🎙️ Episode 6 - "90 Million Lives" has been released This episode looks at the uncertain ceasefire in the war & discusses how the primary criteria for judging political issues should be their impact on the lives of ordinary Iranians. Listen when you have a chance!

The idea that more intense kinetic escalation will lead to a clean, quick outcome where Iran surrenders (before or after the midterms) is foolish. This has been tried multiple times & each time results in a *more* aggressive Iran that lashes out with less restraint. Is there extreme pain for the Iranian people & lasting damage to the country? Yes. Does it result in the Islamic Republic backing down? Not at all. They don't care. And the less they have to lose, the more extreme they get. The reason Iran has restrained from extensive strikes on vital regional infrastructure is because it is worried of mutual assured destruction & its own infrastructure getting hit. If you're going to hit power plants and dams anyway then that restraint goes away. With every step, Netanyahu & his sadistic zealots at the FDD have lied to Trump that "just one more step" will lead to the end of Iran problem. This started with assassinations of individuals, small military campaigns, more extreme sanctions, and eventually a 12 day war & a 7 month war. Yet neither killing Khamenei nor hitting Fordow made the problem go away. There was always magically more work to be done. And additional, more extreme strikes needed. In response to these actions Iran went from symbolic, coordinated strikes to shooting medium range ballistic missiles in Israeli cities to eventually the destruction of multiple US bases, actually closing the Strait of Hormuz, and even hitting Ras Laffan gas fields (something with global repercussions). History shows that: - Yes Israel & the US will be able to get some tactical achievements - They will not be able to get a strategic victory and the conflict will continue - Iran will react with a massive escalation that was previously considered too extreme - There will not be a quick ending - The US will eventually try to calm things down because the escalations are getting too uncomfortable and things go into a period of relative calm until the cycle is repeated again. Typically during the periods of relative calm between escalations the US is able to do more sustained damage through economic pressure & the Iranian response is relatively restrained. But the kinetic escalations always lead to unexpected extreme results. It's very stupid and very risky & any other US president but Trump would not continue to listen to the insane fanatics pushing him that way for yet another round.

The US doing a major military escalation against Iran with just 13 days left until the midterms has massive risks for Trump. No, this is not related to the economic impact of disrupting oil or anything like that. There's a much more Carter-esque possibility here. What the US is talking about is a "short, intense campaign" against Iranian infrastructure & likely nuclear facilities. On more than one occasion in April, Iranian air defenses shot down manned US aircraft. This was after weeks of intense bombardment of air defenses to the point that they were deemed largely gone. Ever since July, Iran has rapidly been upgrading & rebuilding its air defenses. They are almost certainly stronger than they were back in April in the midst of the heaviest period of joint US-Israeli bombardment. While it is possible to shoot down a plane at any point, the most likely time would be when Iranian air defenses are most intact & there are the highest number of targets in the air. In this case, the beginning of a new escalation. There is a significant, non trivial chance a manned aircraft will be shot down. Again, this isn't some questionable Iranian boast, it happened earlier in the war. Last time US special forces found the pilot and successfully took him out. It was no small feat, but there is no doubt there was some luck involved. It's far from guaranteed the same outcome would happen if this happened again. A mass attack right before the midterms is rolling the dice that you get a scenario where an American pilot is captured by Iranian and paraded in front of cameras for the world to see. Imagine the impact of such an event just a few days before the midterms. As a part of an already unpopular war. When everyone would be able to connect it to Trump's decision making. It would be something for the history books. Does he really want to risk even a 10 or 20 percent chance of this happening? Any wise person would say no. Unfortunately I've lost all faith the Trump administration makes decisions in their own interests, so we can't be certain. To be clear, any escalation and resumption of active conflict would be stupid & risky. But doing so before November 3rd has particular risks for the president and would have a downside that would make him look back fondly to the days he had a 32% approval rating.

Guess who was advocating for this in 2011 and got rejected by his boss

Quite to the contrary, it's a flashing red signal that there's about to be a major escalation

Shoja is the one player that makes me move towards becoming a Team Melli hater. Come on man have some respect, it's not like you're the first person fans chant against, that doesn't justify your behavior ...

If they intercepted the drone then how were the people hurt? This is like those "falling debris" stories

What a fantastic person

A Nathan Shoop style billboard of Trump being imprisoned in Tajrish Square

It's funny how everyone is outraged at platforming Allahyari (he is a genuinely bizarre character though he sometimes makes me laugh) & not that Daniel Haqiqatjou defends slavery & doesn't believe women have a place in modern society. You don't have to pick a side. And Haqiqatjou having some political overlap with you doesn't make his theological views less abhorrent. The danger of red pill misogyny (which don't be fooled, is a very 21st century ideology) mixed with religious language is just as much as Masoud Rajavi mixing Marxism with Islam to make Mojahedeen. Be careful where your theological diet comes from

I was fooled by the video for this one until I saw Matt's post. Don't believe everything you see on Telegram & don't just reflexively copy paste what you see there and repost

Is there single person in the audience other than the protester who is under 600 years old?