Founder of Silent Index | Rutgers Senior Fellow | Advisor to @betint_ai | Researching Emerging Threats. Words in @WSJ, @thehill, @quillette and elsewhere.

Charleston, SC
Joined November 2015
Every information operation playbook already in use, from coordinated inauthentic networks to narrative laundering to targeting journalists, now has a financial payout attached when prediction markets are in the mix. Today in @WSJopinion on what to do about it. 🔗in comments.
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This is the first block trade ever recorded on US political races.
👀 Someone just bet $500,000 on Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to beat Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, per @betint_ai analysis of @Kalshi data. Unclear who placed the bet, but it was an institutional trader. Kalshi odds for Abbott victory currently stand at 68% cnn.com/2026/10/27/politics/…
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Alex Goldenberg retweeted
This is the first block trade ever recorded on US political races, according to our data. There was also a $100k block trade filed just minutes later on the Republicans to maintain control of the Senate.
👀 Someone just bet $500,000 on Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to beat Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, per @betint_ai analysis of @Kalshi data. Unclear who placed the bet, but it was an institutional trader. Kalshi odds for Abbott victory currently stand at 68% cnn.com/2026/10/27/politics/…
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Alex Goldenberg retweeted
In my first report for @CFR_org, I assess the promise and peril of prediction markets tied to U.S. elections and propose nonpartisan reforms to prevent insider trading, strengthen public trust, and protect retail traders. cfr.org/reports/betting-on-d…
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Alex Goldenberg retweeted
👀 Someone just bet $500,000 on Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to beat Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, per @betint_ai analysis of @Kalshi data. Unclear who placed the bet, but it was an institutional trader. Kalshi odds for Abbott victory currently stand at 68% cnn.com/2026/10/27/politics/…
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Alex Goldenberg retweeted
BREAKING: BETINT x CNN coverage of a $500K block trade on Kalshi placed on Republican Greg Abbott to win re-election. Read below:
👀 Someone just bet $500,000 on Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to beat Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, per @betint_ai analysis of @Kalshi data. Unclear who placed the bet, but it was an institutional trader. Kalshi odds for Abbott victory currently stand at 68% cnn.com/2026/10/27/politics/…
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Alex Goldenberg retweeted
Very soon we're going to have ETFs that track how, say, a given political party is doing in the prediction markets.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi are joining forces to build the next generation of financial markets. The Dow launched in 1896. The S&P 500 in 1957. The idea was simple: bring individual stocks together into a single benchmark, giving people a clearer view of the broader market. Over time, products built around those benchmarks transformed investing. Index funds, ETFs, futures, and options gave investors ways to gain diversified market exposure and hedge broad market swings. These indices became foundations of global finance. More than $20 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 alone. Today, this structure extends beyond stocks to bonds, commodities, currencies, and more. The next step is to bring that structure to the events that shape everyone’s lives. Through this partnership, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will work together to create indices composed of Kalshi event contracts. Think about what that opens up. An index of political power. An index of supply chain risk. An index tracking AI’s impact on employment. An index of sports outcomes that affect broadcasters, advertisers, cities, and small businesses. An index of weather risks that shape harvests, energy demand, and business revenues. Each would bundle event contracts into a single indicator, helping people understand how related risks are evolving. Over time, products built around these indices could offer diversified exposure to those events and new ways to hedge their impact. The events that shape our lives could become as easy to track and gain exposure to as the S&P 500.
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Alex Goldenberg retweeted
A federal judge on Monday refused to throw out the insider trading indictment against Gannon Van Dyke, the US solder accused of making $400,000 by betting on Polymarket about Nicolas Maduro's ouster. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty. Trial is slated for December.
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It takes fewer people to produce more output. That will start to hit the job market soon, and then everything else.
Microsoft is offering buyouts to 60,000(!) employees. Headcount and revenue growth is really starting to diverge at tech companies.
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Alex Goldenberg retweeted
Media is changing at AI speed: the open web deteriorating, search shriveling, LLMs rising, hyper-personalization surging, old revenue models breaking. •AI threatens to finish what the algorithms started: wholly upending journalism as we know it axios.com/2026/10/24/axios-a…
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Alex Goldenberg retweeted
“AI’s role in cyberterrorism is likely to be the same as the internet’s: an amplified capacity to produce and disseminate propaganda, confusion, and political manipulation,” @ibogost argues. theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/1…
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Jan 6, threats to journalists, and lobbyists hedging against clients. This NEXTPredict panel went places. Loved @chucktodd moderating @MondaireJones, @mattjwein, @TavisRendell and Sean Guillory of @betint_ai. 10 takeaways 🧵 1/11
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Alex Goldenberg retweeted
NEW: There's been over $1.4 billion in trading on prediction markets about the 2026 midterms, according to a new CNN analysis. @Kalshi is nearing $1.1b, @Polymarket is at $340m, @ForecastEx has $6m. This will rise as we reach the finish line cnn.com/2026/10/23/politics/…
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Alex Goldenberg retweeted
New from Betting Intelligence (BETINT) The Secretary of Defense is now openly saying what we at BETINT have been sounding the alarm on for months. open.substack.com/pub/betbre… From @AlexWGoldenberg
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Shootings, firebombs, Chinese bot farms and cheap weaponized drones are converging on data centers whose physical security sits in a gray area. New in The Hill with Robert Liscouski, DHS's first Assistant Secretary for Infrastructure Protection: thehill.com/opinion/national…
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Circling back to this in light of the Quest Diagnostics hack.
We are years if not months away from accepting that we unfortunately live in a post privacy era.
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Probability AI agents were used?
Quest Diagnostics has been hacked. Patient data was exposed. They serve roughly half of U.S. hospitals and physicians. Investigation ongoing.
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SoCal Strategies offered private election data to prediction market traders.
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