https://xitter.cf/t.co/h87EBoYlPn
Joined January 2019
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E retweeted
at spacex ipo everyone was posting their cursor bag fumble.
kid stuff.
my turn.
i estimate this was a $500m bag fumble lol. and very probably wouldve been on claude code early (bc i've been a typescript cli maintainer). fml.
will you buy $ANT stock at a $2T valuation?
14%Yes, significant % of NW
23%Yes, "average" investment
39%No, its for retail chumps
25%Undecided/Maybe
3,551 votes • 6 days E retweeted
wrote about AI AS THE INFINITE WORK MACHINE, creating a world where we're all just constantly deploying agents to fight against everyone else's agents, running constantly to end up in the same place:
bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
E retweeted
quite simply a mentality monster. doesn’t cry, doesn’t complain, just stands up proud bc he knows he will be back again. kylian mbappé, the player you are
E retweeted
Fué vestido de Claude 😭😭😭
🚨🚨 LAMINE YAMAL 🇪🇸 EST BIEN ARRIVÉ À LA CÉRÉMONIE DU #BALLONDOR !!!! 🌸
Premier sacre pour lui ce soir ?
E retweeted
I think it's only moderately embarrassing for Zitron that he got this stuff wildly wrong. It's valuable to have someone making the bear case! But it's extremely frustrating that he hasn't admitted this was completely incorrect and explained where he thinks he went wrong.
Some entertaining highlights from wheresyoured.at/wheres-the-m… 20 months ago:
- "Anthropic has projected (made up) that it will make at least $12 billion in revenue in 2027"
- "This company is not worth $60 billion. Anthropic has raised $14.7 billion to create an also-ran Large Language Model company"
- "Anthropic, much like OpenAI, has categorically failed to productize its Large Language Model"
- "Its CEO is also a sleazy conman who, like Sam Altman, continually promises that his company's AI systems will become powerful and autonomous in a way that they have never shown any possibility of becoming."
- "Any investor in Anthropic needs to seriously consider what it is they're investing in. Its products are both unpopular and commoditized, and it lost $5.6 billion last year! Stop dancing around this fact! Stop it!"
- "there’s a lot of demand to put AI in stuff and some demand to buy stuff with AI on it by enterprises buying software, but little evidence to suggest significant user adoption or usage, I’d argue because Large Language Models do not lend themselves to features that provide meaningful business returns."
- "When a company uses the term “agent,” they are intentionally trying to be deceitful, because the term “agent” means “autonomous AI that does stuff without you touching it.” The problem with this definition is that everybody has used it to refer to “a chatbot that can do some things while connected to a database,” which is otherwise known as a chatbot."
- "It isn’t working. The users aren’t there. The revenue isn’t there. The best time to stop this was two years ago, and the next best time is as soon as humanly possible. I have said that generative AI is a group delusion in the past, and I repeat that claim today."
- "we are approaching the limit of what the transformer-based architecture can do, if we haven’t already reached it. No amount of beating off about test-time compute and connecting Large Language Models to other Large Language Models is going to create a new use case for this technology"
- "generative AI is OpenAI. The consumer adoption of this software has completely failed, and appears to be going nowhere fast. ChatGPT is sustained entirely on deranged, specious hype drummed up by a media industry"
... and my favorite ...
- "I will keep writing this stuff until I’m proven wrong."
E retweeted
Anthropic files for IPO. But who is poised to get the 💰? My usual breakdown below 👇
Investors will be sharing nearly $1 TRILLION of proceeds on ~$142b invested. A ~6.5x blended multiple on a huge amount of capital, in just 5 years. 🤯
Note: all those numbers assume a $1.5 trillion IPO valuation.
So let’s dive in 🔎
1) The craziest fact: no VC in the Series A or Series B 🤯
The $124m Series A in May-21 was led by Jaan Tallinn (Skype’s co-founder), with Dustin Moskovitz and Eric Schmidt. It is likely to return ~345x the original capital, or ~$43b to those early angels. Mind-boggling.
