The stupid adolescent ape is wrecking your military America.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has pushed out the Pentagon's top planning officer as President Donald Trump weighs new strikes against Iran, a source familiar with the situation tells CNN. cnn.it/4BCU2v6
Show me your budget and I'll show you your strategy - as a General once said.
The only way to reliably increase defence spending is to increase MoD DEL and that can only be done by taking it from somewhere else & taxing more. And it all needs to go into multi-year spending reviews to give everyone more investment confidence. Anything else is a fudge.
What options does Healey have to raise defence spending?
1⃣ Borrowing - Carney's Defence, Security and Resilience Bank. Not in the budget.
2⃣ Private Investment - as above and more PFIs, NWF & BBB.
3⃣ Cuts in other depts. - welfare, Net Zero, transport.
4⃣ Multilateral procurement - widen GCAP, 🇳🇱🇵🇱🇫🇮 joint procurement mechanism. reuters.com/business/finance…
The budget will buy the same number of Mars bars as it would have been able to. But as that number of Mars bars is likely insufficient there is now an entirely foreseeable row about it. The technical accounting line is going to be strained… it was resource, not funny money.
For those who felt positive this morning with regards defence telegraph.co.uk/politics/202…
Phil retweeted
Veterans sneering at the Op CABRIT WSM? WANKERS!! 180 days away from family in -20 holding NATO's flank in Estonia while you post shit from the sofa. Veterans with class lift up serving troops. Mocking sacrifice isn't cool, it's insecurity. Punching down is Walt behaviour.
He just won’t go away. There’s a few old men at the moment who just won’t go away.
Quoted in @Reuters on Israel’s election and Netanyahu’s political future.
Netanyahu may have lost his parliamentary majority, but he has survived politically. As I told Reuters, “He won by not losing.”
Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot currently has a clear path to forming a government. The real question now is whether Netanyahu will use another confrontation with Iran to reshape the political landscape and push for a national unity government under his leadership.
In Israel, the political crisis and the risk of another war with Iran are becoming increasingly intertwined.
@samianakhoul
reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
Phil retweeted
This is the Oxyrhynchus Hymn, dated to the late 200s AD. It is the earliest known Christian hymn manuscript with both lyrics and musical notation. A plain English rendering of the surviving words:
“Let all creation be silent.
Let the shining stars be still.
Let the rushing winds and rivers cease.
While we sing to the Father, Son, and Holy Spirit,
let every power answer: Amen, amen.
Strength, praise, and glory forever to God,
the only giver of all good things. Amen, amen.”
A lost decade. And it definitely feels like it.
There’s an opportunity here for both sides, and both sides have known the mid-terms would offer it for some time Im sure. Whether they can grasp it I’m somewhat doubtful - if not now though it won’t be for a long time.
Won’t be a better time for Iran to get a deal without getting mashed up further. In the long run they’re on the losing side of the equation. Of course they may very well not see it like that.
🇺🇸🇮🇷Regional mediators led by Qatar are trying to reach a diplomatic deal to restart negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and prevent the resumption of war after the midterm elections, three U.S., Israeli and regional sources say. My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/10/28/iran-wa…
Phil retweeted
P145 of Budget says that Treasury are taking 1.5bn out of MOD in 2027/8 and 2028/9 - they are banking savings from pension revaluation rather than leaving it with MOD.
You should go for a run.
There was once a shepherd who found a wolf caught in a snare at the edge of his pasture.
The wolf begged to be freed.
“I was hungry,” it said. “That is all. Spare me, and I will remember your mercy!”
The shepherd cut the rope.
The next night, three lambs were gone.
Again the shepherd found the wolf. Again it pleaded. Again the shepherd convinced himself that mercy was proof of his goodness.
By winter, half the flock was dead.
An old farmer finally asked him, “Why do you keep freeing it?”
The shepherd answered, “Because I refuse to become cruel.”
The farmer looked at the empty field and said, “Then understand what you have done. You were not merciful to the wolf. You were cruel to everything that trusted you to keep them safe.”
That’s the lesson.
Mercy without judgment isn’t virtue. When someone openly intends to destroy what has been entrusted to you, endless forgiveness doesn’t make you righteous. It makes everyone behind you pay for your vanity.
That’s a lot of attrition. It will really be dissipating the effect of attacks in aggregate. We’ve watched an arms race happen in real time and the cheap loses out to the expensive in this instance.
“Ukraine's air defenses have intercepted nearly 60% of Russian Geran-4 jet-powered attack drones over the past three months, with interception rates reaching 80% during some attacks, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said.
Fighter jets, including F-16s, Mirage aircraft, and MiG-29s, play a significant role in intercepting Russian jet-powered drones, according to the General Staff.
It did not mention interceptions rates of the more advanced Geran-5 drone.”
kyivindependent.com/ukraine-…
DIP and Budget 2026 match - so DIP gap closed. Pensions cost less so RDEL has been adjusted but treasury has provided the baseline figures and those match DIP. Why was MoD not allowed to keep that RDEL and re-deploy it? I don't know, it seems to be a thing across all depts.
The Budget and its consequences for defence - key measures announced in today's document:
1⃣ £15bn of previously uncertain funding confirmed for the DIP
2⃣ 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035 confirmed, with a 3% by 2030 target
3⃣ An extra £10bn for Ukraine
4⃣ A new defence financing taskforce to deploy £5bn over four years into British industry
5⃣ Treaty negotiations with 🇳🇱🇵🇱🇫🇮 to establish a joint-procurement mechanism
6⃣ Funding for defence technical colleges in Scotland and Wales
BUT
🧨 Around £5bn for defence is being found by cutting departmental spending, including from green infrastructure projects. £500m will be cut from hydrogen, £200m from carbon capture, £200m from the Warm Homes Plan and £200m from Great British Energy
🧨 Includes a general 1% reduction in spending across all departmental budgets and £1.7bn from unallocated contingency funds in the Treasury's capital reserves
🧨 The details for how the government will reach 3% by 2030 and 3.5% by 2035 not set out in the budget - its all been deferred to the 2027 spending review
When I saw the table in the red book this line of attack was inevitable as it looks like a cut.
Employers don't need to contribute as much to civil service pensions - so this reduction doesn't reduce MoD "buying power" as pension cost reduced. Inflation however! Pre-adj below
The graph now doing the rounds, based on the Budget and the WMS from June
questions-statements.parliam…
Interestingly the word "defence" appears in last years budget 39 times, this years budget 126 times.
John Healey signals that the new higher defence spending target of 3% of GDP by 2030 will in part be funded by reprioritising government spending. But it is also going to involve a lot of private finance.
The Chancellor sets out four initiatives ahead of the 2027 spending review when - very belatedly - the full costings for this increase in spending will be revealed:
- The launch of a "Defence Investment Task Force" to explore private sector financing options as well as teaming up with international allies
- The start of treaty negotiations with Finland, Poland and the Netherlands on the "Multilateral Defence Mechanism" which aims to facilitate joint defence equipment procurements, enabling the partner nations to benefit from economies of scale
- A push to get more private investment into defence "including public private partnerships"
- A new focus on defence for the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank - involving up to £5bn in investment over the next four years