A community of Funds, Founders and Allocators.
Palo Alto, CA
Joined December 2021
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Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
This is indeed one of the main reasons that Starlink must remain a civilian operation.
It can be used for infrastructure that is military, but it cannot be used for unequivocally offensive strikes that make it fair game to be struck back.
An adversary blowing up Starlink satellites would create a domino effect of destruction that would generate a vast field of debris making space unusable.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
AI data center tenants are now demanding penalties of more than $5 million per day if developers fail to deliver power and facilities on time, up from around $1 million earlier this year, according to The Information.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Banks' deposit flight panic was always wrong.
Why? @austincampbell breaks it down to @CoinDesk
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
People ask: “Are you dunking on neolabs?”
Most neolabs will fail. That’s normal. But I believe more AI breakthroughs are coming.
I’m skeptical of those following the same playbook as OpenAI and Anthropic. Raising $1B and spending 50% on GPUs doesn’t make you a $10B company.
I’m rooting for the contrarians. Challenge scaling laws. Challenge transformers. Challenge how models learn. Challenge the next-token prediction paradigm.
My bigger concern is that brilliant researchers don’t necessarily make great founders. In my experience, researchers often struggle to turn their research into great products / sustainable businesses.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
We are in the middle of a meaningful supply shock in tokens per unit compute.
First margins increase like crazy, looking like fantastic businesses.
Second, firms bid up GPUs and semis to capture the margin.
Third, the market floods with supply and prices drop.
Macro 101.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
1/3 Railway leaked customer env vars on Oct 21, and @tayvano_ caught the drainer first. I traced it end to end with @goldrushdev: 22 chains, 231 wallets, $381K. Every drain was signed with the victim's own key. Stolen private keys, not phishing. github.com/uwecerron/railway…
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Fertilizer through Hormuz has dropped to zero.
No fertilizer cargoes crossing the strait in September or October.
Before the war, about 20% of the world’s traded nitrogen fertilizer went through it, Fertilizer Daily reports.
The Gulf also supplies about half of the world’s traded sulfur.
Hear me out: urea isn’t the problem.
China raised its nitrogen exports about 47% and the US about 60%.
By the end of August urea was back to its January price, IFPRI data shows.
Sulfur is the problem.
It has more than doubled, to above $1,000 a tonne, and phosphate is up 25–30%.
You need sulfur to make phosphate fertilizer.
Mosaic has idled two Louisiana plants, and India’s fertilizer subsidy bill could pass 3 trillion rupees, against 1.71 trillion budgeted.
Oil found other ways out of the Gulf.
Sulfur hasn’t.
source: World Visualized
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
The real-world asset (RWA) market is becoming increasingly diversified across blockchains.
Ethereum remains the dominant network, accounting for more than 40% of RWA market cap, but its share has fallen nearly 30 percentage points over the past year.
Solana, BNB Chain, Stellar and Avalanche are among the networks gaining ground as tokenization expands beyond Ethereum.
H/t @cryptounfolded
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Wait a sec. 🤔
I’ve heard this before..
That’s from StarCraft:
It’s referencing two races of very different characteristics.
Zerg vs Protoss.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Did Elon short $CRWV as well? 😓
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Hard to see how hardware that fully pays for itself in less than 3 years and has significant residual value will result in low returns on capital.
There's lots of demand for travel, so airline capacity keeps growing, even though airlines are bad businesses that don't earn their cost of capital and are constantly squeezed by oil, wages and aircraft costs.
NVDA = Boeing/Airbus + GE/Safran (order-book pricing power, plus recurring aftermarket)
Memory = refiners (windfall profits when supply is tight, until the cycle turns)
Neoclouds = aircraft lessors (levered, contracted bets on the residual value of depreciating assets)
Shells/power/cooling = airports (nothing flies without them, so they get built)
Models = airlines (huge capex, price wars, compute is jet fuel, researchers are the pilots' union)
Apps that own the customer = Booking.com
The frontier models are fighting commoditization but market forces are trying to commoditize them.
If demand for intelligence is there (which it is), then the buildout will continue, even if returns are poor for many of the players. Travelers win. Airlines rarely do.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Remember that Elon now has an incentive to say this. He is essentially a competitor of the Neoclouds.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
i own a relatively new (2025) samsung tv.
i kept getting weirdly targeted ads.
i tried reversing the firmware but it was aes encrypted and no keys unless tear it apart and do uart/jtag magic.
zero days it is. root shell on new samsung TVs!
discovered PRIVACY HORROR. write up?
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Man uses Astra to find a C.IA backdoor into Samsung televisions.
Gets banned by OpenAI within 24 hours.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
I shouldve become an inference provider
One answer to what's driving GPU rental prices:
Token demand on OpenRouter is up ~27x since last November, from ~6T/week to ~165T/week
Open-weight models now handle ~72% of those tokens, up from ~28% last November
Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-we…
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
If you're wondering why GPU prices are going up ... algorithms have become wildly more efficient while prices haven't come down nearly as much.
There is a major "arbitrage" right now between token prices and GPU rental rates. This means that the price of tokens goes down (supply up) while the price of GPUs goes up (demand up).
@opencode is one of the top providers of tokens outside of the frontier labs. Let's suppose they're using a GB300 NVL72 and ballpark the price at $5 million.
DeepSeek v4.1 Flash 1017:
• 98% input tokens at effective in of 0.82c per million.
• 2% output tokens at 60c per million.
• Weighted average = 2c per million.
Revenue = 6.77T x 2c / million = $136,000 / day. This would be circa double the $38 / hour that DeepSeek reported.
If the GPU Rack was $5 million then then the payback for "just" the GB300 is 37 days.
Obviously there are other costs but this gives you an idea.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
It’s not unique to DeepSeek at all. OpenRouter has fantastic data on this.