The $982m Series B in 2022 was led by... SBF and FTX: it will return ~79x the capital invested. FTX’s $500m would be worth ~$39b today.
Plot twist: the estate sold it for ~$1.3b in 2024, in one of the worst trades ever.
2) The first VCs in: Spark and Menlo are killing it 🏆
Spark will make over $10b from its Anthropic investments.
They first came into the 2023 Series C and are making ~79x their investment in that round. They followed in every single round since, investing $777m in total, now worth ~$11b.
Menlo led the Jan-24 Series D and will make ~30x its money on that round. And finally, Lightspeed’s Series E lead will make ~16x in 18 months.
3) The real winners in $ terms: the strategics 💰
Amazon put a grand total of ~$18b in, mostly via convertible notes converting at ~$2 a share, against $58.90 for the Series H investors.
That gives Amazon ~21% of the company, worth ~$310b. That’s ~17x its investment. 💵
Google is not that far behind: its notes and the $10b it put in this April alone will be worth ~$83b.
And that’s before the compute: Anthropic has committed $110b+ to AWS and $111b to Google Cloud. They are both investors and suppliers, so they win twice.
4) Founders and team: incredible outcome, and giving most of it away 🙏
The seven co-founders hold ~240m shares each. That’s ~$21b per person, or ~$150b combined. 👏
And each of them has pledged 80% of it to philanthropy. So ~$120b will be going to good causes. On top of that, Anthropic put 5% of the company (~$75b) into its own Public Benefit Fund.
And the IPO will mint a huge number of UHNW in the team: they will share ~$355b worth of shares, options and RSUs. Perhaps the biggest and fastest employee wealth creation event in history.
Congrats to Dario, Daniela and everyone involved. Legendary. 👏
E retweeted
Ballon d’Or ceremony today, but I’m casually remembering a young man who won the treble, scored 52 goals in all comps, broke the Premier League’s Goal scoring record in his debut season,won the UCL Golden Boot & the PFA best player only to lose the Ballon d’Or to the media’s favourite.
Messi, I will never forgive you for this robbery.
E retweeted
My quick takeaways on the Anthropic S-1:
1. This is a historical moment
2. $6.6M in revenue per employee!! Hard to even comprehend how good that is but Anthropic is AI native as it gets so makes sense.
3. I always thought OpenAI would drop their S-1 first
4. Customers spend about 9x more after a year. Net Revenue Retention is approximately 900% as of Sep 30, 2026. Good SaaS companies brag about 120%.
5. Cowork is growing faster than Claude Code did. Goes to show you the demand for consumer products. Duo will probably rip.
6. 3 years ago this company did $41M in revenue. In the first six months of 2026, it did $16.3 billion. I don't think anyone has a mental model for that curve yet, I sure don’t.
7. Nearly half of revenue comes through cloud marketplaces. About 48% comes from customers buying through them. Big companies buy where their budget already lives, and the lesson for founders selling to enterprises is to get listed where your buyers already spend.
8. Their run rate formula is published: the last 28 days of usage times 13, plus subscriptions times 12, which i guess is the new ARR math for founders?
9. It looks like They're merging Cowork into Claude dot au which tells you the chat box era is ending and the "go do the work for me" era is here.
10. Thousands of Anthropic employees are about to become liquid at once, so expect the biggest wave of new AI startups and angel checks San Francisco has ever seen. Reminds me when Facebook went public but this is way bigger.
Let’s go!
11. Buried in the filing, Anthropic says the gap between what Claude can do and how widely it's used is one of its biggest growth opportunities, so the company itself is telling you the models are ahead of the market and someone has to close that gap for dentists, landlords, and plumbers.
12. Whatever happens, exciting times to be building in AI.
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec
Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
E retweeted
*whispering* the industrial design team was absolutely correct
E retweeted
Earnest take: I think it’s probably not healthy for the practice of democratic self-government that so many people have developed strong rooting interests in elections in countries they don’t live in.
