Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.
Joined April 2024
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very much possible but if they hope to avoid what's coming after midterm with this little trick they are deluded
Polymarket is ratting out hundreds of traders a day to the FBI.
The days of the "truth machine" are far behind.
They just created their own 16 person team led by a former FBI agent (Shana Bautista) to track midterms insiders.
The team doesn't just monitor your trades. They collect and cross-references:
- Social media accounts and posts
- Data from banking partners
- Device IDs linking multiple wallets
they have turned the platform into a Panopticon reporting 100s of "suspects" to regulators every day.
Their team brags about how easily they routinely link wallets to real-world identities.
One of the latest guy they got arrested was a campaign staffer making "thousands of dollars" trading on unreleased polls.
is it really necessary to track every user so aggressively to catch a few guys making $1000 ?
Quant Chad retweeted
I think I've identified the Predict Fun Exploit
The third party responsible for the hack is likely @ApidogHQ & @algolia
Archived dev.predict.fun pages identify Apidog as the documentation platform, with Algolia powering its configured search.
1. predict fun accidentally left their website’s administrative "search index keys" open to the public on an API doc.
2. Using that key, hackers injected 36 fake, poisonous search results (ADT-N-0 to ADT-N-z). Because they mapped to every letter and number, typing any character triggered them.
3. When developers or users searched for anything on the docs site, the database instantly fetched the hacker's fake, infected data.
4. The website used a risky coding method (dangerouslySetInnerHTML) to load search results, blindly running the hacker's hidden script without checking it first.
5. Once the script ran, hackers could spy on the browser, hijack active sessions, and steal wallet keys or redirect crypto transactions.
🚨 HACK ALTERT : Predictdofun drained for $400,000 of user funds !
User's wallets are being drained and laundered through Tornado Cash.
trader @dethective saw $5,000 disappear from his account.
New victims keep emerging every minute.
Onchain investigator @Naeven_ identified:
- 19 affected wallets
- 105 ETH (~$260K) traced
- Funds bridged from BNB Chain to Ethereum
Stolen assets subsequently forwarded to Tornado Cash
but it's likely an underestimate as predictdotfun themselves report >400,000 USDT in losses.
Predict dot fun is compromised, keep away from it.
Quant Chad retweeted
🚨 HACK ALTERT : Predictdofun drained for $400,000 of user funds !
User's wallets are being drained and laundered through Tornado Cash.
trader @dethective saw $5,000 disappear from his account.
New victims keep emerging every minute.
Onchain investigator @Naeven_ identified:
- 19 affected wallets
- 105 ETH (~$260K) traced
- Funds bridged from BNB Chain to Ethereum
Stolen assets subsequently forwarded to Tornado Cash
but it's likely an underestimate as predictdotfun themselves report >400,000 USDT in losses.
Predict dot fun is compromised, keep away from it.
We are aware of a small number of users who have experienced unauthorized transfers of funds from their wallets, totaling approximately 400,000 USDT.
Our preliminary investigation suggests that our API documentation site, which is hosted by a third-party provider, may have been compromised, potentially affecting a small number of users over a short period of time. The API documentation site has been taken offline as a precaution and will remain offline until our investigation is complete.
At Predict.fun, we take the security of our users and their funds extremely seriously. As such, we will fully reimburse all affected users for any funds lost as a direct result of this incident.
Once our investigation is complete, we will publish a full post-mortem detailing what happened and the steps we're taking to prevent similar incidents in the future.
RT @0xinternetchild: The Ballon d'Or leak was real !
2h before the ceremony, traders discovered an unreferenced article on xitter.cf/iok…
Agree. If you want to dig deeper, more is here:
polyguana.net/research/predi…
I do find this particularly demotivating. The churn
So you quit your job to become an affiliate.
Day one, you open the spreadsheet. Your typical referral is worth 61 cents a year.
And it’s getting worse:
→ The crowd is leaving. New traders: 8,250 a day in March, 1,798 a day in October. Down 78%.
Big traders have halved too.
→ The fees come from whales, and whales already have a deal. Polymarket pays its biggest traders up to half their fees back directly. At that tier, your 20% would leave Polymarket 12 cents on the dollar.
Nobody in that deal needs your link.
→ Land one anyway? 1 in 79 newcomers is a whale. 71% of them aren’t one a month later (leaving).
Median payout since March: $39. Total.
To be fair, Polymarket deserves credit. Sharing revenue with the people who bring it users is the right call.
But it is too late.
Quant Chad retweeted
Points distribution #2 went out today
10000 Points + referral rewards distributed
Come join the fun: polyguana.net/points