BIJAN BREAKS LOOSE 💨 🏈 NFL Dish #4 (10/25) 🍽️ 𝐁𝐢𝐣𝐚𝐧 𝐑𝐨𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟏𝟔.𝟓 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐡 Cooked w/ @AltLineDemon 🤝 @SC_FFB LIKE IF TAILING ❤️ - Robinson has been one of the most explosive running backs in football this season, leading the NFL in rushing grade (90.9) while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He’s cleared this line in 5/6 games this season, including 4 straight, with an average longest rush of 34.3 yards per game. He only needs one run of 17+ yards, something he’s consistently been able to produce regardless of his overall rushing workload. - Robinson’s advanced rushing numbers have been outstanding. He ranks 4th among RBs with 15 runs of 10+ yards, has forced 24 missed tackles and is averaging 4.7 yards after contact per attempt. His 13.5% explosive run rate ranks in the 84th percentile, while his 2.9 yards before contact per carry ranks in the 88th percentile. He’s already recorded seven runs of 20+ yards this season, tied for the most in the NFL. - San Francisco has struggled in several areas that directly benefit Bijan’s running style. The 49ers have allowed the 5th-most yards before contact per carry to opposing RBs (1.5), rank 5th-worst in stuff rate (16.9%) and 25th in run-game missed tackle rate. Those weaknesses give Bijan opportunities to reach the second level, where his speed, vision and ability to break tackles make him especially dangerous. Even 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan acknowledged the threat this week, saying that if Bijan gets a lane, “he’s gone.” - Brian Robinson has officially been ruled out with a hamstring injury, removing Atlanta’s primary backup RB and creating an opportunity for Bijan to handle additional carries. The Falcons have been one of the most committed rushing offenses in football, running on 49.2% of their offensive plays, the 4th-highest rate in the NFL. In games with 55%+ of offensive snaps, Bijan is over this line in 5/5 games this season. With Brian out, he should see north of 75% of the snaps regardless of the score. - Atlanta enters as roughly a 2.5-point underdog, giving them a realistic path to maintaining their rushing attack throughout the game rather than being forced to abandon it. - Bijan has already shown he can break explosive runs against quality defenses, and San Francisco’s issues with missed tackles and allowing runners into the second level fit his strengths perfectly. With how explosive he’s been this season and Brian Robinson out, we like Bijan to break another 17+ yard run against the 49ers. 📊 Data via @PropsMadness Use code PROPKITCHEN for 25% off your first purchase! 📣 Turn notifications on for daily prop bets! #NFL #NFLPicks #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #GamblingX

FADE HIM AGAIN 📉 🏀 PK Dish #3 (10/24) 🍽️ 𝐉𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐧 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐔𝐍𝐃𝐄𝐑 𝟖.𝟓 𝐑𝐞𝐛 + 𝐀𝐬𝐭 Cooked w/ @SC_FFB 🤝 @AltLineDemon LIKE IF TAILING ❤️ - Green’s role in Phoenix is still built much more around scoring than creating for others or crashing the glass. He averaged just 3.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists last season and has stayed under this line in 8 of his last 12 games while averaging only 7.0 R+A. In the season opener, Green finished with just 2 rebounds and 3 assists despite remaining involved offensively and attempting 12 shots. - Since joining Phoenix, Green is averaging only 5.5 potential assists and 6.2 rebound chances per game when sharing the floor with Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks. Those opportunity numbers already make it difficult for a score-first guard to consistently reach 9 combined rebounds and assists, and Phoenix has added even more competition for those stats. Miles Bridges gives them another versatile wing who can handle, rebound and create, while their active 7’2 rookie center adds another strong presence on the glass. - Green’s play style fits the under as well. He is naturally a score-first guard who tends to finish possessions rather than consistently create them for teammates. Booker remains the primary offensive initiator, while Green is often attacking closeouts, getting downhill or looking for his own shot. He can have a productive scoring game without coming close to this number in the peripheral categories. - Golden State has played at a bottom-10 pace through its first two games after finishing 11th-slowest in pace last season. Green has stayed under this line in 10 of 15 games against teams in the bottom half of the league in pace, and a slower game naturally reduces the total number of possessions available for rebounds and assists. - Golden State’s smaller lineups create some risk for extra guard rebounds, but Green still needs 9 combined rebounds and assists to beat us. He only had 5 RA in the season opener against Portland, and with Booker controlling most of the creation, Bridges and Brooks competing for secondary opportunities and Phoenix adding more size around him, we don’t see enough rebound or assist volume for a score-first player like Green to consistently get there. We like him to stay under this line against Golden State. Best Odds: -139 DraftKings 📊 Data via @PropsMadness Use code PROPKITCHEN for 25% off your first purchase! 📣 Turn notifications on for daily prop bets! #NBA #NBAPicks #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #GamblingX