Alpha FX Capital

XAUUSD . THINK GOLD IS GOING HIGHER? READ THIS BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE ⏳🚨 So last week was completely designed to trap buyers at higher levels, and we clearly saw that play out from Wednesday to Friday. During that period, anyone who was buying above $4800 and expecting a strong upside move kept getting trapped again and again till the NYC session on Friday. Because of this repeated trapping, most traders ended up cutting their buying positions, and some even shifted their bias toward selling. At the same time, there were traders who were planning fresh buys, but the market played a very smart game. On Friday during the NYC session, we saw a sudden strong upside move. This move trapped not only the sellers who had entered from Wednesday, but also created regret among those who had already exited their buy positions. Out of emotion and FOMO, many traders jumped back into buying at higher levels on Friday. But by the end of the day, they were trapped again. Even now, many traders are still holding their long positions with hope because the market closed above $4800. So the big question is — will buyers win or lose? And what will be the market psychology for the upcoming week? Let’s break it down. Looking at last Monday’s move, many traders are already sitting with a bullish bias for this week. They believe that Monday will again show a similar upside move like last week. This expectation comes from the tendency of traders to assume that the previous week’s opening behavior will repeat. But in my view, this expectation will fail, and buyers are likely to get trapped badly. I am expecting a flat to gap-down opening on Monday — mainly to fool traders. As I mentioned earlier, last Monday saw strong buying in the Asian session, and keeping that in mind, many traders will try to buy again near the $4800 zone on Monday. They will consider it a retracement, assuming that Friday’s upside move was a valid bullish continuation. However, in reality, that Friday move was mainly a stop-loss hunt of the sellers from Wednesday to Friday. It was not driven by strong institutional buying. The real smart money activity came near market closing, where selling pressure entered — which is clearly visible in the price action. At higher levels, where buyers entered out of FOMO, smart money used that liquidity to reverse the market and trap them. Even now, traders are holding onto hope, and those who missed buying earlier will look to enter on dips, thinking it’s a retracement. But this will be the first trap of the week. So overall, I will wait for some buying activity on Monday. Once retail traders build positions, I will look for selling opportunities to trap them. My target will be the low formed during the Asian session. Last week, the market saw heavy buying between $4770–4810, and this zone was strongly held. But once this area breaks down this week, I expect strong selling pressure. I am also expecting a breakdown of $4700. On the chart, the blue arc zone shows heavy liquidity-based buying where many swing buyers are still active. This liquidity needs to be taken out. Another key level is $4700 — the exact point from where the market gave continuation after a retracement last Monday. As I mentioned earlier, whenever a strong move is followed by a retracement near a round number, most traders see it as an easy buying setup. But the market never gives easy money to retail traders. So I expect this level to break as well. Overall, my plan for the week is bearish. As long as the market stays below $4880, my bias remains strongly toward selling. The $4820–4880 zone is a strong institutional selling area, which I had already highlighted in the first week of April. In my view, smart money became active there on Friday and has already built positions. This is clearly visible in the price action — the sharp selling and strong volume across timeframes confirm it. Also, most stop losses are placed on the downside, which makes a direct recovery unlikely. As I said, if buying happens on Monday based on last week’s behavior, many retail traders will jump in — but that will likely become a trap. This gold move was never bullish… you were just meant to believe it 😶‍🌫️⚠️ So guys, I hope you liked this overall market psychology plan and found it logical. Next week is going to be very interesting, in my opinion. Mark the levels I’ve shared and stay alert so you don’t miss any opportunities. Good luck for the upcoming week — I hope it turns out profitable for you. 🫵🏻🥇 By the way, what’s your view on gold for the upcoming week? Make sure to share it in the comments. ⬇️