Silver continues to trade on a softer footing, hovering near an 11-month low, while gold’s ability to hold around USD 4,000 has pushed the gold-silver (XAUXAG) ratio higher towards 74.50. A sustained break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 74.66 could signal further relative weakness in silver, potentially opening the door to 82.30, the 61.8% retracement of the 2025–26 decline. In a more pronounced downside scenario, a continued rise in the ratio towards the high 90s would imply silver trading in the low USD 40s, assuming gold remains near USD 4,000. While such an outcome is not our base case, silver has clearly lost some of its earlier momentum, with concerns about economic growth and fading speculative appetite weighing on sentiment. Silver’s tendency to amplify gold’s moves has also become a headwind as momentum-driven buying subsides. As with gold, much of the recent selling appears to have been driven by momentum-focused hedge funds, reflected in a decline in the managed money net long to a 32-month low of just 3,746 contracts. In contrast, ETF demand has remained relatively resilient, with holdings rising to 25.1k tonnes, a seven-month high, from a July low of 24.3k tonnes. This divergence suggests that while speculative positioning has weakened considerably, longer-term investor interest remains intact. For now, the key technical level to watch is 74.66 on the ratio, with a sustained break potentially pointing to further silver underperformance. Conversely, a rejection at this level could provide some near-term relief, with initial support around 72. Ultimately, gold remains the main source of directional guidance, while a sustained recovery in silver will likely depend on renewed momentum across the broader precious metals complex.