Bob Ballinger

There will be lots of policy wonks giving you analysis in the coming days, and they will all have good points. But let me focus on some less policy-driven - but very real - reasons I think Republicans lost so handily last night. 1. People are tired. After working so hard for a seemingly impossible win in 2024, another (perhaps bigger and uglier) fight erupted in 2025 after Charlie was murdered that fractured the right, demoralized the base, and made people want to disentangle themselves from politics altogether. 2. Bad Republican candidates. For example, as much as Talarico makes the normal person’s skin crawl, Paxton, to many people, is worse. They see an uneasy look, an off-putting vibe, a storied past, and what appears to be apathy. Even people who loathe Talarico couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Paxton. 3. Trump doesn’t have his aura right now. Can’t even blame the media for this one. He comes across as dismissive of economic concerns. His Truth Social is pettier than ever. He’s making weird comments about people’s a**es (not kidding), making him come across as unserious when voters are hurting. This can be fine if things are getting done. But when they’re not, it’s just annoying. 4. The loss of Charlie. We may never know the extent of his unifying power and activism, but I think we understand it more now. His connection the White House, his finger on the pulse of conservative/independent concerns, his ability to bolster enthusiasm, his effectiveness in getting out the vote, especially among young men… All of that is now missing and sorely missed. There’s a lot more, of course. The war costing more than anyone wanted. Prices that are crushing the average family. Republican-approved immigration, causing huge demographic and cultural shifts, which are inherently destabilizing and demoralizing. Failure of congress to pass the SAVE Act and other important legislation. Democrats’ demure-but-deadly strategy to keep most of their candidates out of the headlines while doggedly getting out the vote. Republicans have a lot to learn in a short amount of time. Will we? All this to say… there’s reason to be concerned, yes, but not to be discouraged. God’s eternal plan of redemption is always going off without a hitch. He’s never taken aback. He never has anxiety. He’s never wondering what the outcomes will be. He’s in control. We trust in His total sovereignty while also recommitting ourselves in seeking the welfare of the city in which He has providentially placed us (Jeremiah 29:7). We’ve got work to do!