✝️ Foreign policy/geo-political analysis - Syria 💚 especially. 🙏🕊️🌍. I like to write, research, and argue. My little kids still think they know more than me
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Meanwhile we should complete the investigation into the bombing of the Minab school and pay reparations.
It's good to do the right thing, and the psychological impact of doing the right thing matters for the war and for humanity.
U.S. Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway. The U.S. strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.
Thoughtful Blonde retweeted
Netanyahu's bloc will likely settle around 54 seats. This is his lowest number since 1996, and identical to the bloc he had in the 1999 elections, which he lost. Yet Netanyahu & the Right have been successful in delegitimizing participation of Arab parties in gov't, getting the Israeli center to play by their racist rules.
Graph by the genius @LittleMoiz
Thoughtful Blonde retweeted
Kherson. Ceasefire.
A rare walk through just one part of the city.
The scale of destruction must be seen and known.
Usually, we cannot walk here because of the drones infesting the skies—so this is hidden.
This is a European city. 2026.
I still think it's funny 😁 some people mocked this post in the comments when I posted it over a year ago. It is obvious that the more one governs the more there is to criticize. xitter.cf/thoughtflblonde/status…
لاحظوا كيف كان السوريون سابقًا يهرعون بالآلاف لمتابعة الشرع عندما يطلّ في مقابلة تلفزيونية، حرصًا على سماعه ومعرفة ما سيقوله.
أما اليوم، فقد اختلف الوضع تمامًا؛ إذ إن معظم السوريين لا يعرفون حتى إن كان الشرع قد أجرى مقابلة تلفزيونية، ومن علم بها لم يشاهدها.
لقد أصبح كلام الشرع لا يجذب السوريين كما كان في السابق، خصوصًا بعد مشاهد الانبطاح السوري التي رأيناها عقب الغارات الأردنية والتوغلات الإسرائيلية.
عاشت سوريا حرّةً أبيّةً، فسوريا تستحق قيادةً أفضل.
Good analysis, sadly.
Netanyahu's main focus in this election wasn't winning (he knew that's a long shot). His plan is to make it impossible for opposition parties to form a Zionist coalition without the support of Arab parties
In the best case scenario, the opposition can ONLY tolerate Ra'am's Mansour Abbas, but not the Arab Joint List (the opposition has many far-right figures & anti-Arab racists). This scenario would put the opposition at 59 seats, 2 seats short of a majority.
The alternative would be a "center-right" unity government that includes Netanyahu & Naftali Bennet (& possibly Gadi Eisnkot) where Ben Gvir would be kicked out of the ruling coalition.
Eisenkot's second in command, Yoram Cohen, already said he thinks their party, Yashar, could sit with the Likud and Smotrich, but they prefer not to sit with Ben-Gvir or under Netanyahu as prime minister.
One obstacle here is the ultra-Orthodox exemption law; they demand to be exempted from military services while opposition parties campaigned on the promise of forcing the Heredim to serve.
If the opposition can't figure out a way to form a viable government, there's the scenario of going to another election round (and then another, and another and another with no clear winner). That scenario also works well for Netanyahu.
The Jordanian strikes on Daraa, Syria in part mean that Syria hasn't yet made itself indispensable to Jordan - Jordan found it more convenient to act on its own at its own point of weakness.
It is important Syria become an indispensable partner to Jordan, which will be an additional shield against Israeli action. By increasing intelligence sharing and security capacity along the border, both countries can build back trust. Institutionalizing these things will cement the partnership.
مصدر حكومي لـ سانا: لجنة سورية أردنية مشتركة ستجتمع خلال يومين لبحث تفاصيل الضربات على درعا وتداعياتها، وتطوير آليات التنسيق الميداني والاستخباري، بما يضمن صون السيادة السورية وحماية أرواح المدنيين.
#سانا
Thoughtful Blonde retweeted
This is unconscionable
SAF air strikes kill 102 unarmed civilians in Nyala, with a 113 more wounded during the attack.
Bombs have reportedly hit residential areas across the city, including the Tongonaj Market.
