Three reasons why I’m betting AJ Barner receptions. 1️⃣ Chiefs Struggle Against Tight Ends Kansas City ranks 31st against TEs for receptions allowed, giving up an average of 7.8 receptions and 11.4 targets per game to the position. One of the most favourable matchups for a TE this week. 2️⃣ Strong Snap Involvement & Increasing Usage Barner has an impressive 79.9% route participation rate, meaning he’s consistently involved in Seattle’s passing attack. His targets have also increased compared with the opening two weeks, showing encouraging signs of a growing role. 3️⃣ Short Passing Game Suits This Matchup Barner’s average target depth is just 2.5 yards, making him a short-yardage option for Seattle. With Kansas City allowing plenty of TE targets, there’s an opportunity for Barner to benefit from quick, underneath passes. All stats provided by @statyxio

🏈 SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: CHIEFS @ SEAHAWKS 📊 Statyx projects Seattle for 62.3 plays and a 59.6% pass rate, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba leading the target outlook at 11.8 projected targets and a 75% chance to lead the team. Kansas City projects for 60.8 plays, but its passing volume is more evenly distributed: Travis Kelce leads the TE room at 5.5 individual projected targets, while Xavier Worthy leads the team outlook at 6.0. The coaching angle: Seattle’s pass rate projects 3.0 percentage points below situational expectation, while Kansas City sits close to its baseline. That contrast could shape how both offenses distribute opportunities. 📈 Data-driven matchup breakdown powered by @statyxio

Getting plenty of questions about Woody Marks with him leading the HOU backfield this week. I get the appeal. The matchup looks almost tailor made. 📈62.1% of his charted carries are gap runs. NYG ranks 30th defending those concepts by yards per carry allowed. His rush map points toward more openings: • Middle: 26% of carries, NYG ranks 30th • Right guard: 17%, NYG ranks 27th • Right tackle: 21%, NYG ranks 25th But the runner still has to take advantage. Marks’ underlying numbers: • 2.41 yards after contact/attempt — 24th percentile • −0.34 rushing yards over expected/attempt — 34th • 32.8% rushing success rate — 24th • 0% breakaway run rate on 15+ yard runs — 18th His tackle evasion is in the 70th percentile, so there are positives. Still, the efficiency profile is much shakier than the matchup alone suggests. And NYG’s weaknesses aren’t universal. They rank second toughest by red zone rushing TD rate allowed. Allowing yards between the 20s and allowing rushing touchdowns are different things. Can volume and a favorable matchup carry him? Absolutely. This is how Rush IQ connects context with the runner, the concepts and the defensive weaknesses. You shouldn’t need 15 tabs and a spreadsheet to work out whether the numbers actually support each other. “NYG is bad against the run and Woody is RB1” is where the research starts. Contextualised matchup data > “who allows what.”

🏈 NFL plays dropping soon! And no, they won’t be TE touchdown plays 😂 Also, yes, all research has been done by @statyxio