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Portfolio Philosophy ⚖️
Mission: Long-term outperform S&P
Target : Companies with Hi growth revenues
COs🔑: Leaders/Execution/Reliability
▪️Max allocation 20 stocks🖖🏻
▪️Buy gradually 🪜
▪️Check 🔬 10-Q & 10-K
▪️ if in doubt 🤨sell
▪️Sell when thesis broken 💔
Ver.02
#fintwit
$IREN Zero Delays - Zero Excuses - only execution that matters !
IREN has built a culture and operating model that prioritizes speed and parallel execution at large scale. That is relatively rare in the data-center/ #AI infrastructure world, where delays of 12–24 months are common.
$IREN: Horizon 1 Testing
I have seen evidence from @FransBakker9812 that H1 has been handed over to $MSFt and undergoing acceptance testing.
For the $IREN investor community, @FransBakker9812 has been pooling together subscriptions funds to purchase satellite pictures, higher tier funds (via invite) for airplane flyover pictures, and has unmatched connections for information.
$IREN AI‑infra valuation math gets wild when you run it forward.
Using today’s ARR baselines and the typical EV/ARR compression as scale kicks in (≈ 6.5× → 6× → 5.5×), the curve looks like this:
2026:
• ARR: $4.3B
• EV: ~$28B
• Implied mcap: $25–32B
• Share price math: ~$70–90
2027:
• EV ramps to $72–90B
• Implied mcap: $70–95B
• Price math: ~$160–230
2028:
• EV pushes $110–140B
• Implied mcap: $105–145B
• Price math: ~$230–350
This assumes moderate dilution, expansion funding, and net‑cash improvement — nothing heroic.
The real swing factors: execution, GPU supply/pricing & capital‑market risk appetite.
I think the market might be asking the wrong question about $IREN
Seeing a lot of “wen” where’s the next contract?” posts.
Maybe I’m missing something, but I’m looking at execution first. Zero excuses - Zero delays.
Microsoft is a 200 MW deployment across 4 phases. As of today, not a single MW is live (if I am correct) and generating Microsoft revenue yet. Horizon 1 is still in commissioning and only the first phase of the infrastructure is substantially built.
So here’s what I’m struggling with.
If you’ve only completed roughly the first 25% of the project, the tenant hasn’t taken occupancy yet, and the first handover hasn’t happened… why I think the market might be asking the wrong question.
Seeing a lot of “where’s the next contract?” posts.
Maybe I’m missing something, but I’m looking at execution first.
Microsoft is a 200 MW deployment across 4 phases. As of today, not a single MW is live and generating Microsoft revenue yet. Horizon 1 is still in commissioning, and only the first phase of the infrastructure is substantially built.
So here’s what I’m struggling with.
If you’ve only completed roughly the first 25% of the project, the tenant hasn’t taken occupancy yet and the first handover hasn’t happened… why would another contract be the thing that validates the story?
At the same time, phased delivery is exactly how hyperscale infrastructure is built. The financing was structured around those milestones, with customer prepayments and dedicated GPU financing helping fund the rollout. That’s part of the picture too.
For me, the next milestone isn’t another announcement , it’s the 1st successful handover and live production. After that, the conversation changes on its own.
Sometimes the market wants the next announcement. Sometimes the business just needs time to catch up.
Until then, I can understand why there is so much excitement and I can also understand why others are abandoning the $IREN .
Interesting how two people can look at the exact same facts and come away with completely different levels of conviction. would another contract be the thing that validates the story?
At the same time, phased delivery is exactly how hyperscale infrastructure is built. The financing was structured around those milestones, with customer prepayments and dedicated GPU financing helping fund the rollout.
That’s part of the picture too.
For me, the next milestone isn’t another announcement, it’s the 1st successful handover and live production.
After that, the conversation changes on its own.
Sometimes the market wants the next announcement.
Sometimes the business just needs time to catch up.
Until then, I can understand why people are excited and I can also understand why others are cautious.
Interesting how two people can look at the exact same facts and come away with completely different levels of conviction.
“Situational Awareness.”
An ironic name, given recent events. 😉
A timely reminder that in investing, situational awareness is more than having a compelling long-term thesis.
It means continuously reading the environment, respecting risk, adapting to changing conditions, managing position sizes, and recognizing when the facts have changed.
Conviction is valuable.
Adaptability is essential.
Risk management is non-negotiable.
Deep $RBRK sleuths / where are you?
I’m hunting for accounts that closely track Rubrik ($RBRK) and deliver real, in-depth analysis , the kind that goes beyond headlines into their data security tech, financials, competitive edge and growth trajectory.
Who’s doing the sharpest work on this one?
