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Updated my 10 year $MSTR model for financial entertainment using today's quote.
Assumptions in Base case:
-$BTC CAGR at 25%
-MSTR pinned at 1.15x mNAV
-Preferred demand flat
-Prefs yield 11%
-USD reserve 18 coverage months
10-year Base case output:
BTC: ~$832K (~9.3x | 25% CAGR)
MSTR: ~$1,876 (~10.5x | 26.5% CAGR)
Model updates:
-Added STRK converts, options outstanding, and RSU/PSU unvested to terminal basic share count
Super-Bear, Bear, Bull, and Super-Bull also included below. Critics welcome.
H/T for reviews: @ZynxBTC | @BTCoptioneer
Model URL: docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
In the spirit of @BTCoptioneer's framework, I am sharing my own 10 year $MSTR model for financial entertainment.
Assumptions in Base case:
-$BTC CAGR at 25%
-MSTR pinned at 1.15× mNAV
-Preferred demand flat
-Prefs yield 11%
10-year Base case output:
BTC: ~$853K (~9x | 25% CAGR)
MSTR: ~$2,196 (~12x | 28% CAGR)
Super-Bear, Bear, Bull, and Super-Bull also included below. Critics welcome.
URL: docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
Historically, Nasdaq corrections have often presented attractive forward returns for equities, but Bitcoin's performance has been far more dependent on where it sits in its own market cycle.
Bitcoin doesncashtag_clickly behave like a leveraged Nasdaq during corrections.
The question: Is this another risk-off event for BTC, or an opportunity to catch the beginning of a new bull market?
$BTC $QQQ $SPY
Adam Argo retweeted
Today was $STRC's first daily dividend.
That matters for a couple of reasons:
• Yield tourists lose their edge
• Accrual starts to look like a money market sweep
Q: What about weekend dividends?
A: No business days, no problem.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday dividends continuously accrue and are packaged into a single, triple-sized payout every Monday.
The beginning of a new era in Digital Credit.
Adam Argo retweeted
When you try and change lanes to the faster lane…
Then traffic starts moving faster in the original lane you were in 😂
Adam Argo retweeted
$MSTR just printed a golden cross.
50d 135.64 crossed above the 200d 135.53.
Here's what happened the last 5 times:
Mar 2023: +13% in 3 months, +304% in 1 year
Sep 2020: +84% in 3 months, +313% in 1 year
Sep 2019: -38% in 6 months
Mar 2019: flat, peaked at +8%
Aug 2018: flat, peaked at +6%
2 monster runs. 3 duds.
The difference was Bitcoin. Both big runs came with $BTC trending higher.
This cross is razor thin, 0.11 apart. A few red days and it's gone.
I’m watching $BTC, not just the cross.
Adam Argo retweeted
Stocks were up yesterday because businesses were worth way more yesterday and now they are down today because businesses are worth a lot less today. Don’t worry though. I’ve adjusted my DCF model to represent all this new information and I continue to listen to podcasts about peptides.
Adam Argo retweeted
BREAKING: 75% of active fund managers failed to beat the S&P 500 over the preceding 12-month period, per WSJ
