Public opinion, political data. Visiting senior fellow, German Marshall Fund Former director of political research at Pew Research https://xitter.cf/t.co/26XJFRBraQ
Washington, DC
Joined February 2010
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Plus, over the past year, % of Hispanics who have an unfavorable view of ICE has risen 13 pts - from 54% to 67%.
pewresearch.org/short-reads/…
NEW: Views of ICE have turned more negative among Republicans and Democrats alike (even as a wide partisan gap remains). Americans view ICE more negatively than any of the other 11 agencies asked about in the latest @pewresearch survey.
ALT Bar chart showing Americans' views of 12 federal departments and agencies, based on a Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted in late September and early October.
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Dems have more midterm targets than they can afford — and they're sparring over where to spend the $$ they have.
More on the fault lines + early recriminations that could follow election day, w/@lisakashinsky, @LaurenFedor, @JasonBeeferman, @calenrazor
politico.com/news/2026/10/24…
This Wednesday will mark the 10th anniversary of this 'October surprise'
nytimes.com/2016/10/29/us/po…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
There's some difference of opinion re: Nov. 3, but less than most cycles in the past. Even the most optimistic non-insane Rs are like, "All these Senate races are toss-ups." Even the most optimistic non-insane Ds are like "We like our odds, but we'll believe it when we see it."
Ok, some of this is a reaction to the Trump era. But 6% of Democrats rating patriotism as a top value - by far the lowest for 12 values included - is ... something.
news.gallup.com/poll/716093/…
Pretty bleak week-before-election survey from @CBSNewsPoll. People aren't exactly brimming with optimism over a possible Democratic win. But about half think things will get worse if GOP holds their majorities.
cbsnews.com/news/poll-house-…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Lot of fear of people lying to polls. We don't have much evidence for it & don't need it to explain error. People uncomfortable sharing their choice are more likely to be in the now ~98% of people who don't respond than to take ~20 min survey to lie. Non-response much bigger deal
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Shorter NYT: It's really, really hard to win a Senate seat in a state that the other party's presidential nominee won by double digits.
NYT: Why Democrats Could Find It Hard to Win the Senate Despite Their Strong Polls
Democrats have a hefty advantage in national polls. President Trump is playing defense, campaigning through deep-red corners of the country that he won by overwhelming margins just two years ago. And assumptions that Democrats will win control of Congress have become conventional wisdom in many quarters, from longtime political observers to social media to the oddsmakers in prediction markets.
But as Democratic dreams of midterm victories grow bigger, some strategists quietly worry that expanding expectations are crowding out signs of a more challenging political reality.
Control of the Senate hinges on victories in red states that favored Mr. Trump by significant margins in 2024, including some that Democrats have not won in decades. Republicans are outspending them by eye-popping amounts in key races. And after its performance in 2024, the Democratic Party as a brand still remains unpopular among voters.
nytimes.com/2026/10/24/us/po…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
📊 We just released the 53rd Edition of the Harvard Youth Poll, the country's top look at the political opinions of Americans aged 18-29. Our Harvard Public Opinion Project members (@HarvardPoll) break down the top headlines! youtube.com/watch?v=m9QXUH-P…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
#earlyvote afternoon update: at least 23 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳
election.lab.ufl.edu/early-v…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
This.
Harvard poll of young voters out this week showed enthusiasm to vote *lower* than in recent midterms.
Carroll Doherty retweeted
View of East Potomac from my flight today — spotted work crews, debris and many fewer trees than before.
Breaking: Trump says he'll close East Potomac golf course Nov 15 and begin his overhaul
"The current Course is old, broken, dilapidated, and of no further use or effect," Trump wrote.
Officials didn't immediately respond to Qs about cost
w @RickMaese
washingtonpost.com/sports/20…
In which @nataliemj10 tells it like it is (does anyone still say that?) about the Wedgewood polling scandal.
"People like the idiots behind Wedgewood, and, to a lesser extent, Median, make it harder for the rest of us who are absolutely busting our butts to do good public opinion research." stuckmiddle.substack.com/p/f…
Big wave, small wave, no wave? No matter what happens on Nov. 3, the 1994 'Republican revolution' stands alone among 'wave' elections. In my latest for @thedispatch I look back at that historic midterm and what it means today.
thedispatch.com/article/repu…
Memo to '28 wannabes: corruption likely to remain a dominant campaign issue. Here are the top 2 issues in importance for midterms in @HarvardIOP's annual youth poll.
% extremely important:
Cost of living - 65%
Corruption in govt - 56%
Nothing else more than 47% (healthcare costs)
iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/5…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
The difference between Dems doing well or even just “ok” on Nov. 3 vs doing something historic will depend on how many voters under 30 actually vote. This poll matches every x-tab I’ve seen this cycle. GenZ has shifted sharply against the party in power. The only unknown is the turnout
🚨Democrats lead Republicans 63%–26% among likely voters ages 18–29 in our Harvard Youth Poll.
63% of #GenZ say their midterm vote is opposition to Trump and his policies.
Young voters are poised to deliver a sharp rebuke. Here’s what’s driving it. 🧵
Carroll Doherty retweeted
President Trump says the economy is great. Americans, overwhelmingly, disagree. With early voting underway in the midterms, what does the data show?
My answer, in three formats:
Story: nytimes.com/2026/10/18/busin…
Podcast: nytimes.com/2026/10/21/podca…
Video: nytimes.com/video/business/1…
Trump's never really persuaded the GOP base that the Ukrainians are the bad guys (or, for that matter, that Putin is a 'humanitarian'). In July, @ChicagoCouncil found that
61% of Republicans (and 68% of Amercans overall) favored Ukraine's admission to NATO. docs.google.com/document/d/1…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
New: Georgia Rs are counting on Rick Jackson to save them from a wipeout in Nov — if Trump doesn’t get in the way.
“If Rick Jackson weren’t running, we would all be in a lot of trouble,” said a GA-based GOP strategist + Jackson ally. w/@AlecAHernandez:
politico.com/news/2026/10/21…
Would a big Democratic wave Nov. 3 finally cure the party's persistent malaise? 43% of Democratic LV's in new NYT/Siena poll are dissatisifed with the party, more than the share of Republicans dissatisifed with the GOP (16%).
nytimes.com/2026/10/21/us/po…
