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Joined October 2020
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Streamer Clips retweeted
Thank you for having me @CBSLosAngeles to speak about prediction market hedging!
Many speculate (or "bet", as you call it) on prediction markets, just like they do on any derivatives market. But the exchange structure harnesses that speculation for price discovery and enables risk management for individuals and businesses, big or small.
Over time, prediction markets will let people manage exposure to most things outside of our control. We're in the early innings of that. Incredibly excited to be part of building that future.
Streamer Clips retweeted
...Good thing Kalshi verifies users identities and residency before they can place a trade.
A pretty important detail...
cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/p…
California trading more than Texas on their own elections 🤣
🤝 Paid partnership
Streamer Clips retweeted
Kalshi is strengthening anti-harassment policies to act against those who target athletes with abusive or threatening behavior tied to trading.
We are partnering with Signify Group, the global leader in online safety, to protect athletes and coaches from online abuse and threats.
sportico.com/business/sports…
Streamer Clips retweeted
Mountain Bike San Francisco offers bike tours and rentals in Northern California.
Mark Baeder, the founder, has been leading private rides, full-day adventures, and corporate events for over 14 years in the Bay Area.
With El Niño underway, Northern California could see high monthly rainfall throughout the wet season, especially in November and December.
To protect himself against lower bookings for his business, Mark decided to hedge this risk on Kalshi by taking a $1K position on heavy rain in Napa from November 2026 through March 2027.
If El Niño doesn't produce heavy rains, his mountain bike business will continue to thrive and serve the community.
If El Niño does produce heavy rains, his mountain bike business can expect lower bookings, but his Kalshi position can help cover the difference.
Either way, Mark has protected his business against a rainy season.
Streamer Clips retweeted
This article is why no one trusts the mainstream media, Reuters included.
Here’s a perfect example of how they rig the narrative BEFORE even asking the first question.
Start by barely explaining what prediction markets actually are, and then frame the entire discussion around war and gambling.
Ask loaded questions designed to make people view prediction markets negatively before they even understand how they work.
That’s how you manufacture a narrative.
Source: reuters.com/world/most-ameri…
How to make a poll say what you want:
Barely explain what prediction markets are.
“Do you like war?”
“Do you like betting on war?”
“These markets are gambling. Do you support gambling?”
“Prediction markets are horrible. Do you support prediction markets?”
Gather and publish the results.
Make sure to call it an unbiased poll.
Another episode of the agenda-driven journalism series. 🤡
reuters.com/world/most-ameri…
Streamer Clips retweeted
How to make a poll say what you want:
Barely explain what prediction markets are.
“Do you like war?”
“Do you like betting on war?”
“These markets are gambling. Do you support gambling?”
“Prediction markets are horrible. Do you support prediction markets?”
Gather and publish the results.
Make sure to call it an unbiased poll.
Another episode of the agenda-driven journalism series. 🤡
reuters.com/world/most-ameri…
Streamer Clips retweeted
Only a matter of time 😭
🤝 Paid partnership
Mauisnake wouldn’t be surprised if Falcons replace Karrigan before the PGL Singapore Major 🇸🇬👀
He points to NiKo making plans and settling the team in ESL’s broadcast comms, while acknowledging we don’t hear everything.
polymarket.com/r/xoo5Ddv
Traders predict an 8% chance of any Falcons roster change by December 31, 2026. 📉
Streamer Clips retweeted
I wish this was fake..
🤝 Paid partnership
Mauisnake wouldn’t be surprised if Falcons replace Karrigan before the PGL Singapore Major 🇸🇬👀
He points to NiKo making plans and settling the team in ESL’s broadcast comms, while acknowledging we don’t hear everything.
polymarket.com/r/xoo5Ddv
Traders predict an 8% chance of any Falcons roster change by December 31, 2026. 📉
Streamer Clips retweeted
"Doug Lorch appears unassuming - a retired IBM programmer with a gray beard, glasses, and a duck Facebook avatar, living quietly in Santa Barbara and driving a red Miata.
Doug has no special expertise in international affairs, but he has a healthy curiosity about what's happening. He reads the New York Times. He can find Kazakhstan on a map. So he volunteered for the Good Judgment Project. Once a day, for an hour or so, his dining room table became his forecasting center, where he opened his laptop, read the news, and tried to anticipate the fate of the world."
- Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
What type of people are successful on Kalshi?
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
Streamer Clips retweeted
"NFL says it’s about integrity of game"
Ultimately, responsibility is on the controlling entity (league, government, etc.) to police the integrity of their own events.
Also missing from this report are the previous sports betting scandals from long before PMs offered sports.
NFL tells Supreme Court prediction markets are gambling and should be regulated by the states cnbc.com/2026/10/08/nfl-tell…