Tag them or drop your recommendations below 👇
#RBRK #CyberSecurity #StockAnalysis
I think the market might be asking the wrong question about $IREN
Seeing a lot of “wen” where’s the next contract?” posts.
Maybe I’m missing something, but I’m looking at execution first. Zero excuses - Zero delays.
Microsoft is a 200 MW deployment across 4 phases. As of today, not a single MW is live (if I am correct) and generating Microsoft revenue yet. Horizon 1 is still in commissioning and only the first phase of the infrastructure is substantially built.
So here’s what I’m struggling with.
If you’ve only completed roughly the first 25% of the project, the tenant hasn’t taken occupancy yet, and the first handover hasn’t happened… why I think the market might be asking the wrong question.
Seeing a lot of “where’s the next contract?” posts.
Maybe I’m missing something, but I’m looking at execution first.
Microsoft is a 200 MW deployment across 4 phases. As of today, not a single MW is live and generating Microsoft revenue yet. Horizon 1 is still in commissioning, and only the first phase of the infrastructure is substantially built.
So here’s what I’m struggling with.
If you’ve only completed roughly the first 25% of the project, the tenant hasn’t taken occupancy yet and the first handover hasn’t happened… why would another contract be the thing that validates the story?
At the same time, phased delivery is exactly how hyperscale infrastructure is built. The financing was structured around those milestones, with customer prepayments and dedicated GPU financing helping fund the rollout. That’s part of the picture too.
For me, the next milestone isn’t another announcement , it’s the 1st successful handover and live production. After that, the conversation changes on its own.
Sometimes the market wants the next announcement. Sometimes the business just needs time to catch up.
Until then, I can understand why there is so much excitement and I can also understand why others are abandoning the $IREN .
Interesting how two people can look at the exact same facts and come away with completely different levels of conviction. would another contract be the thing that validates the story?
At the same time, phased delivery is exactly how hyperscale infrastructure is built. The financing was structured around those milestones, with customer prepayments and dedicated GPU financing helping fund the rollout.
That’s part of the picture too.
For me, the next milestone isn’t another announcement, it’s the 1st successful handover and live production.
After that, the conversation changes on its own.
Sometimes the market wants the next announcement.
Sometimes the business just needs time to catch up.
Until then, I can understand why people are excited and I can also understand why others are cautious.
Interesting how two people can look at the exact same facts and come away with completely different levels of conviction.
$IREN ‘s Live Power Grind vs Crusoe $30B Hype
Bloomberg reported July 2 that Crusoe is in talks for a $3B raise at around $30B valuation. Triple what they got after last year’s $1.4B round at over $10B.
Talks are still active, no final terms or close. Company stayed silent. They’ve got real $Meta and OpenAI power contracts, but this is just another inflated #AI infrastructure number until money actually hits the bank.
Crusoe vs IREN: GW showdown
Crusoe (private):
4.9 GW contracted AI capacity. 40+ GW pipeline. Abilene 1.2 GW (parts live for OpenAI/Oracle), Meta 1.6 GW locked, Microsoft 0.9 GW breaking ground. Own power, hyperscale campuses. $30B valuation chatter.
IREN ($IREN):
5 GW secured power. 810 MW DCs already energized. 480 MW AI Cloud + 150k GPUs targeted by end-2026. $3.1B contracted ARR (Microsoft $1.9B deal, NVIDIA $0.7B).
Modular BTC-to-AI play scaling to 1.2 GW+ in 2027.
Everyone keeps asking why $IREN has no big colo deals yet.
Dan could’ve signed easy hyperscaler leases months ago. Instant revenue. Stock pops.
He didn’t.
He’s building the AI factory himself instead of renting out power.
Zero shares sold in 2026.
It’s slower and more painful this way, but that’s how you actually own the upside.
Lack of deals isn’t failure, it’s the signal they’re swinging way bigger.
This isn’t a miner renting space anymore. It’s becoming the compute backbone.
Zoom out. $IREN
🤖 Made with AI
From “beaten up, messy, no-deals” $IREN story which already dried this long weekend.
No announcement needed.
X2 CEOs executing the real long-term thesis: build and own the AI factory instead of renting power to hyperscalers.
Real ownership. Generational upside.
Even @aleabitoreddit will be onboard soon.
The shift is happening right now. $IREN
Also @Agrippa_Inv nail it with his usual pragmatic approach (🙏) - I see the apex way much sooner than anything I can imagine !
Don’t cry for my Argentina !
I hear what you say , but The LT Plan must be executed to the point ! Acquisition of Mirantis and recent Australian plans shows the direction is AI sovereignty
The market saw “18.2m RSUs” and hit sell.
I saw two founders locked into a four-year vesting schedule, with each vested tranche held for another two years — and no new equity grants before FY2031.
