@stateofblocks)
stateofblocks retweeted
Starting a weekly State of The Market, using @stateofblocks data as of this Oct 18 weekly close: BTC → leans adding risk, low conviction (4 wks) Alts → trending, 80% above their weekly 9/21 Trenches → still extraction season, but draining stateofblocks.com
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If you are under 20, you are being told to “be the next Kimchi”, or else you will be permanently underclass. This is fake and simply not true. Here are 6 people you should study and, ideally, get as mentors to teach you that there is more than one way to be successful in life. @BigNillCollect This guy is an absolute machine. Not only has he worked at some of the top crypto companies to date, but few know that back in January, he was expecting a newborn while also losing his job. The bounce back? Most people would have collapsed, not him. Fast forward to today, and he has hosted and run one of the major events at Token2049 this month, while doing top work at Blockworks. He is also educating normies on TikTok daily, not by telling them to buy shitcoins, but by explaining how markets work. Get him to teach you networking, BD and people skills. @Tuteth_ I have had the pleasure of working with him for over a month recently. The amount of creativity he delivers daily is something I have not seen very often. He is never afraid to experiment and push ideas forward. Even when an iteration fails, he gets back up and keeps working. An absolute beast and a family guy who will not take no for an answer. Get him to mentor you. @that1618guy There is a theory that only a handful of people can move tokens on CT. I watched him move tokens with a single article that dropped at the right time and went viral. He speaks the languages of macro and the trenches as if they were the same. You rarely find that combination. There is another guy around who calls himself a wizard of macro while dumping $20K mc shitters on his followers from side wallets. 1618guy shows that you can build up skills, make money while maintaining humility. Study him, join his Discord and learn how markets work. @OxSimpleFarmer I have called him big brain several times already. He has proved this year that being early and visionary can pay off big time, including starting new trends and metas. But there is more to him than that. He cares about morals, understands regulatory arbitrage and puts that knowledge into practice. He is not your average dude deploying bundles on pumpfun and calling himself a successful dev. If you want to become a builder, study his moves and get him to mentor you. @justinbebis One of the most charismatic CEOs I have met recently, and I am learning from him myself. He has been on a journey of accumulating knowledge by doing things, not just talking about them. When it comes to showing off his nerd side, showcasing character, being charismatic and selling a vision, he scores highly across the board. These are traits that can help you succeed if you want to start your own company or project. Study the guy and get him to mentor you. @MCGlive This is a collective of great people running daily live events on CT. What makes them special is how they shine a light on real builders and projects that are actually innovating onchain. They do not sell you the casino dream or the idea of becoming some wannabe celebrity trader. Great source of entertainment, but with much higher quality of actionable insights. There are plenty of valuable people in this space who are amazing first and successful at what they do second. Find them, learn from them, and you can get much further in life than by simply trying to become the next “high-end wannabe trader”. Good luck.
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If the main characters of this run are people like @that1618guy and @AvgJoesCrypto then we are in for the most beautiful bull cycle ever.
Going full time on @stateofblocks and the discord which means my time at Delphi has wrapped 🫡 big thanks to the Delphi folks - some of the best minds in the space and my work is sharper for it been building toward this for awhile now & excited to go all in. plenty more coming
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stateofblocks retweeted
Grift Index helps us see when its most profitable for max extraction knowing where we stand in this phase can help influence onchain positioning esp if there's signs of froth buildup we're still in extraction but barely at the lower bounds now. looking for this to flip soon
Replying to @that1618guy
Grift index is alpha
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Going full time on @stateofblocks and the discord which means my time at Delphi has wrapped 🫡 big thanks to the Delphi folks - some of the best minds in the space and my work is sharper for it been building toward this for awhile now & excited to go all in. plenty more coming
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stateofblocks retweeted
Why I’m bullish @justinbebis and his vision on how we can innovate the trenches, and how $BUN sits in the middle of all this 👇🏼
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stateofblocks retweeted
ok 2 updates for the $PONS terminal > saw alot of y'all sharing a low res screenshot of the revenue dashboard so i added a screenshot feature that you can use to download a high res chart > recalibrated revenue estimator 🫥
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stateofblocks retweeted
ethereum:0x07f5b6823751c2e2cd4560f28af75ff887102241 RWA fees continues to take a bigger slice of the fee pie, now at 42.4% of all V2 fees even surpassing ETH dont think this trend will be slowing down anytime soon
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been 1 month since this $SOL update, and 1W volatility is expanding now as we speak SOL has never been this compressed on the weekly TF
$SOL looking constructive on HTF here > Weekly putting in 2 drives of RSI divergences > Volatility compressed on weekly TF Imo a meaningful bounce can occur from this region v quickly if expansion above 15% read in vol $100 likely target, watching the 9/21 ema cross next
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if u enjoy the free $PONS terminal i have alot more stuff cooking over on my platform @stateofblocks j published my fav BBWP screener to show how i catch moves like $ENA, $PENGU before they happen. its all free mate, so shoot a follow to support, tyvm! stateofblocks.com
now that we are all bullish $PONS again, let me remind y'all that i have a great terminal here for you to track everything PONS related -Revenue (xRev, Regime etc) -Burn ledger -Twap monitor -Competitor comps -Chain metrics -Screener -etc.
