Willis Cap

People are losing the attention span to even watch 30 minute TV shows as short form video eats the world.

Satya Nadella reveals his coding agent pulls every hyperscaler and neoclouds' SEC filings into a dashboard that refreshes every day for real-time ROIC "And this is the other aspect of it, which is the enterprise context combined with the world's context. In fact, I go to the SEC filings of every cloud provider, hyperscaler, each of these neoclouds. It's in real time." "I have a data runner in Fabric that brings all that data, puts it into a semantic model that then gets read by my coding agent and then surfaces it as a dashboard. And every day it's fresh." "So I have the entirety of every SEC filing that goes out there, plus all of my internal analysis constantly coming together, giving me real-time ROIC by layer."

I find it wildly under-discussed that the greatest founder of this generation has seemingly no interest in holding equity in his own company. that has to tell you something about the nature of markets

This is why $TDG is such a good long here.

Some news. Today, for the first time in Opendoor's history, we bought back our own stock. Our share count is down 5%. We paid for this buyback with money borrowed at a 0% coupon and we still have hundreds of millions of dollars left to grow faster. There are plenty of helpful details, along with a lot of legalese, in our press release and 8-K (linked below). But there are a few things I want to say directly and in plain English. First, I *despise* dilution. On my first earnings call at Opendoor, I told you that if we issue a share, it has only one job: to make every other share worth more for our existing shareholders, not to extend runway for management. The flip side is just as simple: when our own stock is one of the best uses of capital, we should buy it back. Today, we did just that - by 5%. Second, I run a publicly traded company. I don’t get to have feelings about the macro or the way Wall Street works. My job is to understand the rules of the game and use them to find an edge and build a better company. One of those realities is that our stock price has lots of volatility. People disagree - A LOT - about what Opendoor could be worth one day. Some think we're worth less. Some think we're worth dramatically more. I obviously have a view… That disagreement isn’t just noise - it has economic value that Wall Street monetizes every single day. Most companies would treat this as a headache, but we see it as an asset. If people are going to speculate about our future, I'd rather our shareholders get paid than anyone else. So instead of complaining about volatility, we used those dynamics to borrow $650M at a 0% coupon. Then we turned around and used part of those proceeds to buy back our own stock. At today's prices, buying back our stock and call options was one of the best trades on the board. The rest stays on our balance sheet so we can buy more homes and grow faster. As for dilution, we bought our stock where we thought it was cheap and pushed any future dilution far above today’s price. Not one net new Opendoor share will exist below $10.38. And if we buy back stock in the future, that floor goes higher. But why raise now? Because the best time to raise capital is when you don’t need it. We’ve proven the business can reach ANI profitability, but profitability is just the starting point, not the finish line. And waiting could make the shares we are buying back today more expensive, and homes we could be buying don’t get bought. I’d rather move now. Some people will call what we did today aggressive. They’re right. But being aggressive is how we fixed a company that spent years being careful. I’d make that trade again. To our shareholders: You trusted us with your capital. Today, for the first time, Opendoor used its own capital to buy more of itself. The company is putting its money where its mouth is. Tomorrow, I will too. After our lawyers allow, I’m personally buying $100K worth of shares. I'm all in, and I plan to keep buying.

We welcome Meta’s release of Muse Glimmer, another win for American innovation. Sustaining U.S. leadership in AI means advancing both open- and closed-weight models, ensuring the future is built on trusted foundations.

Absolute gold on the $FRPH earnings call. Always great to see an actual investor, not just sell-side analysts, asking questions on earnings calls.

I just spoke with a founder who is buying several factories. The first thing he wants to do is rip out Salesforce, Oracle and SAP, for which they’re paying a combined $1m per month. If you have experience with this please DM!

New blog post on what would be true about the world if trendline continues and leading lab hits $1T in revenue by the end of next year. In other words, why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years dwarkesh.com/p/why-compute-m…

Risk/reward seems attractive again. Lots of cheap stocks with durable competitive advantages that are going to crush numbers for the next 6-12 quarters. Time will tell!