Deep in geopolitics and national security. American global dominance b/c America isn’t just the greatest nation on Earth, it’s the last, best hope for humanity.
United States
Joined August 2011
- Tweets7.1K
- Following405
- Followers2.7K
- Likes14.2K
TRUMP: WE MIGHT HAVE TO TAKE OUT PICKAXE; WE HAVEN'T BEEN IN A WAR WITH IRAN
Today, during an interview with Fox's Sean Hannity, President Trump said:
"We might have to go after Pickaxe, but that's not a big deal, we can do it in literally, we can do that in one hour."
...
"I mean, what's a war? ... A war is fighting ... when was the last time you saw us fighting with them? We go months and months, we talk. And they're in a not good negotiating position. Their economy is cratering ... They don't have money, they're not paying their soldiers, they're not paying their police. We're not fighting a war ... This isn't a war. This is a very soft war ... We did have a big hit on them, but this isn't like a war that has gone on ... It could happen if they don't make a deal, but they want to make a deal very badly, and there's a good chance we can make a deal. But here's the thing, we're dealing from total strength, we can end it anytime. If I can make a deal, I'd rather do it, save a lot of lives. But think about a war, this isn't a war... This is not much of a war, Sean, because there hasn't been any shooting for months."
WSJ CONFIRMS US STRIKES ON IRAN’S QESHM ISLAND TODAY
Citing anonymous US officials, WSJ confirmed earlier OSINT and Iranian state media reports from today that the US targeted Iran’s Qeshm Island.
🔸 US engaged in smaller-scale strikes against Iran for several weeks.
🔸 Some described the strikes as defensive to prevent Iran from attacking commercial ships in Hormuz.
🔸 US purposefully kept the campaign quiet so as not to signal any intention of resuming major combat operations.
CONTEXT FROM TODAY:
🔹 WH Press Pool: reporter that Trump responded with a “no,” to a question asking if he plans to strike Iran after the elections.
🔹 JD Vance: he and Trump “feel pretty good about the prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement. We’re going to keep on working at it. You never know, of course, the Iranians are always a little unpredictable, and as the President always says he retains kinetic options, he retains nonkinetic options, but we’ve certainly made some progress. We’ll see ir we can make some more.” JD Vance also said that no deadlines have been set.
🔹 Axios: CIA told Trump to keep the no war and no deal posture to force the regime to concessions or to cause an uprising.
🔹 Al Jazeera: US insists the nuclear issues be discussed during the first phase and keeps pressuring for the removal of uranium, but the regime still insists this won't happen.
🔹 Reuters: Iranian sources think US attack more likely than a deal.
…………………………………………
Comment — Keeping it quiet makes sense for oil markets, but I guess what matters is what happens. Whether intentional or unintentional, there's a lot of inconsistent messaging coming out today. We'll know more by tomorrow night or Wednesday morning.
Source –– wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-…
MALEKI TO TRUMP: DON’T STRIKE, DON’T DEAL, JUST KEEP CHOCKING
In an NYP opinion piece, Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki), a sanctions expert with years of Treasury experience, argued against restarting a major military campaign against Iran as it would hand the regime an unearned lifeline. Instead, he argues, Trump should:
🔸 Keep the blockade
🔸 Keep & strengthen sanctions
🔸 Do not enter into premature deals
🔸 Safeguard the people’s connectivity
🔸 Tell Iranians you’ll back their uprisings
🔸 Strike domestic repression apparatus
🔸 Hit direct threats to America & allies
🔸 Don’t strike civilian infrastructure
In wartime, blackouts and economic ruin are framed as patriotic sacrifices policed by the IRGC, but under a ceasefire, they become undeniable regime failures which they cannot fix. To force real concessions, US should let the regime drown in the crises of its own making, which will give the US the true strategic leverage it seeks, and which in will only emerge when the regime fears its own citizens more than American bombs.
………………………………………………
Comment — I agree with most of what Maleki argued for, but not his main point: don’t start a major operation. Yet I’ll even agree to that point too if Trump isn’t going to go all in and is simply going to do a “mini Epic Fury” as he recently stated.
You’ll notice Maleki isn’t against strikes, but believes the strikes should focus on eliminating internal oppression apparatus (propaganda channels, the Basij, law enforcement, IRGC, etc.), but not things like power plants and other infrastructure. But I think both must be done because combined together they will accelerate the regime’s collapse or total capitulation to all of America’s demands:
(A) Targeting internal oppression apparatus (targeted strikes, air cover to protesters, etc.) encourages the people to come out and fight and they’ll know they’re not alone fighting evil, and in fact does raise their chances of succeeding against a highly armed regime. It’ll put the fear of God in them because knowing the people may actually stand a chance causes them to fear the people more than fighting America.
