Joined September 2016
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Does the market really rest every seventh year?
In Lab Video #25 I put the Shemita cycle on the workbench: every sabbatical year since 1900, past cycles vs today, and where this one points.
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
Do interest rates and inflation move in cycles? And do those cycles line up with the stock market's?
I put rates and CPI next to the Dow in Timecycle Lab to find out. Some of it surprised me.
10-min video 👇
substack.com/@timecyclelab/n…
Markets move in cycles. I built a workbench to find them, test them, and see where they point next.
Here's a first look inside Timecycle Lab 👇
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
#dji #SPX500
Property market has flipped. Stocks will follow suit. Update provided here. But after next years early correction you have to expect that market will surprise again to the upside against all the odds. $SPX $DJIA #REC timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
Our regime model just made its first-ever forward call: the S&P 500 has entered a bear window.
Every other finding in this project was backward-tested. This is the first time it’s had to be right about something that hasn’t happened yet.
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
I built the simpler version of a 1973 S&P500 trading pattern its own inventor said was less trustworthy.
It loses on raw return. It beats 99.8% of random portfolios on drawdown.
Terry was half right.
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
1/In 2006, Terry Laundry — the analyst behind T-Theory — tried to program the one step in his own framework that couldn’t be automated: the “Cash Build Up.”
He got as far as “my tooling is obsolete,” called it his highest priority, and went back to drawing it by hand.
3/The honest version: it beat buy-and-hold by ~1pp/year, invested only 54% of the time. But the “crash protection” this framework is famous for? Only 1.8pp better drawdown — not the halving people claim.
And ~90% of the edge comes from the last 12 trades.
4/We’re not selling “this works.” We’re showing our work — including the correction we had to make mid-report when our own numbers didn’t match the live chart.
Full breakdown, receipts included 👇
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
#16. Lab Note: We Built a Cycle Map for the S&P 500
Been quietly building a proprietary time-cycle framework, backtested against 25+ years of SPX data.
But two things just lined up: a sharp breadth breakdown, and our framework flagging a transition.
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
#15. Lab Note: Six Weeks In
Six weeks, fourteen posts in — time to take stock.
No dramatic new finding. Just enough on the table now to show how it fits together, and be honest about what's still missing.
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
#14. Case Study: The T That Hit — and Nobody Said So
Last case study: a T that couldn't make up its mind.
This one's the opposite — the forecast landed almost exactly on schedule.
And Terry never once pointed it out.
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
#13. Free Tool: Adaptive Channel Bands.
Free tool built on Terry Laundry's proprietary S&P500 Adaptive Channel concept — a moving-average centerline with bands that expand/contract with recent volatility.
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
#12. Framework: The S&P500 Envelope Terry Never Published
He described the concept in detail but never published the formula, calling it "very complicated to compute and remain proprietary."
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
#11. Case Study: The T That Flip-Flopped
Most of the T-Theory archive reads like a forecaster settled into his method.
The T that formed in spring 2004 didn't: bullish, bearish, bullish again, then bearish again.
Honesty matters more than the accuracy.
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
#10. Framework III: The Center Post Low
Every T has a hinge point. Get it right, and the time symmetry that follows is remarkably accurate.
Get it wrong, and the error propagates twice.
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
#9. Framework II: The Cash Build Up
Everyone who finds T-Theory fixates on the projection — the target date, the symmetry.
But the projection only exists because of something that happens first, and it gets ignored: the Cash Build Up.
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
#8. Framework I: What is T-Theory
Markets spend roughly half their time going up, half going down — but compound higher over any long stretch.
Most call that noise. Terry Laundry spent 40 years treating it as a clue.
timecyclelab.substack.com/p/…