That is not a quick payday. It is mgmt tying its upside to the long game.
Then they put $IREN on @warriors in San Francisco , the centre of #AI capital, customers and compute demand. Not the thesis, but a loud statement of intent.
And now RSI is around 30: near the lowest levels of the last three years. That does not guarantee a bottom, but it tells you sentiment is already deeply washed out.
When sentiment flips this fast, my experience says do not panic out. Recheck the facts. If the thesis is intact, stay onboard and add only within your own risk limits.
Power. GPUs. AI revenue. Execution.
One ugly headline does not erase a story that has been building for more years.
😍 for the records grabbed an ITM Leap on $IREN
1/21/28 $135 CALL
NFA DYOR
$IREN #AIInfrastructure
$Iren not gonna lie, I was pissed when I saw the comp package and the GSW jersey deal drop back to back.
felt like the founders were handing themselves a massive bag while the rest of us eat more dilution, then blowing tens of millions on an NBA patch like they’re suddenly a consumer brand.
co-CEO setup, governance questions, zero new mega-deals to show for it… it hit a nerve. saw a lot of 🚩🚩 going up at once. anyone else get that gut punch or was it just me
but ok, zoomed out for a sec.
$MSFT $NVDA $ORCL aren’t building this alone. they need partners who can actually deliver power, GPUs, scale - fast. $IREN isn’t trying to be the flashy consumer name here, they’re going for the serious infra brother in the room. the one that shows up when the big dogs need capacity yesterday.
Few years out, if they execute, this thing has a real shot at being one of the names that actually powers the #AI stack. not another miner playing dress-up. an actual infrastructure player.
right now? messy. frustrating. feels like a gut check every week.
but if the revenue shows up and the contracts land, the Warriors deal and the shinier corporate image stop being the red flag and start being proof you made it - not the reason you bought in.
Doesn’t mean we stop watching dilution and governance. That scrutiny doesn’t go away.
but the setup’s still there if they deliver.
am I coping or is anyone else seeing this too
One thing this year has reinforced for me:
The market does not care how long you have held a stock.
It does not care what price you paid.
And it does not owe anyone breakeven.
Every day, a position has to earn its place in the portfolio.
That does not mean selling just because the share price is weak or sentiment is ugly. It means separating conviction from attachment.
For $IREN, the question is not whether holders have had a frustrating year. They have.
The question is whether the original thesis is still strengthening: AI revenue, credible contracts, power capacity, disciplined capital allocation and execution.
If those keep progressing, the position earns its place. If they do not, no amount of patience or emotional attachment should protect it.
That is the standard I am trying to hold myself to.
$Iren announced today that they achieved NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status on HGX B300 for training workloads
NVIDIA validated their infrastructure performs within reference targets across real-world AI benchmarks, giving enterprises full confidence to run demanding training at scale
This NVIDIA stamp, plus their vertical integration & Preferred Partner status, is a major credibility catalyst
NVIDIA’s Exemplar Cloud program is not just marketing, It’s a standardized validation using real production style benchmarking “recipes” (large-scale pretraining on frontier models, training throughput, networking efficiency, and cluster reliability under sustained load)
Providers must hit NVIDIA’s own reference architecture performance targets across the full suite of tests
This directly addresses the biggest pain point for AI customers: unpredictable performance at scale caused by networking bottlenecks, software tuning issues, or inconsistent cluster behavior
Achieving Exemplar status proves IREN’s HGX B300 cluster delivers predictable, high-performance results that enterprises can trust, not just peak specs in a lab
Why is this strong for IREN?
• IREN is among only a small group of providers to earn this on the latest HGX B300 platform
• It required deep engineering collaboration with NVIDIA across the entire stack (data center design, networking, software, and operations)
• IREN’s vertical integration (they design, build, and operate their own data centers) creates a continuous feedback loop that helps them optimize performance, a real advantage over less integrated competitors
• NVIDIA VP Warren Barkley’s quote in the announcement highlights exactly this: it gives enterprises “confidence to run their most demanding training workloads at scale”
1. Credibility & Trust - Enterprises are cautious about new AI cloud providers. A direct NVIDIA performance validation removes a major objection and makes IREN much easier to win deals with
2. Competitive differentiation - In a crowded field (CoreWeave, Lambda, Crusoe, hyperscalers, etc.), this puts IREN in an elite tier on cutting-edge hardware
3. Accelerates deal flow & utilization - They already have major NVIDIA contracts and Preferred Partner status. This milestone supports faster scaling of their AI Cloud business and higher utilization of their growing GPU fleet (recently expanded toward 10.9k+ GPUs including large B300/GB300 deployments)
4. Validates the entire AI pivot - IREN transitioned from Bitcoin mining to high-margin AI cloud infrastructure. This announcement is concrete proof that their power, cooling, networking (InfiniBand), and operations are production-grade for frontier AI workloads
5. Sentiment & momentum catalyst - Similar Exemplar announcements for other providers have driven strong positive reactions. Combined with IREN’s existing deep NVIDIA relationship (including large contracts and potential investment ties), this reinforces the bullish AI infrastructure narrative
Pro Tip: Invest in stocks with the words power, energy, or data in their company name.
