Vikram Bisht

Prairie harvest is running well behind schedule after a wet September, with Saskatchewan only about a third complete and Alberta closer to a quarter—far behind five-year averages. Canola, spring wheat, and later cereals are still in the field in many areas, and quality risk is rising as sprouting, disease, and tough grain show up. Official yield models still point to a smaller wheat crop than last year’s bumper harvest, near-record canola output on the largest acreage on record, and a record corn crop, with soybeans also up. Pulses look smaller.On the livestock side, Canada’s cattle herd is rebuilding at its fastest pace in two decades, with July inventories up more than 3% and more cows and heifers being held back. Hogs are slightly higher as well. Fed cattle prices have eased from mid-year records, but the longer-term herd expansion is intact heading into fall.

Canada’s farm sector is a major export engine built around large Prairie grain and oilseed operations, mixed farms in Ontario and Quebec, and specialized horticulture on the coasts. The 2021 census counted about 190,000 farms on 154 million acres. Primary agriculture generates roughly $32 billion in GDP; farm cash receipts were $91 billion in 2024. Wheat and canola dominate field crops—about 25 million and a record 23 million acres in 2026—alongside barley, corn, soybeans, lentils, and peas. Horticulture adds potatoes (led by Alberta, Manitoba, and P.E.I.), field vegetables, fruit, greenhouse tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers, plus Quebec maple syrup and Prairie honey. Livestock is equally important. Canada held about 12.1 million cattle, 14 million hogs, and 1 million sheep in mid-2026, with dairy, chicken, turkey, and eggs produced under supply management. Cattle receipts have been especially strong as the herd begins to rebuild; Ontario and Quebec lead dairy and poultry, while Alberta dominates beef and the Prairies produce most pork. The sector is highly mechanized, weather-sensitive, and tightly tied to U.S. and Asian markets.

Prairie harvest update — Sept. 22 The crop is still out there. Saskatchewan is only about a third of the way done. Alberta isn’t much further. Manitoba’s ahead, but the Prairies as a whole are weeks behind. Rain hit at the worst time. Frost didn’t help. What’s still standing is taking a hit to quality. Diesel is expensive. Combines are thirsty. Drying grain costs more when the field never quite dries out. Canola prices have some bounce. India talks look a bit better. The rest of the trade file is still messy. Farmers don’t need a pep talk. They need a stretch of dry weather and a clear run at the bin. That’s the day.