(B) Targeting certain dual-use (no pun intended) civilian infrastructure (strategic roads, bridges, and power plants) will surely hurt ordinary Iranians too, but it will also cut off energy supplies to the oppression apparatus and will disrupt or prevent them from overwhelming gains made by the people in the streets by rapidly reinforcing positions lost. Infrastructure isn’t human life; it can be replaced.
When both (A) and (B) above are applied together, you get unmatched acceleration of either one of these results: (1) regime is toppled by the people; or (2) total regime capitulation to all American terms, which will happen because the regime would rather have this than end up in the hands of the people.
Obviously, it’s better if Trump doesn’t do it at all if he’s not going to finish the job. So if he wants to do strikes, he needs to commit.
Because with or without strikes the collapse of the regime is a real possibility, and because the the collapse of any regime always risks causing chaos, there’s another ingredient missing: identifying and empowering an opposition leader who can keep the country together.
I really liked Malik’s proposal for the safeguarding of communications methods because the regime will definitely try to shut down the internet. There are ways for the US government to keep the connection up and I have written about that too.
Source — nypost.com/2026/10/28/opinio…
TRUMP: WE HAD A WAR WITH IRAN, WE WON ... IT'S NOT A WAR, WE'VE DONE VERY LITTLE FIGHTING."
Trump also added: "We've wiped out their leaders, their first level of leaders, their second level of leaders, and they've asked us 'please stop doing that,' and we will. But it looks like that's coming together very nicely ... and that's why I guess the oil prices dropped so precipitously."
TRUMP: OIL WILL GO DOWN "BECAUSE WE'RE WINNING WITH IRAN, EASILY WINNING."
Trump also stated that Iran wants "to make a deal, and that could happen."
BBC'S RARE ACCESS INSIDE IRAN
🔸 A mother whose 16 year old daughter was killed by the regime during the protests said she had to flee Iran after being threatened by the regime.
🔸 A doctor said the hospitals were overwhelmed by injured protesters between January 8 and 9. He also said on January 8 the wounds were mostly from pallets, but by January 9, almost all of the injuries were from real bullets.
🔸 The war on Iran has left Iranians with mixed feelings, as many of them were cheering the death of Khamenei, but were disappointed since the regime got a stronger grip.
🔸 A Kurdish-Iranian said the regime began taking revenge on the people after the war because they were scared of another uprising.
🔸 Currently, there is no organized, mass-scale protests, but there are acts of resistance on an individual level, such as women not covering their hair, etc.
IRAN: WE CAN BLOCK STARLINK
According to the Iranian regime's Fars News Agency, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme Council of Cyberspace stated that restricting Starlink is not difficult and that Iran can block it. He added that whenever the country decides to shift from a laissez-faire approach to a control approach regarding Starlink, Iran will manage this tool with control technology.
................................................
Comment –– I doubt they can fully block it, but they can sure interfere with it and potentially track down the location of those using Starlink terminals. It would be much harder for them to "block" Starlink if DTC technology was made available inside Iran.
Source –– nitter.gq/FarsNews_Agency/status…
PAHLAVI TEAM TO DEMOCRACIES: INVEST IN DIRECT-TO-CELL TO HELP IRANIAN PEOPLE
The Communications team of Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi shared a Washington Post article and called on democratic nations who want to support the Iranian people to “immediately invest in direct-to-cell technology, fund satellite access to lower costs, and ensure user security against surveillance.”
ℹ️ Direct-to-Cell (DTC) –– Starlink's DTC technology allows standard LTE/5G phones to connect directly to satellites.
🔸 Activating and providing coverage for DTC over a specific region would mean Iranians wouldn't have to go through the risk of smuggling, connecting, and using Starlink terminals, and can just connect directly if they have an LTE/5G capable smartphone.
🔸 Starlink terminals are illegal in Iran. A month ago, Iran's deputy technology minister said the spread of Musk’s satellite network drives the “final nail in the coffin” of Tehran’s ability to control cyberspace. “If this trend continues we will be forced to cut electricity in the next crisis.”
...........................................................
Comment –– While the Washington Post, Iran's opposition, and the rest are just catching up to the importance of DTC, I've literally been advocating for this strategy for over 5 months.
And do you know where I got the idea from? Directly from the US government. Do you know why? As I explained in the below-quoted post in May 2026, due to the regime's draconian shutdown of the internet, the US government was actively working on providing internet access to the Iranian people. That part was highly overlooked when Reuters first broke the story as everyone was focused on the pricing dispute on Starlink's usage on US suicide drones during Epic Fury.