Not financial advice.
Funny thing though — $NOK has none of those words… and somehow has all of them.
$IREN Edge:
Larger power portfolio
NVIDIA DSX flagship and
Lower starting valuation today #IYKYK
More asymmetric long-term optionality if execution catches up.
can deliver multi-baggers in a continued AI tailwind scenario
2026 will be decisive
This space rewards execution speed over promises.
Zero promises, Zero delays !
$LMND – #earnings out of doghouse
Boring stock that underpromises & overdelivers again
🚀 10th straight quarter of accelerating growth
🔥 Revenue +71%, Gross Profit +159%, IFP $1.33B (+32%)
🐶 Pet exploding: $500M+ run-rate, now #4 US carrier
🚗 Car accelerating: 60% YoY, loss ratio down 14pts
💰 Adj. FCF +$17M, raising guidance, path to Q4 EBITDA positive
Bears worry:
• Still unprofitable overall
• High valuation on growth bets
• Execution risk if AI edge fades
Lemonade’s Q1 results are 🔥. So much to share, where do I start?
First, get into the AI mood, click this, + volume ⏫
open.spotify.com/track/20HCH… (by @kidfrancescoli)
🚀10th consecutive quarter of accelerating IFP growth
🔥 Topline at $1.33 Billion (IFP +32%)
🔥 Revenue grew 71% to $258M
🔥 Gross Profit increased 159% to $100M
🔥 3.14M Customers
🔥 Adj. Free Cash Flow $17M
Lemonade Pet exploding!
✅ Surpassed $500M top line early in Q2
✅ #1 most searched pet insurance brand in the U.S.
✅ @lemonade_inc is now the 4th largest pet carrier in the U.S.
✅ AI-powered automation drives record claim handling efficiency (LAE: ~4%)
✅ Our data + tech edge lets us lower prices while boosting profitability
Car picking up speed
✅ Now at 60% YoY growth, $214M IFP
✅ Loss ratio improved to 74% (14 pts better YoY)
✅ Autonomous Car for @Tesla FSD conversion rate 70% higher than standard
And more...
↗️ Raising 2026 top & bottom line guidance
↗️ IFP per employee > $1M (3x improvement in 4 years)
↗️ Positive Adj. EBITDA in Q4
↗️ Investor Day in NYC November 17
$IREN = Zero. Zero. Zero.
Every peer has delay stories.
Quietly, without excuses, @IREN_Ltd has built the most flawless execution track record in the entire data center / #AI infra space.
Watch this receipts thread:
2020–2021: Canal Flats (30MW) → promised energization → delivered exactly on time.
2021–2022: Mackenzie expansions → every single phase energized on or ahead of schedule.
2022–2023: Prince George (50MW) → guided date → hit it to the exact month.
Then they went to Texas and turned Childress into a monster.
2023–2025: Childress 750MW ultimate site
→ Phase after phase, substation after substation, transformers arriving early, 600MW+ energized in ~18 months flat. Management kept saying “on track”… and then quietly over-delivered every single time.
Hashrate ramp (the ultimate proof of execution):
Guided 10 EH/s → hit early → immediately raised to 30 EH/s → smashed early → raised again → 50 EH/s fully installed & operating right on the upgraded 2025 timeline. Not one miss, not one “supply chain issue” excuse.
AI pivot in 2024–2025:
Announced liquid-cooled Horizon 1 (50MW HPC, Childress) mid-2025 → foundations poured, long-lead items secured, second bulk substation transformer energized early specifically for it → November 6 earnings call: “Horizon 1 on schedule for Q4 2025 delivery.” Still zero slippage three weeks later.
Sweetwater 1.4GW (West Texas): originally targeting Oct 2026 → management straight-up accelerated it to April 2026 because… well, that’s just what they do.
Horizon 2 (another 50MW liquid-cooled) already breaking ground behind it.
Every peer has at least one public delay story since 2022.
$IREN has zero. Zero.
This isn’t normal. This is under-promise, over-deliver on steroids. They guide conservatively, then execute so precisely it looks easy.
In a sector drowning in excuses, $IREN just silently ships.
That’s why the believers keep getting louder. 🔥
