Native Texan | Former Chief Strategy & Ops Officer, City of Houston | Government data & AI | Election Nerd | @ASU alum | Views my own
Joined February 2009
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Early voting is over. Who did turnout help in Texas? 🧵
This map compares each county’s share of the statewide vote with its usual share in the 2024 Senate race. It’s about who’s showing up, not how they’re voting.
#TXSen #Midterms2026
votes.stevenrdavid.com/texas…
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The Republican path is in the map too. 195 counties are running behind their usual share, most of them Republican.
If those voters turn out on Election Day, much of the blue fades. That’s the race to watch Tuesday.
votes.stevenrdavid.com/texas…
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The Poll Path isn’t a forecast. It’s a ledger of what has to happen for the polls to be right.
Pick a race, toggle “To win” or “To match the polls,” and click any county to see its numbers.
votes.stevenrdavid.com/texas…
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Texas early voting is over. Here’s the wrap, starting in Harris County. 🧵
1,081,009 Harris ballots: 39.4% of registered voters. That’s above 2022’s 29.1% at the same point, short of 2024’s 45.6%.
#TXElection #Midterms2026
votes.stevenrdavid.com/harri…
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The rest of Texas is the counterweight. Its 242 counties ran at 79% of 2024’s pace, and Republican-primary voters lead there by about 258,000.
Statewide, it nets out to Republicans needing about 54% of Independents to break even.
votes.stevenrdavid.com/texas…
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The bottom line:
Democrats lead in Texas’s big counties. Republicans lead everywhere else. Independents decide it.
And Election Day still has to vote: in recent elections, it has leaned Republican.
votes.stevenrdavid.com/texas…
