또람프, 역사적인 중간선거 대패 후 입장 표명 중;
“우리는 바닥에 사용할 대리석을 주문했습니다.
그런데 이 대리석은 정말 특별한 자재입니다. 무려 50년 동안 사람들이 눈독을 들여온 희귀한 채석층에서 나온 것이죠.
심지어 채석장 주인조차 이 대리석만큼은 팔고 싶어 하지 않았습니다.“
뭔 소리임? 선거 대패로 치매 증상이 도진 건가? ㅋㅋㅋ
밴스의 역습이 시작됐다.
JD 밴스 부통령이 공화당의 중간선거 참패 원인을 정면으로 지목했다.
그는 패배의 원인이 투표율이 아니라 2024년 트럼프·밴스에게 투표했던 유권자들이 2026년 민주당으로 돌아선 데 있다고 분석했다.
그 이유로 꼽은 것은 이란 전쟁, 물가, 미국 우선주의 훼손, 이스라엘과의 관계다.
특히 결정적인 한마디.
“우리가 패배한 이유는 전쟁이다.”
트럼프의 전쟁을 사실상 공개적으로 비판한 밴스.
이제 공화당 내부의 책임 공방은 물론, 차기 대권을 둘러싼 트럼프와 밴스의 정치적 거리 두기가 본격화되는 것일까?
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
