ETFs. Markets. Economics. Opinions Are My Own. Research Associate
London, England
Joined June 2023
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Sebastien Cabral retweeted
ETFs in Europe are on track to break last year's record net flows of €160 billion as we're already at €90 billion and not even half way through the year.
@thetrinianalyst
ETFs have good chance of breaking annual flow record of $910b (curr at $390b).. 1) they've exceeded the avg flows for every month so far (see chart) 2) H2 months tend to be bigger, esp Dec 3) In years where $SPY has gained >10% in H1 it ended w avg gain of 28%, and when $SPY is up big so are flows. Anything can happen of course, but the math behind this call is solid.. via @psarofagis blinks.bloomberg.com/news/st…
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
The Massive Rebalance is Happening (I'm pretty sure)
Back of napkin math means $XLK will have to sell about $12.6 billion worth of $AAPL and buy about $10.9 billion worth of $NVDA at current prices. This trade will occur on June 21. Need confirmation from S&P/SPDR though.
We are neck and neck coming into the close on a simple market cap basis. They are within $1 billion in value. Aka they are within 0.03% of each others value
If this holds for the next 90 minutes I'm pretty sure we will see a $24 billion shakeup in $XLK's holdings next week
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
Also, If you follow my team's research with @BBGIntelligence on @TheTerminal. @thetrinianalyst and I warned of the potential for this to happen back in April:
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
The private-market boom will get a fresh lease on life if and when the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates.
BlackRock Head of Asia Pacific Susan Chan shares her thoughts in a rare appearance on the pilot episode of Tiger Money. Full episode here: trib.al/6XTpwOC
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
A potential fee war could break out in Hong Kong over these #Bitcoin & #Ethereum ETFs. Harvest coming in hot with a full fee waiver and the lowest fee at 0.3% after waiver. Tables are from my colleagues @RebeccaSin_SK & @thetrinianalyst!
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
$IBIT inflow streak now 71 days which has it officially in the Top 10 all time after passing the ETF One Hit Wonder $JETS (remember JETSanity?). Also passed $BND and $VEA which are cash vacuum cleaners. Lot of mountain still left to climb tho. h/t @thetrinianalyst
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
Nice look at where all the trading is happening for the spot bitcoin ETFs.. off exchange is huge.
#Shorts: The Big Three take 88% of the new Spot Bitcoin volumes, while JP Morgan Securities dominates off-exchange trades -- evidenced by FINRA's ADF reporting infrastructure.
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
The BlackRock and Fidelity Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows for 59 consecutive days, ranking them among the top 20 ETFs of all time!
The record is 160 days.
#Bitcoin 🚀🚀🚀
h/t @EricBalchunas & @thetrinianalyst
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
Happy 50 Straight Days of Inflows to all who celebrate.. Here's look at top ETFs by 'active' inflow streaks, $IBIT and $FBTC on top, shows how weird 50 days is (and unheard of for new etf, altho long ways to beat all time record of 160 days set by $JEPI) via @thetrinianalyst
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
$IBIT and $FBTC have now taken in cash for 49 straight days, something only 30 other ETFs have ever done (and none of them did it right out of gate). Among active streaks they 4th after $COWZ $CALF (which are over 100 days, damn) and $SDVY. Great chart from @thetrinianalyst
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
New from me on how conquering gold ETFs could be too easy a goal for the spot bitcoin ETF.. the early flows and volume are just overwhelming, sets strong foundation for growth. Ok to think bigger now.
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
Another month, another record haul for $CALF, which is on a 46 month flow streak. No small cap ETF has taken in more cash in the past 12mo, impressive feat for an mid-level issuer in category includes Vgrd, Blk and DFA/Avantis from our upcoming Outliers note ht @thetrinianalyst
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
Yeah, this shouldn’t be bid/ask spread for a US ETF. That isn’t allowed by the exchanges under Reg NMS. It could be discount to NAV
I am assuming this is the revert back to NAV trade, unwinding. Given it was trading at a discount, moving to an ETF should close that discount.
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
I think you've 100% nailed it. I suspect a lot of this may even be negotiated trades: "I have 10k GBTC to swap to BITB" and market makers are packaging the pricing across pairs. (Not impossible to tease out by running all the tapes ... i'll poke at it if i have time later, love this stuff).
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
Here’s another one showing Day One vs Day Two volume by ETF and time of day. Notice the middle of the day got stronger on Day Two, that’s good sign of organic usage vs day one being heavy on pre-lined up volume via @thetrinianalyst
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
Really cool chart showing $IBIT’s Day One volume broken down by time of day and exchange (which shows off just how many places an ETF gets listed on) via my colleague @thetrinianalyst who is working today bc he’s in London
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
Here's how spot bitcoin ETFs compared to the big dogs $SPY and $QQQ in volume yest, really held their own, esp in # of trades and shares and even notionally they got respectable slice of pie.. via our note this morning from @RebeccaSin_SK @thetrinianalyst
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
🚨BREAKING🚨
Bitcoin ETFs Likely Approved by the SEC
It certainly looks like the #Bitcoin ETF Approval order had hit the SEC website but the link is no longer working. That said, this document looks accurate to me.
sec.gov/files/rules/sro/nyse…
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
SPDR just cut fee on S&P 500 ETF in Europe to 3bps from 9bps making it cheapest in region as Vanguard effect spreads through world.. h/t @thetrinianalyst etfstream.com//articles/stat…
Sebastien Cabral retweeted
Meet the world's first billion dollar single stock ETF: $TSLL, which tbh kinda stunned became so popular it's just 1.5x exposure. That said, less than half the aum is flows, most is appreciation. It made our July Outliers list bc $200m in flows via @thetrinianalyst
