wangr

Market Making is often misunderstood, in #crypto but also #predictionmarkets like #polymarket. But it's actually quite simple and even fits more naturally with prediction markets. We make a guess and we place our "bets" a little below that guess and earn the difference.

X and now also reddit unfortunately are full of "I found wallet X and reverse engineered their strategy which is ...." (note, the post in the video is not one of these, that one is just the first post I came across and it was actually just an interesting position). It's mostly bullshit. I think most of you can see that but it's hard to prove, well not hard, but a lot of work. In part that's why I made the strategy analyzer. In another part is to actually find interesting and inspiring traders and see what they do without spending hours on it. This goes through every single stamp on chain, all positions, all trades and individually analyzes (GPT 5.4) each trade, position any trader has made, 25 specialized agents with a lot of tools and a lot of data. I'll try to post an analysis here once every other day. If you have requests, let me know.

youtube.com/watch?v=GifmHnm1… Live next word prediction with search for polymarket mentions

Google dips have had the highest volatility of all markets with at least 1M $ in volume on Polymarket today, pretty wild volatility wangr.com/polymarket/opportu…

Shorts are taking profits again

So this trader: 0xa5b0edf6b55128e0ddae8e51ac538c3188401d41 has held on to 70k ETH since the beginng of the year. I see posts on CT marking him a genius. For this one position. And today I noticed scalping, so I got curious. Closed at a loss of half his account or so just before Garrett got liquidated. Deposited a few million more and reopened more ETH at 2700 only to close again at a loss 2190, started opening again at ~1830, average entry was still around 2500 at the time. Closed around half of it again at 2100, still at a loss. Reopened between 2000 and 2025. Closed most at a loss at 2020 to 1963. Reopened again at 1919. Finally closes at a profit for the very first time! February 14th happy valentines! Price 2100, entry now very slightly below it (~2049). Opened more one final time Feb 16 at 1955 and didn't touch since then Until today closed at a handsome profit at 2350-2360 reopened but not full size at 2298 - 2300 March 17th I want to point out, I don't think he's automated, some market orders, otherwise limit orders but perfectly round numbers usually unless panicking and close to liquidation. Deposited a few times to save their ass Fun to watch, either way I'm rooting for them, even if they're not the top position anymore (for now) wangr.com/watch/0xa5b0edf6b5…

Ethereum Whales that were short and haven't closed have given back almost all their profit. All new short whale positions are negative, collective pnl: - 17 Million! wangr.com/whalewatch/eth

Learning from good traders on Polymarket is good. Going after them and copy trade because you see some post on X is risky at best. People want you to copy trade the high volume traders because they get paid on volume you trade

Longs and Shorts are almost entirely equal on all sides now, UPnL, liquidation distance, leverage. The Long to Short Ratio is slowly going up. A few days ago I posted how for the first time in nearly half a year, Long whales were collectively in profit. Well now, they are actually equally in profit to the Short Whales. Not only that, the liquidation distances have levelled out too, a lot of whales that went long this time can not get liquidated (still have enough regards that go 40x full account though, so, there is that). I personally think, if Oil doesn't go through the roof, which is a fair possibility, we might have a bit of a relief coming up. What are your thoughts?

I found another interesting wallet today looking through: wangr.com/polymarket/updown/… the up or down intel dashboard This trader deposited just $1.1k in January 2025 last year and started out trading pretty carefully. They made a few wins, and then took out that initial deposit immediately and traded with the profits. They then withdrawn more and redeposited almost immediately. They weren’t hyperactive at first, and honestly, it almost looked like they might’ve been market making or farming rebates for a while because they earned a lot of them. They made a total of 1200 trades (give or take) The biggest win is almost their last trade. Solana Up or Down, bought at $0.01, turned into $12k profit. Basically a 100x. Bitcoin Up or Down, bought at $0.56, made $4.2k profit. Around 1.5x. They had a few more like these between 1-1.5x but most are tiny ROI. They made lots of smaller “safer” bets. Personally, I’m not even sure I’d call those low risk, as you could see with that one big win, at 1 cent it can also go the other way, and they bot lots of “sure” calls at 99 cents. Still, this wallet ended up as one of the highest-ROI traders in Polymarket Up or Down markets so far to date. And then they just quit crypto a few days after that big win. No more up or down. Still trades, but completely different markets, AI Models, Oil, etc. So, what do you think happened? Did he do what most of us promise to but never are able to? Stop at that big win or number? Full profile: wangr.com/polymarket/updown/…

Been working on these charts for wangr, let's you see the pnl for every trader by time and volume, it's clearly visible for example that we had some scalpers in the sharp dump and pump, more updates soon

A lot of large oil positions now, mostly whales shorting, seems fairly risky to me given the situation. Largest Whale has liquidation at 140$, 25 Million short. wangr.com/whalewatch/tradfi/…

There is actually a lot of alpha in the most basics of statistics on #polymarket , it becomes apparent too that many of the largest bots (by total pnl but not %roi) use these, you'll lose if you copy trade but you can come up with lots of your own strategies wangr.com/polymarket/updown/… I put all the data of every up or down market ever online

I categorized all active hyperliquid traders by positions and this is the hyperliquid universe of traders

It really seems like Microstrategy always buys the top

Yesterday, within 10 minutes, as many longs were liquidated as shorts in the last 7 days, total.

Caught an unintended arbitrage when showcasing how to set limit orders in the #polymarket up or down paper trading terminal

Got inspired reading a cool post about visualizing bitcoin returns with momentum to reveal cycles, added it to wangr

Hi everyone, We chatted about testing strategies a lot, and since the Wangr Polymarket UI has been quite popular, I built a paper trading terminal. This means you can test strategies, your own skills, with data and the better UI without risk. The Terminal lets you set your own account balance. You can buy market orders, and they’re simulated through the actual order book. You even see a better, more detailed breakdown of how your orders might fill. On Polymarket you just see an average; on this terminal you’ll see exactly how much you bought at which level when you place a market order. You have context of the order books, the trades and also the actual distributions of returns from the past 1000 candles to get a good educated guess on how likely a move might is and see if the market might be mis-pricing the odds. The chart data has Hyperliquid, Binance, Coinbase, and Bybit currently, all overlaying one another. It also shows the order book and updates the distributions live. The intel page can show you the historical distributions of the fill probabilities for any up or down market in the past 2.5 months. Full order book data, broken down, viewable. Use any of the models or other tools and ask AI. More to come soon, agent update next with integrated bots. Enjoy: wangr.com/polymarket/updown/…

This wallet blew it's 500k account in 6 minutes getting liquidated on a 2 million crude oil short just now.