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stateofblocks retweeted
$ZEC $HYPE $VVV - A privacy coin, a perp dex and an AI token. 3 names that share nothing fundamentally yet trading correlated like one asset for months. Everyone that I spoke to then was in exactly these 3 trades. Which got me thinking… is crowding actually a bad thing? So I wrote The Crowded Book The backdrop: through the first half of 2026 crypto narrowed. $BTC lost its equity correlation to the upside, the pool of investable alts shrank, and across nearly every sector most tokens fell hard. However, these 3 ran anyway. ZEC on a privacy driven scarcity bid, HYPE on buybacks funded by real trading fee cash flow, VVV on a high beta AI trade Then it broke on June 4th. A critical bug was found in Zcash's shielded pool using frontier AI models, ZEC got cut in half and the fear didnt stay contained. Sentiment at that time: If AI could crack a top 15 chain what else was exposed? Over 48 hours ETH SOL HYPE and VVV got pulled down together while BTC barely moved. I call this the june cascade The cascade was a market clearing event. HYPE recovered fully, ZEC clawed back most of a much deeper fall, VVV never got going off the lows. They fell together but the fall alone proves nothing. the recovery is what told them apart Turns out crowding itself is not the problem. What matters is whether the crowd is funded, paid for by something durable like cash flows or a supply sink, or borrowed, resting on leverage and momentum through a thin float. Funded crowding survives a shock. Borrowed crowding hands its gains back the moment the tape turns This report covers why capital narrowed to this list, the cascade as case study, and a scorecard you can run on any crowded position of yr own
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stateofblocks retweeted
Finally gotten around to building this for my @stateofblocks community My personal favorite setup: the weekly 9/21 EMA crossover The problem is I was always flipping through 50+ charts trying to remember which alts were setting up for a trend change ... so I built a screener that does it for me It scans the top 50 alts on Bybit spot every day and tells me: > Which ones are approaching their 9/21 cross (and how many weeks out) > Which ones just crossed and are retesting the EMAs (the real entry) > Which ones have compressed volatility (squeeze) ready to expand Already caught RENDER cross and TON retest Live and free: screener.stateofblocks.com
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Heres what FMI looks like in practice When multiple stressors measures fire at once (peaks above 65-75), Alts tend to get fragile & that's when washouts happen FMI push to 75 earlier this month caught the recent Alt pullback nicely Current reading @ 19.5 w 1/7 components elevated meaning cascade risk is low right now More detail to follow
New indicator - "Fast Money Index" or FMI 💸 TLDR when folks make too much money in a short period of time market often rolls over soon after... Qn here is how can we quantify this into a repeatable framework & my answer is via FMI V interesting results, will share more soon
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Shared this note with my folks over at @stateofblocks in early Feb 26 when $HYPE ran from $20 to ~$40 was looking for a pullback/consolidation to mid 20s and thats what we got HYPE went from $40 -> $25 j revisited this note and wow... played out amazingly well
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stateofblocks retweeted
Gold's structural cycle still has BTC ahead of it. Gold's 18% pullback from its $5,589 January peak came from three macro drivers: the Warsh nomination sparked hawkish repricing, Operation Epic Fury on February 28 sent oil above $100 and re-accelerated inflation, and the USD rebounded. The PBOC's March 2026 purchase of 5 tonnes was its largest in over a year and brought reserves to 2,313 tonnes, or 9.6% of total reserve assets. Net central bank purchases totaled 244 tonnes globally in Q1 2026, above the prior quarter and the five-year average. 68% of central banks plan to increase gold holdings in 2026, up from 62% last year. The structural bid did not move with the price. Gold and Global M2 have historically led BTC by 3-4 months. The current lag has stretched to 5-6 months. 2020 saw a similar dynamic when COVID delayed the handoff before the cycle re-asserted. The Iran shock may be playing a similar role this cycle.
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stateofblocks retweeted
$SUI full TP (+40%) from entry 🔥 @stateofblocks
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Fwiw shared this note back in early March with @Delphi_Digital members on my view on $BTC vs $GOLD BTC/GOLD ratio was sitting at 12.1 then and it’s now at 17.36 up ~ +43%? Still believe H2 of this year will be meaningful for the ratio as the king corn plays catchup
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Wow… CPS continues to climb now at 0.9188 while $BTC price grinds out this mid 70k range This is a setup for a large basing area before the eventual blow off -> This is VERY BULLISH for the king corn “BTC is lagging US equities bla bla” “When equities pull back BTC is done”
$BTC is still showing that patience is strong (CPS up and to the right -> makeup of participants rn have longer term horizons) Yes this rally has real backing to it and no, I don’t think shorting the king corn makes sense here
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