@yieldsearcher

Fixed income background. Sharing thoughts on macro and global affairs (mostly for my own memo). Not a flow guy; NO investment/trading/financial advice.

 New York, NY
Joined June 2009
  • Tweets30.1K
  • Following2.2K
  • Followers25.1K
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Confession: There was absolutely no thought process behind naming my acct Mr. VIX. This is a generalist macro commentary/entertainment account, and the name is not intended to portray any expertise in the subject whatsoever. But the name kinda stuck, so no plan on changing it.
Rattofix@KyotrixITALYFeb 4
Replying to @yieldsearcher
Hi @yieldsearcher , I've been following you for a short time, but do you ever analyze the VIX?
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Not a bad way to end the simulation
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Karl Marx may not have been wrong, but early.
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Talked to a friend in the equity world that many EM equity managers are grossly underperforming the benchmark because few folks in that field were tech savvy enuf to be overexposed to Taiwan and Korea. Being forced to chase crowding them out of the idiosyncratic bets elsewhere.
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Never have I felt my analysis more irrelevant than now, yet it sure is the most dramatic, fatiguing, and at the same time exciting time in the market.
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If below is indeed the deal that both sides are signing up on, that would be a major positive and a victory for the US. We shall see. Suffice to say I remain clueless on what the deal entails.
FinancialJuice
@financialjuiceMay 29
Trump outlines conditions for Iran blockade to be lifted
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If I am learning one thing dearly over this war, it is that oil is the better geopolitical instrument than gold. Seeing gold up near $100 on a de-escalatory headline…😅
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The past three months, industrial production rose +1% cumulatively. While wholesale inventories and retail inventories have risen 3% and 2% respectively. Lot of inventory buildups waiting for the end market demand to materialize.
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Another sign of a solid manufacturing recovery. A reminder this is 10% of the economy (20% if you include logistics and trade).
zerohedge
@zerohedgeMay 29
Chicago PMI 62.7, Exp. 50.3
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Figured if anyone benefits from high oil px, it would be Canada.
zerohedge
@zerohedgeMay 29
CANADA ECONOMY SHRINKS 0.1% SAAR IN 1Q, MISSES +1.5% EST.
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Dollar squeeze continues despite WTI at $87
David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage.
@PolarityRadioMay 29
This won’t help beyond a local time frame
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At 20-25%, that equates to $250-300b interest paid by consumers every yr.
First Squawk
@FirstSquawkMay 29
Americans Are Falling Behind on Their $1.25 Trillion Credit-Card Bill-WSJ
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The smell of napalm is thick this morning.
First Squawk
@FirstSquawkMay 29
GERMAN CPI (MOM) (MAY) ACTUAL: -0.2% VS 0.6% PREVIOUS; EST 0.1%
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There is a world where both commodity producers’ view of extended supply disruption and the market’s view of disinflationary oil px can both be right. The issue is, none of us wants to entertain that possibility.
Lisa Abramowicz
@lisaabramowicz1May 29
Chevron's Mike Wirth said we're weeks away from oil shortages. He sees US gasoline prices potentially rising considerably in the next two months. Listening to market strategists and then talking to commodity producers is an exercise in cognitive dissonance. @ferrotv @annmarie
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Lenders balking at high 9s to refi a 50% LTV loan of a software company. Market does not believe this is a 50% LTV loan.
Wall Street Rollup
@WallStRollupMay 29
Thoma Bravo's $2.5B refinancing of Sophos, a software borrower, is facing hesitation from lenders given AI worries. The Sponsor has $2.3B of equity invested. Even with a steep increase in rate to S+600, creditors are passing on the A&E. The loan is due in March 2027. (BBG)
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Mr. VIX retweeted
jck✨
@Alea_May 29
🛑 OIL DUBAI PHYSICAL PREMIUM JUMPS TO ~$20.00 (highest since early April)
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We've drained more than 12% of the SPR in 2 months; once you factor in the geological limitations of storage in the salt domes, you realize we've used up much more than 12% of the useable/extractable remaining volume:
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Cushing draining fast, quickly approaching tank bottoms; we've been using reserves and stockpiles w/in supply chains to counter the shortages from the Iran war, but we're running out of options and will start to feel the effects in more pronounced ways if this goes much longer...
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Is Eric Cartman running the WH tweets? The trolling is simply masterclass.
The White House
@WhiteHouseMay 28
They walk among us. ALIENS.GOV
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