But in the same article, Reuters revealed that there were also pricing disputes between Pentagon and SpaceX on activating DTC over Iran to counter the regime's blackouts. Apparently, SpaceX had proposed fees the Pentagon thought were too high for a humanitarian goal.
But that's not even the craziest part, exactly one hour and fifty-eight minutes after Reuters published its article, the Islamic Republic of Iran began opening up the internet after the longest internet shutdown in history.
At the time, I wrote: "I think what may have happened is that after the Reuters story broke, the regime felt like it had to open the internet so that the Americans do not beat them to it and further humiliate them." I still think that was the reason. The regime opened up the internet because had America done it, America would be the liberator of internet.
Source –– washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
TRUMP ON IRAN: "WE HAVEN'T FINISHED THEM OFF... AT SOME POINT, WE'LL HAVE TO DO THAT"
Today, on the Pod Force One Podcast, Trump discussed Iran:
🔸 Finishing the job: "We've been nice because we haven't finished them off because, you know, they wanted to talk and they keep talking, talking. At some point, we'll have to do that."
🔸 On a deal: "We'll see." The US cannot allow Iran to have nuclear weapons.
🔸 On regime change: "We've knocked out 2 of their regimes, so we've sort of changed it, in a sense. You also have to have somebody to talk to."
🔸 Two camps: (1) people angry that he went into Iran; and (2) "there are also people angry because I didn't completely annihilate them."
🔸 Fighting level: "We're not fighting right now. You know, much of this war we haven't really been fighting. We fought, we hit them very hard a couple of times, then we sat back and watched."
🔸 Situation in Iran: "Right now, they're not paying their military, they're not paying their police. It's failing."
TEHRAN:
🔸 Pezeshkian: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has granted the government "certain authorities" on talks with Washington. Iran will "try to resolve the problem with dialogue."
- He also said: "If the people are with us, even if the enemy assassinates me and thousands like me, they still won't be able to do a damn thing."
🔸 FM spokesman Baghaei: any attack gets a "powerful, immediate and comprehensive response."
- Asked if Iran would ship its 60% enriched uranium to a third country: "No." He added that the opposing side assassinated the issuer of the fatwa prohibiting the production and use of nuclear weapons.
- He also said that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the US lifts its blockade and meets Tehran's demands.
- He further stressed that the US Naval blockade must end before Hormuz can be reopened.
- Moreover, he insisted that Ghalibaf is still in charge of negotiations, but that Rezaei will decide how to respond to the US (presumably JD Vance's) letter.
🔸 Araghchi: In addressing gas shortage, he asked the people to help with savings. He blamed prior imbalances combined with damages from the war for the gas shortage, and demanded that people adhere to the consumption patterns or prices will increase.
- The current proposal on the table is the same Iran put forward before and the same as those from the Islamabad Memorandum (MoU), known as the 7-day plan: The plan outlines Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. It stipulates that if Iran’s conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on the sixth day, and negotiations between Iran and the United States will resume on the seventh day. But new circumstances have emerged since the MoU, such as Clause 9 which aid the US wouldn't impose new sanctions or increae its military forces.
.........................................
Comment — Look, it is simple, the positions taken by the US and Iran are irreconcilable. One or both sides must make concessions, otherwise it's war.
Sources ––
- nitter.gq/isna_farsi/status/2117…
- nitter.gq/isna_farsi/status/2117…
- nitter.gq/EnglishFars/status/211…
- nitter.gq/FarsNews_Agency/status…
- nitter.gq/PressTV/status/2117206…
- nitter.gq/EnglishFars/status/211…
- nitter.gq/isna_farsi/status/2117…
- nitter.gq/TehranTimes79/status/2…
- nitter.gq/TehranTimes79/status/2…
- nitter.gq/FarsNews_Agency/status…
- nitter.gq/FarsNews_Agency/status…
- nitter.gq/TehranTimes79/status/2…
- youtube.com/watch?v=7YLDiUjY…
Araghchi: Consultations Through Qatari and Pakistani Mediators Are Underway
▪️ Al Jazeera interview with the Foreign Minister:
🔻 Our Qatari friends were in Tehran as part of the ongoing consultations involving Qatari and Pakistani mediators.
🔸 The proposal currently on the table is essentially the same one Iran initially put forward, known as Iran’s seven-day plan.
🔻 The plan outlines Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. It stipulates that if Iran’s conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on the sixth day, and negotiations between Iran and the United States will resume on the seventh day.
🔸 One idea proposed by our Qatari friends was to shorten the seven-day period to five days or even less.
🔻 The conditions the United States must meet are nothing extraordinary. They were all included in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.
