bripc23

Inside the chaotic final two minutes of Texas vs. Ohio State: Both teams faced highly controversial decisions. Here is how I would have handled them, in the order they played out. 1.) Ohio State’s timeout at 1:30 Texas snapped at 1:34, gained three yards, and created 2nd & 7. Ohio State immediately called timeout at 1:30. Ohio State was still slightly favored to win at that moment. I would have held the timeout for at least one more play. It would have been interesting to see how Texas handled 2nd & 7 with the clock running. This is the most debatable of my four recommendations. Holding the timeout was my preference, not a mandatory decision. 2.) Texas left time available on 1st & Goal Texas snapped 1st & Goal from the 1 around 1:03 with eight seconds remaining on the play clock. Texas could have drained another six or seven seconds before snapping. It also could have taken the play clock to one and used one of its three remaining timeouts. Those seconds became enormously valuable at the end. 3.) Ohio State should have let Texas score on 1st & Goal Facing 1st & Goal from the 1, Texas was likely to score a touchdown on the series more than 90% of the time. This is my strongest recommendation for how Ohio State should have handled the ending differently. Before the snap, I would have used an aggressive defensive stem to try to induce a false start. Once the ball was snapped, Ohio State’s defenders could strictly attack the football and attempt to force a turnover. Otherwise, they had to let the runner cross the goal line. Ohio State’s win probability declined by approximately five percentage points in the live markets when it got the stop. Texas failed to score, forced Ohio State to use its final timeout, and set the stage for a Texas score with very little time remaining. That was the best outcome for Texas and a clear success for the Longhorns. 4.) Texas’s borderline catastrophic clock management Texas snapped 3rd & Goal with 0:28 on the game clock and 17 seconds on the play clock while possessing all three timeouts. Texas should have allowed the play clock to run down, called timeout with approximately 13 seconds remaining, and then run its 3rd down play. This would have left Ohio State substantially less time if Texas scored. Texas had all three timeouts available, so hurting itself by allowing the clock to run down was not an issue. By scoring with 25 seconds left, Texas invited a scenario in which Ohio State could reach field goal range and win the game. My best estimate is that Texas’s clock management there cost it approximately seven to nine percentage points of win probability. This was a historic comeback for Texas and an instant classic. It was also a reminder that clock and timeout decisions can be every bit as consequential as the plays themselves. Both teams made choices during the final two minutes that could have caused the ending to unfold very differently.