Polymarket is ratting out hundreds of traders a day to the FBI. The days of the "truth machine" are far behind. They just created their own 16 person team led by a former FBI agent (Shana Bautista) to track midterms insiders. The team doesn't just monitor your trades. They collect and cross-references: - Social media accounts and posts - Data from banking partners - Device IDs linking multiple wallets they have turned the platform into a Panopticon reporting 100s of "suspects" to regulators every day. Their team brags about how easily they routinely link wallets to real-world identities. One of the latest guy they got arrested was a campaign staffer making "thousands of dollars" trading on unreleased polls. is it really necessary to track every user so aggressively to catch a few guys making $1000 ?

Agree. If you want to dig deeper, more is here: polyguana.net/research/predi… I do find this particularly demotivating. The churn

Hey Michael. Same here, but from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Hyperliquid. Access is free. polyguana.net/predictions/mi…

0.3% of wallet generate 70% of Polymarket's volume. that's only 10k wallets out of 3.2M. Whales are carrying the platform. The concentration is INSANE: - Top 0.3% of wallets: 70% total volume - Top 1%: 80.3% - Remaining 99%: 19.7% But trading profits are even more concentrated: - Top 100: 28.6% of all profits - Top 1,000: 55% - Top 10,000: 79.4% So if you are not in these 10k (0.3%) you probably have a negative PnL And that's how things are supposed to work. It's the basic economic cycle of a trading platform : The platform attract retails -> retail attract whales -> whales create volume -> volume entails fees for the platform. So if you ever ask yourself why Polymarket (or any other platform) tend to resolve controversial markets in favor of whales. Remember that you are not the one making them money, whales are.

Case Study: prediction-market-census.pag…

Leverage for Prediction Markets will never be big. At best it's a niche product. Each dot is a type of Polymarket trader with 5x leverage, priced so the lender breaks even. Further right = more of them end up better off. Higher = the lender makes money on them. Bigger = more of the volume. No group reaches 50%. In every one, most traders end up worse off with leverage than without. Now look at the two dots furthest right, pros and sports bettors. Both are below zero: the lender loses money on them. The highest dots? Retail and bonders, the people who want leverage most and get hurt by it. And the giant dot is whales, almost three-quarters of all the money. They're sitting on cash. They don't need a loan. So it loses money on the traders it helps and makes money on the ones it hurts. That's a niche, not a market. The audience for leverage is thin / no in the market yet. Full case study in comments

The CFTC is cracking down on Sports prediction markets. It just banned exchanges from proposing new type of sports contracts. Looks like regulator are tying to slowly choke out sports markets The CFTC contacted @Novig and @ProphetX and ordered them to take down the following markets : - Who scores the 1st points in a basketball game? - Will any NFL end with a final score never seen before? - Will an MLB game produce a never-before-seen score? - Who will score the 1st point in a Football game? They argue that these categories are prone to manipulaton. If you remember it's the same argument that they used to force Kalshi to ban Sports mention markets Regulations are dropping at an increasing rate : - July: CFTC forces Kalshi to ban bets on sport mention. - September: The CFTC send a warning about "manipulation risks" in mention markets in general - October (Now): The CFTC bans first goal and scorigami markets ---- next ---- - The CFTC bans mention markets ? - The CFTC drops sports market entirely (reclassied as gambling) ? Is the Trump admin starting to turn against prediction markets ? Or is the CFTC just trying to hedge their bets for when Democrats come to power ?

NEW STUDY : Polymarket KOLs are bad traders and you will lose money if you follow them. We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof. A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media. Here's what they discovered 👇 1. Their calls are trash. Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades. On those exact same bets: - avg. KOL return: +12.3% - avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4% If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity. 1. KOLs are WORST traders than average. > 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading. > 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money. So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha. If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves. If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.

Kalshi just got scammed by a fake Indian Chief ! They wanted to sign a deal with a tribe to launch a Kalshi branded prediction market. but the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR. Kalshi is trying to gain the support of Native American by bribing they with juicy partnerships. They thought they had struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, Chief of the Quassarte tribe. Except Wilson Yargee was not the real chief. the next the actual Chief of the Quassarte denounced the deal saying : - His leadership NEVER approved the deal. - He only discovered it through a CNN report. - The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe. Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (legit) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions. Now the legality of the deal rests on this succession dispute : > The legitimist faction behind Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief. > The impostor faction, backed by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief. Kalshi thought they were smart trying to buy the support of tribes before their supreme court case and now they are stuck solving Tribal succession disputes. Well deserved.

Robinhood allegedly preparing a NINE-FIGURE grant program for Robinhood Chain. That's >$100M for builders. Most of it likely going to Prediction Markets. that's *at least* 100x the previous $1M grant program they announced in February. This will make RobinHood chain's activity EXPLODE. The initial hype and grant program made growth skyrocket when they launched the chain in July. in only 2 months from launch RobinHood achieved: - $53.3B in monthly DEX volume - 10.8M daily transactions peak - Over $1B in stablecoin supply But since mid September, the momentum started fading : - Daily transactions down 42% - Active addresses down 31% - Bridge TVL down from $855M in September to $648M now. I see this play as a massive cash injection by Robinhood to try and regain their early momentum If we go by the previous program the money will be distributed to teams building : - Tokenized asset infrastructure - AI-powered financial services - Credit and lending protocols - *Prediction market infrastructure* This is an amazing opportunity for builders in the space. Because let's be real, Polymarket/Kalshi never really went out of their ways to reward builders. No real grants. No promotion. No technical support. So If you are a Prediction Market builder I strongly recommend you look into the incoming RobinHood grant program. the future of Prediction Markets might be on RobinHood chain.