Land Use | Transportation | Local Government | 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇮🇱🇹🇼
Silver Spring, Maryland
Joined February 2012
- Tweets8.5K
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Casey A retweeted
I don't know why Nate Silver has to "live down" predicting a 30% chance Trump would win in 2016. Things with 30% likelihood still happen all the time! 30% of the time in fact!
Listened to Nate Silver on Ezra this morning. One of the least popular things I could do on this website is defend Nate Silver, so challenge accepted.
His "vibes" have been directionally correct in every Election. In 2012, he fought against the polling unskewers making claims that Romney would win based on undersampling of Republicans.
In 2016, his model was famously FAR more bullish on Trump than any others. He was the only modeler who understood the possibility of correlated polling error.
In 2020, he repeatedly emphasized the higher than usual uncertainty due to the pandemic.
In 2022, he fought back against pollsters (NY Times!) basically ignoring their own data to buy into the Red Wave.
In 2024, he said that even though his model was 50/50, his gut said Trump would win.
All in all, a better record than anyone else on Election Twitter.
Casey A retweeted
It’s not progressive to let public spaces and public services become unsafe and unpleasant due to a refusal to enforce rules
slowboring.com/p/live-your-v…
Casey A retweeted
i wish there were an easy way to represent myself as concerned about ai safety and also very sympathetic to skepticism about literal "doom"ism at the level of "AI is going to kill everybody."
i think rogue swarms becoming a semi-permanent invasive species on the internet would be p bad, but not exactly p(doom).
is p(bad) a thing? cuz that's me: I'm worried about p(bad).
Casey A retweeted
To be more blunt - if you pick your leaders on the basis of who can win a hyper-competitive attention war amongst the 1-2% of the population brain poisoned enough to watch >2 hours of political video a day then your faction is going to constantly make poor strategic decisions.
Casey A retweeted
“Roughly two-thirds of the decline in labor force participation over the past year reflects a shift in the population toward older Americans”
Looking forward to everyone finally realizing that all the worry about immigration and jobs amid an aging population were stupid distractions.
Casey A retweeted
It’s nice that we have a mayor-elect who is committed to zoning reform but to have a snowball’s chance in hell of relaunching multifamily construction in this city we need to address the regulatory burdens beyond land use.
So the District is well and truly f***ed dc.urbanturf.com/articles/bl…
Fewer cars and more dumpsters sounds pretty good tbh
Dumpsters everywhere will be worse than the disease. Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced this week that the “containerization” rollout is slated to wrap by 2031.
ow.ly/u3z150Zvc0C
Casey A retweeted
my left-leaning development & business friends seem happy to call out bad DSA ideas but my conservative-leaning ones who post extensively about a city mayor are uncharacteristically mute when it comes to presidential-level state capitalism which is weird if you think about it
My least techno-optimistic view is that manned space exploration is a waste of money
Casey A retweeted
Ignorance of DMV’s demographics is an ongoing challenge. The District gets nearly all local media coverage, for instance, yet it’s only the 4th largest jurisdiction in the region. Fairfax, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties all have larger populations.
If @DominicJPino is going to double down on his bad take on @wmata I wish he would at least try to be wrong in an interesting, thoughtful or entertaining way
“I recently told you that D.C. transit only has one problem: It costs too much. … That made D.C. Twitter lose its mind.”
@DominicJPino responds to his critics.
🔗 Read the original argument: wapo.st/42nR9Ok
Casey A retweeted
Keep posting this so people don’t forget how truly bad this event was.
Don’t let people gaslight you into thinking it was peaceful and worthy of 1500+ pardons and slush fund payoffs.
I don’t understand why @ggwash and @dcyimbys and @betterDCregion aren’t endorsing (or at least talking up) @RiniSampath - seems like we can all agree that @Janeese4DC and @kenyanmcduffie leave something to be desired, and RCV means you can send a message without wasting your vote
We’re laser focused on building a coalition that wants DC government to deliver on its fundamental municipal promises. Join us! riniformayor.com/donate
Casey A retweeted
One reason it's so difficult to get elites to think clearly about public transit in America is that for many of them, buses are just invisible. A place served only by buses has "no public transit" no matter how great the bus service is.
@wmataGM
Whatever you think about Janeese vs McDuffie, the back and forth is pretty great by campaign standards - DC has two candidates vying to be the choice of YIMBY voters and debating the substance of what needs to happen to get more housing @alexbaca @alpert @justupthepike
Back to the @dcyimbys questionnaire on RFK since this is important to me. JLG says she would not revisit the Council decision to require standard zoning of the campus, while McDuffie would. But she will push to get housing built faster? This is magical thinking.