🔸 However, new circumstances have emerged. For example, Clause 9 of the memorandum stated that the United States would not impose new sanctions or increase its military forces in the region.
EL SALVADOR PATROLS GANG NEIGHBORHOODS IN HAITI — After 4 of its servicemembers were kidnapped, El Salvador has sent over 2,000 military servicemembers to Haiti whose stated objective is to recover the kidnapped.
………………………………………..
Comment — Nayib Bukele isn’t messing around. He’ll keep doing this until he gets all Salvadorans back to safety.
MELANIA TRUMP BROKERS LOCAL CEASEFIRE IN RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED OLESHKY
🔸 The White House says First Lady Melania Trump secured a localized Russia–Ukraine ceasefire in Oleshky, a front-line city across the Dnipro from Kherson.
🔸 Both sides agreed to halt all military action there so humanitarian aid can enter and civilians can evacuate through a designated safe passage. White House start date: Oct 29.
🔸 She acted as "Exclusive Intermediary," using the channel built through six earlier reunifications of 34 Ukrainian children. Demining is part of the deal.
🔸 An estimated 1,700–2,000 residents remain, mostly elderly, plus about 50 children. Pre-war population was roughly 24,000.
🔸 The Kremlin confirmed the truce. Russia's General Staff chief Gerasimov says the ceasefire on that sector starts at 04:00 on Oct 27.
..................................................
Comment — This is something worth keeping an eye on to see if something actually comes out of this.
Source — whitehouse.gov/briefings-sta…
nitter.gq/AP/status/211363234437…
BREAKING: First lady Melania Trump helps broker a ceasefire in Russian-occupied Oleshky for humanitarian aid and evacuations, the White House says. apnews.com/article/russia-uk…
FINAL UPDATE: The First Lady announced the successful completion of the ceasefire and the accomplishment of its humanitarian goals. nitter.gq/flotus/status/21170337…
THE CEASEFIRE CONCLUDES
The mission was a success, delivering critical aid to the region and enabling the evacuation of nearly 800 people.
On behalf of America, I commend Russia and Ukraine for their leadership and cooperation surrounding the Oleshky ceasefire. I hope Oleshky serves as a foundation for lasting peace between both nations.
The ceasefire began on October 27, 2026, and concluded on November 1, 2026, as planned.
WSJ: US PUSHING TO RESTORE RUSSIAN GAS SALES TO EUROPE — VIA UKRAINE
🔸 WSJ exclusive: the US is backing a quick restart of Russian natural-gas sales to Europe through pipelines running across Ukraine, as part of talks on an energy ceasefire before winter.
🔸 Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff broached the idea during trips to Moscow and Kyiv in September.
🔸 The plan: sell Russian gas through a US intermediary to get around European sanctions. People in the talks say it could be lucrative for American investors.
🔸 US negotiators believe gas revenue gives Putin an incentive to agree to an energy truce. The White House proposed Russia put the European gas money into escrow so it isn't used for the war.
🔸 European capitals are resisting. The EU has legislated a phase-out of all Russian gas purchases by the end of 2027.
.........................................
Comment — It would be another thing if Russia gave something in return, but they haven’t.
Source — wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-pus…
nitter.gq/LiveSquawk/status/2117…
#OOTT | US Pushes To Restore Russian Gas Sales To Europe Via Ukraine – WSJ
wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-pus…
IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER MAKES SUICIDAL STATEMENTS
Over the past few days, Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, has publicly taken positions which he cannot back out of without damaging his internal authority:
⭕️ Iran maintaining control over Hormuz.
⭕️ Requiring US to meet Iran’s 7 conditions.
⭕️ Giving all authority to Iran’s Armed Forces in case of another attack.
…………………………………..
Comment — First, the US will never let Iran control Hormuz. Second, the US will never cave to any conditions unless and until the regime makes nuclear and other concessions first. Lastly, the Supreme Leader is essentially publicly giving all authority to the IRGC in case of an attack. Basically, despite the so-called negotiations that are happening, Mojtaba Khanenei (if he’s alive and has decisionmaking capacity) has intentionally or unintentionally placed himself in a position where a deal cannot be made.
Urgent Intel retweeted
Are you fucking kidding me?
REVEALED: British companies are unwittingly funding North Korea’s nuclear programme, a Telegraph investigation can reveal.
Posing as legitimate remote workers, Kim Jong-un’s army of approximately 100,000 operatives sends job applications en masse and uses deceptive tactics to join company payrolls ⤵️
telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2…
RUBIO: Talks between US & Iran have never stopped. Trump always prefers peace and diplomacy, but he also realizes that some issues cannot be fixed peacefully.