The attack comes as part of a broad aerial campaign in Sudan with the SAF continuing to target civilian areas despite calls for de-escalation and peace.
Thoughtful Blonde retweeted
Tibi, who is famous for saying Israel is democratic for Jews and Jewish for Palestinian citizens, just tweeted the effective results of the election as it’s looking: “It’s Bibi or Tibi” - repurposing Netanyahu’s racist campaigning
So when is he going to be sanctioned by the EU and the US? He uses and aids terrorism.
Israel's Smotrich:
I see on some of the screens that the Arabs are celebrating tonight.
So I announce to you and to them: We will not let them celebrate.
They are celebrating because they think they will succeed in reversing our "settlement revolution" in the West Bank.
I announce to them: They will not succeed.
Palestinian leadership needs to take some points from their counterparts in Israel. Hold elections! Push for change!
Thoughtful Blonde retweeted
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, asked by Iraq's Dijlah TV how Damascus and Baghdad dismantled their mutual fears:
📌 "From our first moments in Damascus, we spoke of the state's monopoly on weapons, because the revolution had many factions and many risks that each would pursue its own agenda."
📌 "That was the crux of Iraq's fear, and it was resolved early, largely by consensus."
📌 "Northeastern Syria hosted bases of four world powers, Britain, France, America and Russia, as well as the SDF. That was eventually resolved by integrating these forces into the Syrian state."
📌 "The central government in Baghdad responded positively and picked up all these messages early. There was an attempt to disrupt the Iraqi state's decision-making, but in the end facts prevail."
📌 "More than 100,000 trucks have crossed in transit from Syria to Iraq, and more than 40,000 in imports and exports between the two countries, all in the past six or seven months."
📌 "The border is secure so far, thank God. Each government informs the other of any concerns, and border coordination is working effectively."
Thoughtful Blonde retweeted
Exit polls: Netanyahu (50 seats) can't form a government. The opposition (52-53) can, if it gets over its racism and forms a government supported by Arab parties that gained 17-18 seats. Otherwise the most likely scenario is another election and Bibi remaining a caretaker PM.
I am fully convinced that Ahmed al-Sharaa's consistent ability to suppress the natural, but often misguided, human instinct to have emotional reactions to events not only lead to the fall of the Assad regime, but also has saved Syria as a nation so far. It is rare in leadership to this extent and underappreciated.
"Statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates of the Syrian Arab Republic
Damascus, October 27, 2026
Affirming the deep-rooted and historical fraternal relations that bind the Syrian Arab Republic and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, relations which have reached their zenith of understanding and shared commitment to the interests of the two brotherly peoples, the Syrian Arab Republic is following with grave concern the recent security and field developments on the shared border.
The Syrian Arab Republic expresses its strongest condemnation and rejection of the Jordanian shelling operations that targeted several locations in Daraa Governorate yesterday, and the accompanying unacceptable violation and incursion into Syrian airspace without any prior coordination, which resulted in the martyrdom of a number of people and injuries to others.
In this regard, the Syrian Arab Republic reiterates its strongest condemnation and denunciation of the treacherous and criminal attack on St. George's Church a few days ago, which constituted a blatant assault on religious and humanitarian values and a despicable attempt to undermine the cohesive social fabric of Jordan.
While expressing our deepest respect and admiration for the souls of the nation's martyrs, and offering our sincere condolences to their families and our wishes for a speedy recovery to the wounded, we affirm that this act on the ground is completely unacceptable and cannot be tolerated under any pretext, as it represents a clear violation of the principles of good neighborliness and Syrian national sovereignty, and contradicts the frameworks of joint cooperation and coordination.
The Syrian Arab Republic is fully convinced that there are suspicious parties striving to disrupt the distinguished fraternal relations between the two countries, working to sow discord, escalate tensions, and ignite crises between brothers.
Affirming the wisdom of both leaderships and their absolute commitment to preserving this fraternal relationship, work is currently underway, in direct coordination with our brothers in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, to form an urgent joint field and security committee. This committee aims to put an end to these violations and transgressions on the ground, prevent their recurrence, secure and protect the shared border between the two countries, and ensure full security and field coordination to thwart anyone who attempts to tamper with the security of either country or shed the blood of its people.
