Yes, I kept it. Investing Related Thoughts: https://nitter.gq/t.co/rhJdLWWtdc
Joined March 2025
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Looks like admin saw election results and just went “tHe fIrSt tWo yEaRs wErE mOdeRaTe. YoU wOn’T LiKe wHaT’S nExT.
Lame. Stock market is gonna suck.
Basically like with every new technology. When word replaced typewriters, contracts when from 20 pages to 200 for lawyers.
Just spent some time catching up with an old coworker, who now works at the VP level at a boutique investment bank
Was asking him about analyst use of AI and thought his insight was quite fascinating
More people are using AI now vs just few months ago, and it absolutely cuts down a lot of time from mundane tasks
Just tedious things like arranging logos on a deck or managing a contact log for investors would require analyst resources behind it.
Now an Associate or VP with Claude can just do it by themselves with minimal effort
However, the work hours have not gone down at all for the analysts. Since senior folks know about the capabilities of AI, they are now staffing analysts across more deals at any given time
Not only that, MDs are chasing after new mandates more often than before.
Directors are coming up with new tasks for their analysts, like maintaining tear sheets or comp sets on niche verticals. VPs are asking for more pages and trying to show more analysis to clients than before
In summary, the duration of any single task has gone down because of AI.
However, this has been offset with new work that the firm and group simply never had capacity to do before
Instead of reducing hours, it has opened up room for his group to chase after more revenue and provide better/faster work to existing clients.
Suspect this is also what is happening across many industries and companies, not just in banking or finance
Walked away with the reinforced belief that the entire job loss narrative of AI is just doomerism
Autumn Capital retweeted
Sad to see the Cybertruck going away when it was a useful way to learn who the dumbest, most gullible people were in your parents’ neighborhood
Autumn Capital retweeted
Trump promotes the architect of the governing strategy that led to the biggest midterm loss in fifty years
Autumn Capital retweeted
I'd argue he's actually wasting a lot of time.
Scoop: Cory Booker wastes no time hitting the 2028 trail axios.com/2026/11/05/cory-bo…
Autumn Capital retweeted
Everyone gets blindsided and Dunning-Krugered and all that. Nobody is immune.
What makes it notable is that the people Deva is talking about are people who pride themselves on specifically not doing that. Their mental frameworks, and first principles thinking and so forth.
Autumn Capital retweeted
Billionaires haven’t bought politicians outright to fight each other in the past because that would be a self-imposed wealth tax on the whole class.
Autumn Capital retweeted
NEWS: Ds review 181-page dossier from ex-Warren/Sanders staffers ID’ing hundreds of executives & corporations to target
Envisions “resignations of major CEOs, hauling people in, material restitution”
Tech giants, crypto, sports gambling, gas & more
washingtonsun.com/congress/d…
Autumn Capital retweeted
Give me a break, the polls and models provided the direction in contast to vibes and dumb insiders. And yes it's good that traders were smart enough to trust them. But the better election models were more confident about the outcome than the markets and got there more quickly.
Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.
I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.”
Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites.
Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%.
The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels.
Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people.
Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families.
Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full.
And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world.
For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened.
Prediction markets change that.
You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it.
That changes who holds power over information.
Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view.
Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it.
And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from.
Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do.
Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.
$FTAI. Is at the price it was *before* its extremely profitable, new foray into modular power. Something not even a part of the original thesis. A pure call option.
But now the name trades in sympathy with AI infra *and* aero macro 🙈
Crazy to see FTAI being obliterated today on the DC buildout fears while the other side of the business (Aerospace) is booming. What was supposed to be a nice optionality moving forward became an anchor to the name, draggng down the stock relentlessly.
Seeing StandardAero, AAR, GE and others being flatish on the day while FTAI puts a -10% goes to show you how poisonous the AI association has become. FTAI is now more of a GEV peer than the MRO space even though on EBITDA terms it is less than a third of the business for next year. There is zero nuance on this name.
Autumn Capital retweeted
Trying and failing to think of another group of American Robber Barons who've blundered their way into a more expensive political disaster than Silicon Valley. Southern Planters enjoyed a whole generation of complete lawlessness before the American voter smashed their asses. -OS
*reflexivity*
No way to know, but $APP seems like a ticking time bomb due to macro ad deterioration. Though if it beats, it will *rocket* on low expectations.
Tons of reflexivity here.
Autumn Capital retweeted
Bad policy, bad character make bad politics: erratic tariffs, impulsive Iran war, blanket pardons, apparent corruption, weaponized justice, ICE brutality, mountainous deficits, hiding Epstein, abandoning allies and coddling enemies. Hoping for a course correction, for the country and for my party.
Autumn Capital retweeted
Some dude in California running a 3-person company got voters to give him $4.2 billion by authoring a ballot measure, which passed