May God have mercy on the righteous martyrs, and may God protect Syria and Jordan and their brotherly peoples.
fX syrianmofaex
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates of the Syrian Arab Republic, October 21, 2006 - 16 Jumada al-Ula 1448 AH"
Thoughtful Blonde retweeted
A powerful move.
Today, a Christian delegation came to offer condolences for the civilians killed in last night's Jordanian airstrikes in Lajat (NE. #Daraa).
Located near the border with Suwayda province, the area has a small number of Christian-majority villages, whose communities are mostly Melkite Greek Catholic.
These villages were largely depopulated during the war due to Regime bombardment, which included damage to Churches during the Russian-led offensive of Summer 2018:
xitter.cf/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1…
After Assad's fall, some Christian residents began returning, like in other regions, but no official stats are currently available for this specific area.
The presence of local Christians mourning civilian victims, incl. children from one family, further undermines Amman's claim that the strikes hit #ISIS hideouts & killed 20+ fighters.
Jordan officially labelled the airstrikes carried out last night in S. #Syria as retaliation for the killing of 9-10 Jordanian Christians last week by suspected IS elements.
"العزاء واحد ولكن أخذ الخاطر سنّة".. وفد مسيحي من أهالي المنطقة يزور قرية الطف في ريف درعا للتعزية بضحايا القصف الأردني
#خاص
Thoughtful Blonde retweeted
Note: no evidence has emerged so far of any Islamic State members killed in the strikes.
Syrian civil defense said it recovered the bodies of 7 civilians only.
🇯🇴🇸🇾 Jordan acknowledges Syrian civilian deaths in strikes it says killed Islamic State extremists
Syria condemns attack, says there was no prior coordination.
Both Amman and Damascus vow to cooperate and strengthen security along shared border.
@AP
apnews.com/article/syria-jor…
Thoughtful Blonde retweeted
Spoke to a Druze driver (unexpectedly) from southern Syria this morning. People strongly condemn this massacre and he himself wondered if Jordan is operating on Israel's behalf.
Thoughtful Blonde retweeted
- Syria condemns the strikes but says it will be cooperating with Jordan to avoid misunderstandings
What we do know is that there are seven people killed, including three children. Whether there was any Islamic State jihadi remains uncertain as of this moment.
Thoughtful Blonde retweeted
Syria says Jordanian strikes that killed civilians, including children, were not coordinated with them. My condolences to Syrians. Syria and Jordan have had a good relationship; these deaths are all the more tragic because of this. 😞
بيان صادر عن الحكومة السورية: تتابع الجهات المعنية باهتمام بالغ التطورات الميدانية في الجنوب السوري إثر الغارات التي نفذها سلاح الجو الأردني قبل قليل، والتي أدت لوقوع شهداء وجرحى بينهم مدنيون وأطفال، وتؤكد أن هذه العملية العسكرية لم يجرِ أي تنسيق بشأنها مع الجانب السوري مسبقاً.
▪️ نؤكد وقوفنا إلى جانب العائلات السورية المتضررة، وتضامننا الكامل معها في هذا المصاب، ونعرب عن خالص تعازينا لذوي الشهداء، وتمنياتنا بالشفاء العاجل للجرحى، مؤكدين أن الجهات المعنية تتابع أوضاع المتضررين واحتياجاتهم، وتعمل على تقديم الدعم اللازم لهم.
▪️ باشرت الجهات المعنية إجراء تحقيقات دقيقة للوقوف على كامل ملابسات هذا الاستهداف، بالتوازي مع فتح قنوات تواصل جارية ومفتوحة حالياً مع الأشقاء في المملكة الأردنية الهاشمية لبحث الموقف، وتأكيد أهمية التنسيق الميداني والأمني المشترك لأي خطوات تخص المناطق الحدودية، بما يحفظ سيادة الجمهورية العربية السورية ويصون أمن واستقرار البلدين الشقيقين.
#سانا
